Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Tampa Bay Downs
Friday - April 12, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

TAM-1   WIN (5/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/2)-(5/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/2)-(5/4/2)-(5/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/2)-(2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/4/2)-(2/5)-(4/1/2) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TAM-2   WIN (2/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/5)-(2/5/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5)-(2/5/4/6)-(2/5/4/6) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (2/5)-(4/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/5)-(4/1/2)-(5/4/7/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
TAM-3   WIN (4/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/2)-(4/1/2/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/1/2)-(4/1/2/6)-(4/1/2/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/1/2)-(5/4/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/1/2)-(5/4/7/6)-(6/2/9/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-4   WIN (5/4/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/7/6)-(5/4/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/7/6)-(5/4/7/6)-(5/4/7/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/7/6)-(6/2/9/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/4/7/6)-(6/2/9/4)-(4/5/3/7/8) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
TAM-5   WIN (6/2/9/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/9/4)-(6/2/9/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/9/4)-(6/2/9/4)-(6/2/9/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/9/4)-(4/5/3/7/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/2/9/4)-(4/5/3/7/8)-(1/3/4/8/6) 100 $1.00 $100 
TAM-6   WIN (4/5/3/7/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/5/3/7/8)-(4/5/3/7/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/5/3/7/8)-(4/5/3/7/8)-(4/5/3/7/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/5/3/7/8)-(1/3/4/8/6) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (4/5/3/7/8)-(1/3/4/8/6)-(8/10/4/1/9) 125 $1.00 $125 
TAM-7   WIN (1/3/4/8/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/3/4/8/6)-(1/3/4/8/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/3/4/8/6)-(1/3/4/8/6)-(1/3/4/8/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/3/4/8/6)-(8/10/4/1/9) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (1/3/4/8/6)-(8/10/4/1/9)-(5/7/2/10) 100 $1.00 $100 
TAM-8   WIN (8/10/4/1/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/10/4/1/9)-(8/10/4/1/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/10/4/1/9)-(8/10/4/1/9)-(8/10/4/1/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/10/4/1/9)-(5/7/2/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
TAM-9   WIN (5/7/2/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/7/2/10)-(5/7/2/10/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/7/2/10)-(5/7/2/10/1)-(5/7/2/10/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
TAM-1   04/12/2024 5400ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($22K) 4UP ALL PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BIG BUCKSALOT Mar20 Mar08 Feb02 Dec27 Nov29 (gatis chris)IORIO MELISSA 113 10.00    
CUPID'S DUDE Mar30 Feb14 Jan26 Nov04 Oct07 (potts wayne)MENESES MARCOS 122 4.00 5% 19.00    
DEEP FAITH Mar27 Mar01 Feb14 Jan27 Dec15 (rigattieri john)CENTENO E 118 6.00    
TWO BY TWO Mar13 Mar01 Feb10 Dec30 Sep14 (ness jam)GALLARDO A 118 3.50 19% 4.20    
PRINCE MARCO Apr03 Mar06 Feb04 Apr03 Feb08 (simone michael)CAMACHO SAMY 118 1.40 55% 0.80    
SCR  WINTER'S GHOST Mar30 Feb25 Jan20 Jan12 Dec16 (rigattieri j)ARROYO S 118 4.50    
 
TAM-2   04/12/2024 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($20K) 3 ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MR. LEFTY Mar22 Feb28 Feb17 Jan19 Dec29 (munoz )ROJAS EDUARDO 120 3.00    
SCALLYWAG (GB) Mar22         (rigattieri john)CENTENO E 120 1.80 68% 0.50    
BIGLY DEAL Mar10 Jan12 Aug06 Jul08   (delgado jor)GONZALEZ MELVIS 120 10.00    
MEGA GLORIOUS         (ellebracht gary)FERRER C 120 6.00    
CHARLICITO Mar03 Feb17       (cascallare)URDANETA J 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
Z RACES Mar22 Mar03 Jun25 May19   (werneth rober)FUENTES MARIO 120 10.00    
HORSESHOE PATSY Mar24 Feb16 Jan07 Dec20 Oct07 (rigattier)MALDONADO GABRIEL 115 5.00    
 
TAM-3   04/12/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($21.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TOOMUCHAINTENOUGH Mar03 Jan31 Jan12     (bennett gerald)CAMACHO SAMY 120 4.00 34% 2.00    
UNCAPTURED WARRIOR Mar22 Feb11 Jan12 Dec01 Oct28 (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 123 5.00 6% 15.60    
HOME SICK Mar22 Feb21 Jul13 Jun17 May31 (cahill steven)IORIO MELISSA 118 10.00    
TAKESCHARGESMILING Dec20 Oct13       (rigattieri john)CENTENO E 118 1.80 36% 1.80    
SIR ROBERT HALL Mar22 Jun17 May29 Apr30 Apr14 (o'connell kathle)FERRER C 123 12.00    
MR. BONES Apr03 Mar22 Feb11 Jan27 Jan06 (rice kevin)MENESES MARCOS 123 6.00    
TUSCAN RULER Mar22 Mar08 Feb16 Jan14 Dec20 (bennett )GALLARDO A 118 15.00    
PISTOL OR SHOTGUN Oct20 Apr21 Mar23 Feb17 Jan15 (moysey chelse)SOSA LAUREANO 123 5.00    
 
TAM-4   04/12/2024 5400ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($18K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:59
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DRILL'S VALENTINE Mar23 Jan19 Dec15 Nov25 Jul01 (chavez a)VILLA-GOMEZ H 122 6.00    
OUR LITTLE TIGER Mar15 Mar02 Jan11 Dec07 Nov14 (o'connell kath)CAMACHO SAMY 122 4.50    
FOXGLOVE Mar30 Mar08 Feb18 Mar10 Feb08 (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 122 4.50    
WICCA WISDOM Apr05 Jan03 Nov29 Nov02 Oct10 (orantes yoni )GONZALEZ ALEX 122 2.50 6% 14.80    
CALENDULA Mar30 Mar15 Mar01 Feb18 Jan24 (mendie)ALMEDINA MARIANGELYS 112 3.00 52% 0.90    
TEMPEREYA Mar02 Feb16 Jan28 Dec08 Nov18 (smith robe)FERRER C 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
SEIVER Mar30 Mar09 Feb11 Jan26 Jan05 (barron rory)ALLEN D 122 10.00 6% 16.90    
LYRICAL Apr03 Mar15 Feb18 Jan31 Jan19 (rarick lynn)SPANABEL SKYLER 122 20.00    
 
TAM-5   04/12/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RUSSIAN HAMMER Apr03 Aug06 Jul16 Jun25 May28 (smith robert)BATISTA A 121 8.00    
WOW WISH Mar24 Mar10 Feb14 Dec23 Dec03 (ness jamie)MARQUEZ CHARLIE 121 2.50 18% 4.60    
SCR  CIRCLE THE MOON Mar24 Feb14 Feb10 Dec30 Nov11 (sanchez amad)MENESES MARCOS 121 3.00    
MEROKEE Mar10 Feb10 Jan13 Jan15 Sep24 (dini mike)IORIO MELISSA 116 20.00 5% 19.00    
BLUE LIEUTENANT Mar24 Feb14 Jan19 Dec23 Sep16 (gonzal)ALMEDINA MARIANGELYS 111 30.00    
DRAMA'S PRAYER Nov12 Oct21 Aug26 Aug04 Jul09 (delgado jor)GONZALEZ MELVIS 111 2.00 50% 1.00    
JEST ABOVE Mar24 Mar10 Feb21 Feb10 Jan13 (nunez mauricio)MENDEZ KEVIN 121 20.00    
TIGERITO Mar10 Mar01 Oct06 Jun15 May19 (smith r)GONZALEZ ALEX 121 15.00    
PEACH NECTAR Mar14 Feb14 Dec23 Dec01 Oct22 (barboza v)MALDONADO GABRIEL 116 8.00 7% 13.50    
 
TAM-6   04/12/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($18K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:03
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WIN OR CELLAR Mar24 Feb23 Feb11 Dec31 Nov24 (mcgoey monica)GONZALEZ ALEX 123 12.00    
EILAT Mar24 Mar16 Feb24 Jan20 Dec26 (yanez )ALMEDINA MARIANGELYS 113 12.00    
TIZ ENOUGH Mar08 Jan25 Nov19 Oct27 May25 (allinson ver)MENESES MARCOS 123 8.00 8% 11.50    
HAPPY RIDE Mar23 Aug31 Aug04 Jun30 Jun22 (barron rory)FERRER C 125 4.50 53% 0.90    
HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH Mar16 Mar02 Feb16 Jan11 Dec10 (rigattieri j)ARROYO S 123 4.00 9% 9.70    
LADY LANCER Mar16 Feb24 Jan12 Dec16 Nov01 (sepulveda ca)BATISTA A 123 20.00    
WILD ARMY BRAT Feb16 Feb03 Dec06 Oct06 Aug04 (moysey chelse)SOSA LAUREANO 123 4.50 7% 13.00    
RITAAN Feb24 Feb09 Jan20 Jan06 Dec16 (wilson tony)IORIO MELISSA 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
VINGATIVA Mar24 Feb15 Jan10 Dec17 Nov24 (o'connell)MALDONADO GABRIEL 118 3.50    
10  MUDSHAFT Apr05 Mar16 Jan21 Jan07 Oct21 (williams matt)FUENTES MARIO 123 6.00    
 
TAM-7   04/12/2024 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($20K) 3 ALL PT- 3:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CITY LEADER Mar08 Dec02 Nov11 Oct22   (delacour arnaud)CENTENO E 120 3.50 28% 2.50    
MAGNUS EFFECT Mar17 Mar01 Jan28     (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 120 30.00    
CHASENTHEONE Mar17 Mar01 Feb16 Jan31 Dec29 (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 120 3.00 25% 3.00    
ICONIC ROCK Mar08 Feb18 Jan28 Dec30   (o'connell kat)IORIO MELISSA 115 4.00 13% 6.80    
CHARLIE'S COPY Mar22 Feb17 Jan31     (smith robe)FERRER C 120 15.00    
BARBARAZO         (cascallare)URDANETA J 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
SPECTACULAR LUCK Mar08 Jan24 Jan03 Dec22 Jul15 (dini mike)CAMACHO SAMY 120 8.00    
GERICAULT Mar08 Feb15 Jan05     (raven kerri)MARQUEZ CHARLIE 120 4.50 6% 17.10    
INSPIRING HONOR Mar17 Mar01 Jan28 Jan10 Nov24 (o'connell)MALDONADO GABRIEL 115 10.00    
10  TREASURE FLAY Mar29         (smith rob)RODRIGUEZ A 120 10.00    
SCR  VENEZUELAN FEELING Mar17 Feb28 Feb04 Aug06   (yanez reynald)GONZALEZ ALEX 120 30.00    
SCR  FORTINBRAS Mar17 Mar01 Jan24     (rodriguez dari)CASTANON L 120 8.00    
SCR  D BUCKAROO Mar23 Feb16 Jan28 Jan10 Dec13 (jones douglas)FUENTES MARIO 120 20.00    
SCR  AGENT MOR         (rice kevin)VILLA-GOMEZ H 120 20.00    
 
TAM-8   04/12/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($53K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:07
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DUNKIN' RUN Mar20         (stormfelt ju)ARROYO S 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of HONG KONG SILVER by BADGE OF SILVER)
CHROME GHOST Oct08 Sep24 Aug25 Jul28 Jun30 (bennett geral)IORIO MELISSA 120 4.50    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of PINK TRILLIUM by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SAINT BONES         (nunn douglas)CENTENO E 125 10.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
PATRIOT BLUECHIP Mar10 Jan26       (guciardo kathy)FELICIANO R 120 3.00 6% 17.20    
  (by NOBLE BIRD out of ASHLEY RIVER by DEPUTY WILD CAT)
NO PLEBEIAN Mar31 Feb29 Jan28 Dec31 Dec10 (lopez mario)SPANABEL SKYLER 120 12.00    
  (by LONG ON VALUE out of GABRIELLA'S DANCE by HAL'S IMAGE)
MR. DEMEANOR Mar20         (exposito adolf)SUAREZ JESUS 125 20.00    
  (by POSEIDON'S WARRIOR out of FAR FROM HERE by DA STOOPS)
JUANSEN Oct26 Oct09 Sep19 Sep04   (barron rory)ALLEN D 125 20.00    
  (by UNCLE LINO out of DIAMONDS FOR LEAH by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
BOY O' BOY Mar20 Aug25 Jun30 Jan12 Dec08 (deaton willi)MENESES MARCOS 125 5.00 55% 0.80    
  (by RAINBOW HEIR out of SUMFLORIDASUNFUN by GENERAL QUARTERS)
BOURBON EXPRESS Mar13         (moysey chelse)SOSA LAUREANO 125 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PALACE out of EXPRESS ANGEL by NAVARONE)
10  MOR SPRING SPIRIT Mar13 Feb24 Dec24     (mcgoey monic)BATISTA A 125 5.00 9% 10.70    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of SPRING RUSH by WILD RUSH)
 
TAM-9   04/12/2024 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($20.5K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LOVE RHAPSODY Mar22 Feb14 Jan24 Dec14 Nov24 (crichton roha)IORIO MELISSA 114 6.00    
NOBLE TESS Mar02 Jan19 Dec31 Dec15 Nov25 (smith g)CAMACHO SAMY 119 4.00 22% 3.60    
SCR  SWEET ALABAMA Mar22 Apr25       (lopez mario)SPANABEL SKYLER 119 4.50    
GO MIKA Jan27 Dec29 Dec08 May03 Apr15 (avila c)MENESES MARCOS 119 15.00    
CALLAS Mar10 Feb11 Jan19 Dec01 Sep29 (house ga)GALLARDO A 119 2.00 28% 2.60    
LAUGHINTOTHEBANK Mar22 Feb11 Dec29 Nov25 Sep23 (rarick lynn)ALLEN D 119 30.00    
MILLE DREAMS (FR) Mar02 Feb14 Dec23 Dec01 Nov03 (kintz m)MALDONADO GABRIEL 114 6.00 26% 2.80    
SUSIE'S SAVER Mar22 Mar02 Feb14 Jan27 Jan12 (paragallo je)BATISTA A 119 20.00    
NEWYEARSPRESENT Mar02 Feb11 Jan21 Dec15 Nov12 (o'connor ro)MARQUEZ CHARLIE 119 20.00    
10  FROSTY SECRET Mar02 Feb09 Aug24 Aug17 Jul21 (manning dennis )CENTENO E 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
11  D CITY GIRL Mar20 Feb25 Feb09 Jan21 Dec31 (dobber arnoud)IORIO MELISSA 116 15.00    
SCR  ALLONS Mar30 Jan26 Dec13 Aug12 Jul01 (creel rick)ALONSO LUIS 119 12.00    
SCR  BEASTIE GIRL Mar30 Jan27 Jan19 Nov22 Sep09 (werneth rober)FUENTES MARIO 119 15.00    
SCR  WALK SOFTLY Feb28 Feb03 Sep02 Mar01 Feb02 (padilla tim)SANTOS ADEMAR 119 15.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.