Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Century Downs Tb
Saturday - October 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CTD-2   WIN (5/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/2)-(5/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (5/2)-(4/1)-(6/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CTD-3   WIN (4/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/1)-(4/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/1)-(6/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
CTD-4   WIN (6/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/4)-(6/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/4)-(6/3/4)-(6/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
CTD-5   WIN (6/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/3)-(6/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/3)-(6/2/3)-(6/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (6/2/3)-(6/1/2)-(6/2/7) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CTD-6   WIN (6/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/2)-(6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/2)-(6/2/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
CTD-7   WIN (6/2/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/7)-(6/2/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/7)-(6/2/7)-(6/2/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
CTD-8   WIN (1/4/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/2/8)-(1/4/2/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/2/8)-(1/4/2/8)-(1/4/2/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
CTD-9   WIN (6/5/8/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/5/8/2)-(6/5/8/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/5/8/2)-(6/5/8/2)-(6/5/8/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/5/8/2)-(3/8/6/1)-(8/2/4/10/9) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CTD-10   WIN (3/8/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/8/6/1)-(3/8/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/8/6/1)-(3/8/6/1)-(3/8/6/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/8/6/1)-(8/2/4/10/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CTD-11   WIN (8/2/4/10/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/2/4/10/9)-(8/2/4/10/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/2/4/10/9)-(8/2/4/10/9)-(8/2/4/10/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CTD-2   10/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($12.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OUT FRONT Aug18 Jul23 Jul08 May12 Jun17 (g)GRIFFITH DELANE 120 6.00    
2  MOHAYMEN DAY Oct08 Sep30 Sep17 Aug11 Jul21 (robertso)GUERRERO FRANCISCO 125 3.00 15% 5.60    
3  CARRIE'S SUCCESS Sep09 Aug18 Jul29 Jul08 Aug06 (griev)GASKIN ZAVIER 120 3.50    
4  PEARL OF KNOWLEDGE Oct08 Jul16 Jun16 May26 Nov05 (kingston karlin)NELSON DANE 125 4.00    
5  WILD ARCH Oct08 Sep23 Sep10 Mar28 Mar14 (brown r)PRESCOD N'RICO 125 1.40 58% 0.70    
 
CTD-3   10/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($8.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ESCROW STYLE Oct14 Sep24 Sep16 Aug19 Aug12 (smith cra)WHITEHALL ANTONIO 125 2.50 16% 5.20    
2  JUMEIRAH COAST Sep17 Sep01 Jul22 Jun16 Jun03 (smith r)CUMBERBATCH R 125 8.00    
SCR  STORMY SUMMIT Oct07 Sep23 Aug25 Aug06 Sep24 (brown r)SIMPSON W 123 15.00    
4  HARD TO COME HOME Oct01 Sep17 Sep01 Aug25 Aug12 (brown r)PRESCOD N'RICO 125 2.00 48% 1.10    
5  CARSON'S LEGACY Oct14 Oct01 Sep24 Sep17 Sep01 (frey carson)NELSON DANE 125 3.00    
6  NORTH FORK Oct01 Sep20 Sep06 Aug28 Aug14 (kingston kar)NATERA KEIHTON 125 4.50    
 
CTD-4   10/21/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOONSHINE NOW Oct08 Sep24 May27 Apr19 Mar24 (smith r)LUNAN RICHARD 125 10.00    
2  WHITEROSE SPIRIT Oct08 Sep30 Sep19 Sep11 Aug21 (brown shelley)BRYAN D 122 20.00    
3  EXPLODE Oct14 Oct01 Aug26 Jun24 Jun10 (a)GRIFFITH DELANE 120 3.50 28% 2.50    
4  TUCKER TIME Oct14 Sep16 Aug26 Aug12 Jul22 (coney )ASENCIO MARIANO 125 3.00 12% 7.00    
5  SASSY CINDERELLA Oct08 Sep24 Sep16 Sep01 Aug18 (ryc)GONZALEZ ALONZO 122 15.00    
6  SMASH FACTOR Oct08 Sep24 Sep17 Jul23 Apr08 (smith cra)WHITEHALL ANTONIO 125 2.00 37% 1.70    
7  REDNECK REMARK Oct08 Sep17 Aug25 Aug12 Jul23 (mcdonald rob)PRESCOD N'RICO 125 4.00    
 
CTD-5   10/21/2023 4950ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($15.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEAUGATTI Oct08 Oct01 Sep17 Jul22 Jul08 (tingle ken)SIMPSON W 125 12.00    
2  DANCING WILLIE Sep30 Sep16 Jul23 Jun24 Jun09 (robertson )BALGOBIN KEISHAN 125 2.00 23% 3.40    
3  SPORTSCARR Oct08 Oct01 Sep17 Sep01 Jul30 (heggie ro)ZENTENO JR 125 5.00 22% 3.60    
4  THE BEAT Sep30 Sep24 Sep09 Aug19 Aug06 (hawkes darcy)BRYAN D 125 3.00    
5  RUNNINFORCOVER Sep24 Sep01 Aug25 Jul22 Jul09 (rycrof)ASENCIO MARIANO 125 6.00    
6  SILVERFOOT Oct08 Sep30 Sep16 Aug25 Aug06 (nicholson da)NATERA KEIHTON 125 2.50 26% 2.90    
 
CTD-6   10/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($17.5K) Purse ($19.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOOL TIME Oct07 Sep10 Aug11 Jul22 Jun23 (brown r)NELSON DANE 125 1.80 24% 3.10    
2  LINCHPIN STORM Aug11 Jul23 Jun30 Jun09 May26 (reid colton)SIMPSON W 125 15.00 7% 13.60    
3  WALKTHELINE Oct07 Sep23 Aug25 Aug04 Jul23 (mcdonald rob)PRESCOD N'RICO 125 2.50    
4  MOUNT ASGARD Oct07 Oct02 Sep18 Aug22 Aug01 (kingston c)BRYAN D 123 10.00    
5  FLASHFORDANI Sep16 Aug25 Aug11 Jul23 Jun02 (kingston )ZENTENO JR 123 8.00    
6  SLEW'S BAK Oct08 Sep24 Aug25 Aug04 Jul23 (kingston )WHITEHALL ANTONIO 125 2.00 41% 1.40    
 
CTD-7   10/21/2023 5940ft DIRT RC11 FAST Don Getty Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROCKTILLYOUDROP Oct08 Sep16 Sep09 Aug25 Jul22 (cone rodn)ZENTENO JR 120 10.00    
  (by SMILING TIGER out of RED HOT ROCKET by MR. EXPO)
2  DECOY Oct08 Sep16 Aug25 Aug06 Jul22 (kettle)ASENCIO MARIANO 123 3.00 25% 2.90    
  (by AIKENITE out of WINE GLOW by TIZNOW)
3  WHERE'S THE GOLD Oct07 Sep24 Aug26 Jul30 Jul16 (gilkyson ash)NATERA KEIHTON 113 20.00    
  (by WHERE'S THE RING out of RIVERMAID DANCING by RIVERMAN)
4  RACE HOME Sep19 Aug25 Jul22 Jul01 Apr24 (anderson)GUERRERO FRANCISCO 124 2.50    
  (by RACE DAY out of HEAD FOR HOME by WHISKEY WISDOM)
5  DRINKING AGAIN Oct08 Sep16 Aug25 Aug04 Jul22 (frey carson)CUMBERBATCH R 116 15.00    
  (by STAY THIRSTY out of STORM SWEPT by STORMY ATLANTIC)
6  GLAVA Aug26 Aug06 Jul22 Jun24 May26 (anderson gonzal)NELSON DANE 125 2.00 39% 1.60    
  (by HE'S HAD ENOUGH out of ZENZELDA by REY DE CAFE)
7  IMPACTO Sep24 Aug25 Jul23 Jun30 Jun09 (smith craig )PRESCOD N'RICO 122 4.50 14% 5.90    
  (by FIRST DUDE out of RARA by TIZ WONDERFUL)
 
CTD-8   10/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($8K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EXAMINER Oct07 Oct01 Sep17 Sep01 Aug18 (rycrof)ASENCIO MARIANO 125 2.00 25% 3.00    
2  YOU SPLIT TENS Oct09 Sep02 Aug25 Aug06 Jul29 (brown allen)SIMPSON W 125 15.00 9% 9.60    
3  BIG AL'S VISION Oct07 Sep30 Sep17 Sep01 Aug04 (frey carso)RIZO ALEXIS 125 6.00    
4  TACOFLAVOREDKISSES Sep30 Sep17 Aug13 Jul08 Jun24 (brown jim)WHITEHALL ANTONIO 125 8.00 24% 3.10    
5  SMILIN EVIE Oct07 Sep23 Sep09 Aug25 Aug13 (cone rodney)PRESCOD N'RICO 122 8.00    
6  LONESOME CAT Oct14 Sep24 Sep09 Aug26 Aug06 (ward anderso)NATERA KEIHTON 125 20.00    
7  BACKSTREET BOBBY Oct14 Oct07 Sep23 Sep16 Aug25 (biggs )STEADMAN LEON 125 3.00    
8  DON'TTEASETHETIGER Oct09 Sep24 Sep17 Sep04 Aug19 (oberholtzer kev)NELSON DANE 125 10.00 8% 11.20    
 
CTD-9   10/21/2023 5940ft DIRT RC11 FAST Lynn Chouinard Founders Distaff Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PLUM BLUE Sep30 Sep16 Aug26 Aug04 Jul21 (hedge )ASENCIO MARIANO 121 6.00    
  (by IMPERIALISM out of POLITICAL AFFAIR by POLITICAL FORCE)
2  MINE ME Sep30 Aug26 Aug04 Jul21 Jun23 (hedge rick)NATERA KEIHTON 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MINESHAFT out of FORGOTTEN MISS by QUEBEC DANCER)
3  TONE IT UP Sep30 Aug26 Aug04 Jul21 Jun23 (nicholson)ZENTENO JR 119 12.00    
  (by TONALIST out of ACHIEVER'S LEGACY by CITY ZIP)
4  ORANGE THEORY Sep30 Sep18 Aug26 Aug04 Jul21 (brown shelley)CUMBERBATCH R 120 20.00    
  (by FIRST DUDE out of CHIPPI by TRIPPI)
5  BURROW DOWN Sep18 Aug28 Aug07 Jul18 Jun27 (robertson)WHITEHALL ANTONIO 125 2.50 21% 3.90    
  (by CONNECT out of TRUE ENDEAVOR by AFTER MARKET)
6  MISSCZECH Sep30 Sep16 Aug26 Aug04 Jun16 (anderson g)BALGOBIN KEISHAN 122 3.00 37% 1.70    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of ZAZZ by TAPIT)
7  AFTER A FEW Sep09 Aug26 Aug11 Jul09 Jun09 (smith craig )PRESCOD N'RICO 117 8.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of CHIA by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
8  DANCE SHOES Sep30 Sep16 Sep03 Jul21 Jun23 (brown r)NELSON DANE 123 3.50 19% 4.40    
  (by MANK out of DANCIN FOR DELLANA by WHYWHYWHY)
 
CTD-10   10/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6K) Purse ($10.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SNAP COUNT Sep23 Aug25 Jul28 Jul16 Jun24 (pet)GONZALEZ ALONZO 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  JHAWK FLYER Oct08 Sep24 Sep10 Aug18 Jun25 (d)GRIFFITH DELANE 120 20.00    
3  BOSS MAN CAN Aug25 Jul23 Jun16 May27 May06 (grieves ron)PRESCOD N'RICO 123 3.00 58% 0.70    
4  LIL ZAPPER Oct08 Sep23 Sep01 Aug19 Jul29 (humbke chery)NATERA KEIHTON 122 2.50    
5  SPOT ON DUDE Oct14 Sep23 Sep01 Aug06 Jul23 (brown r)SIMPSON W 123 6.00    
6  NIGHT FLYER Sep17 Aug19 Aug02 Jul07 Jun16 (smith cra)WHITEHALL ANTONIO 119 10.00 6% 17.00    
7  REBATE Oct15 Sep24 Sep10 Aug26 Jul30 (smith)GASKIN ZAVIER 114 15.00    
8  AGENT C Oct08 Sep23 Sep09 Aug26 Aug13 (o'hagan colleen)NELSON DANE 122 3.50 13% 6.70    
 
CTD-11   10/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SECRET HAVEN Oct07 Sep23 Sep17 Sep01 Aug11 (brown r)SIMPSON W 125 10.00    
2  VIVIEN'S CHARM Oct08 Sep17 Sep01 Aug18 Jul28 (smith rob)NELSON DANE 125 3.00 20% 4.00    
3  WHEELSUPINTHIRTY Oct08 Sep30 Sep24 Sep10 Aug19 (biggs seymour)POON ANDREW 125 20.00    
4  MARGOT'S GIRL Oct08 Sep13 Aug30 Aug09 Jul17 (kingston )WHITEHALL ANTONIO 125 6.00 16% 5.20    
5  DAZZLING CHIC Oct08 Sep10 Aug13 Jul29 Jul08 (petro)GASKIN ZAVIER 120 20.00    
SCR  MISTY MATT Sep24 Sep10 Sep01 Aug20 Aug06 (coney jaso)BALGOBIN KEISHAN 125 15.00    
7  SUGAR MOON Oct08 Sep30 Sep16 Sep03 Aug19 (brown shelle)NATERA KEIHTON 125 8.00    
8  NO BAKK TALK Oct08 Sep30 Sep16 Oct28 Oct14 (smith k)PRESCOD N'RICO 125 2.50 22% 3.60    
9  EDGE OF OKOTOKS Oct08 Sep23 Sep10 Aug13 Jul23 (mcdonald robe)CUMBERBATCH R 125 8.00 5% 19.00    
10  PONY GIRL Jul28 Jul07 Jun17 Mar31 Feb22 (s)GRIFFITH DELANE 120 15.00 12% 7.20    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.