Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Charles Town
Thursday - October 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CT-1   WIN (6/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/4)-(6/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/4)-(6/1/4)-(6/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/4)-(6/4/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/1/4)-(6/4/1)-(4/8/1/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-2   WIN (6/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/1)-(6/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/1)-(6/4/1)-(6/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/1)-(4/8/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/4/1)-(4/8/1/2)-(4/3/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-3   WIN (4/8/1/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/8/1/2)-(4/8/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/8/1/2)-(4/8/1/2)-(4/8/1/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/8/1/2)-(4/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/8/1/2)-(4/3/2)-(3/4/9) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-4   WIN (4/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/2)-(4/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/2)-(4/3/2)-(4/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/2)-(3/4/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/3/2)-(3/4/9)-(3/2/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CT-5   WIN (3/4/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/9)-(3/4/9/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/4/9)-(3/4/9/7)-(3/4/9/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/4/9)-(3/2/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/4/9)-(3/2/1)-(8/4/6/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-6   WIN (3/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/1)-(3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/1)-(8/4/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/2/1)-(8/4/6/3)-(2/9/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-7   WIN (8/4/6/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/4/6/3)-(8/4/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/6/3)-(8/4/6/3)-(8/4/6/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/4/6/3)-(2/9/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CT-8   WIN (2/9/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/9/3)-(2/9/4/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/9/3)-(2/9/4/3)-(2/9/4/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CT-1   10/19/2023 2970ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($16.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JEFFERSON SECURITY Aug19 May20 Apr22 Apr06 Mar02 (grams timothy )REYNOLDS C 122 3.50 19% 4.40    
2  ABENDEGO Sep07 Aug04 Jul15 Jun03 Sep09 (greaves vernon)REAP E 122 4.50    
3  FOREVER TAKES TIME Jul08 Jun02 Apr14 Feb22 Feb02 (barber do)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 1.60    
4  HE'S ON THE LINE May20 May14 Mar16     (racanelli mark)RIOS-CONDE A 120 20.00 12% 7.50    
5  CHARITABLE WINDSOR Aug17 Aug05 Jul21 May11 Apr22 (hess g)RODRIGUEZ V 120 2.50    
6  ELEANORS JACK Sep08 Aug17 Jun23 Apr14   (jackson angel)RIVERA JAVIER 120 6.00 33% 2.10    
 
CT-2   10/19/2023 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($26.5K) 2 F PT- 7:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAYTOWN RINGER         (mcentee pa)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 120 6.00 6% 16.30    
  (by DIALED IN out of PURELY LUCKY by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
2  MIDCENTURY MODERN Sep28 Sep01       (pickett crysta)MONTANO JOSE 120 15.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of CLEOPATTY by CAIRO PRINCE)
3  FUZZY WUZZY Aug26         (mcclure diana )ARAUJO DENIS 120 20.00    
  (by PALACE out of DUN IN ONE by DUNKIRK)
4  RAGAZZA MIA         (runco jef)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 120 5.00 12% 7.10    
  (by MOSLER out of THEGALTHATWASABOY by TIZNOW)
5  P B FOXY Sep28 Sep14       (venham d)BATISTA C 120 15.00    
  (by WAR CORRESPONDENT out of POSEIDON'S BLUFF by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
6  HAPPY BAYTOWN Oct04 Apr12       (mcentee pau)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 0.60 60% 0.70    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of TIZASONG by TIZNOW)
7  KAPADOKYA Oct06 Sep07       (moysey chelsey)HIRALDO JOHN 120 4.50    
  (by GET STORMY out of THREE HALOS by LIAISON)
 
CT-3   10/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEIZE THE BREEZE Oct06 Sep16 Sep08 Aug25 Aug10 (sandoval michae)PELTROCHE F 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  STILL THE ONE Sep06 Aug26 Dec02 Oct26 Oct18 (jones micha)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  SURF CITY GOLD Oct06 Sep16 Sep07 Sep01 Aug11 (mckenzie danie)ARAUJO DENIS 122 10.00    
4  MISS YOU AJAX Sep28 Sep08 Aug24 Aug11 Jul27 (knoblauch-perez)BOCACHICA O 120 5.00 51% 1.00    
5  SCHMEAR Sep28 Aug25 Aug10 Jul13 Jun16 (viands r)ACOSTA D 122 1.80    
6  COUNTRY CHARLIE Sep28 Aug17 Jul27 Jul13 Jun21 (deiter lynn)LARROSA G 120 15.00    
SCR  GLORIOUS MAHOMES Sep02 Aug11 Jul23 Jul02 Jun16 (dilodovico damon)CRUZ ANGEL 120 3.50    
8  LOVE MACHINE Apr14 Mar24 Feb25 Feb05 Jan16 (pickett crysta)MONTANO JOSE 122 4.00 22% 3.50    
9  PERSONAL FINANCE Oct06 Sep08 Aug18 Jul28 Jul15 (adorno je)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 120 20.00    
 
CT-4   10/19/2023 2970ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($15.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG BALLOONS Sep23 Aug27 Aug11 Jul08 Jun02 (jones e)BOCACHICA O 120 4.50    
2  SKY OF GOLD Oct06 Oct07 Sep15 Aug27 May26 (atkins will)MCKENZIE CONNIE 115 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  DOC ELM Sep07 Aug03 Jul14 May20 Apr21 (joy j)MENDEZ MARSHALL 124 2.00 23% 3.30    
4  FROGGY THE GREMLIN Sep28 Sep07 Jul29 Jun15 Feb18 (mangual)NUNEZ MAURICIO 124 2.50 54% 0.90    
5  CAJUN FUN Sep28 Aug26 Jun27 Apr21 Apr01 (collins tim)PELTROCHE F 120 3.50    
6  HUEY DUEY Sep28 Sep03 Jul29 May29 May22 (comi ralph)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 120 5.00    
 
CT-5   10/19/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($7.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DANCE LIGHTLY Oct07 Sep21 Mar26 Mar17 Mar05 (stahlin joh)MCKENZIE CONNIE 115 30.00    
2  WOODSONG'S CASTLE Oct07 Sep29 Sep09 Aug26 Aug19 (shanley t)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 124 15.00    
3  MARKETABILITY Oct07 Sep29 Sep09 Aug12 Mar17 (hurley jack)TROTMAN KEIMAR 122 1.60 42% 1.40    
4  MISS BETTE LUTE Aug19 Jul26 Jun14 May23 Apr25 (jackson l)CULLUM W 122 1.80 36% 1.80    
5  SO RED THE ROSE Oct07 Sep29 Sep09 Aug12 Jul22 (obed-letts ketur)MAWING A 122 20.00    
6  ADABEL Oct07 Aug10 Jul21 May04 Feb09 (garrido raul)LARROSA G 122 20.00    
7  WAGER WORTHY Sep16 Aug26 Jun16 May26 Apr21 (carlisle jo)MENDEZ MARSHALL 124 3.50 ★    
8  CONNOISSEUR Jun07 May30 Nov22 Oct10 Aug30 (shanley timoth)CHILO MAXIMO 122 15.00    
9  LIGHTFOOT MISS Sep29 Jul01 May20 Apr29 Mar17 (racanelli mark)RIOS-CONDE A 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
CT-6   10/19/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($13.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ONEPRETTYTHING Oct04 Sep02 Aug19 Jul22 Jul01 (smith osborne)ADAMS L 115 30.00 5% 19.00    
2  CASTLE OF CAYLEE Oct07 Sep09 Aug19 Aug03 Jul01 (rideout anthony)RODRIGUEZ V 122 2.00 16% 5.40    
3  URKILLINGMEBETH Oct07 Aug12 May21 Apr30 Apr06 (walters l)PELTROCHE F 120 3.00 57% 0.70    
4  MISS WILD Oct07 Sep29 Aug27 Aug12 Jul22 (obed-letts ke)RIVERA JAVIER 120 6.00    
5  CHINA CAT Oct05 Sep14 Aug19 May27 May06 (jones e)BOCACHICA O 122 4.00    
6  CICI UNIFIED Oct06 Sep02 Aug12 Jul22 Jul13 (jones micha)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 2.50    
7  UPSY DAISY DO Sep29 Sep09 Aug12 Jun15 May20 (aylor william)LOPEZ ANTONIO 120 30.00    
 
CT-7   10/19/2023 2970ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($27.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ESSENTIAL MAGIC Jun24 Jun10 May19     (brown ronney )ROJAS MARTINA 113 2.50    
2  XTENDED STREAK Sep02 Aug12 Aug04 Jul14 Jun23 (lucas anthony)BOCACHICA O 120 6.00    
3  GHOST OF ALCINA Sep23 Sep02 Aug04 Jul01 Jun10 (greaves ver)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  SHEWEARSSTILETTOS Aug18 Aug04 Jul14 Jun23 Jun02 (brown w)CRUZ ANGEL 118 3.00 17% 4.80    
5  OUR GREAT NOTION Sep16 Aug25 Jul28 Jul15 Jun24 (grams timothy )CHILO MAXIMO 118 8.00    
6  LIL BOUGIE Aug29 Jul27 Jul01 Jun01   (figgins l)PELTROCHE F 118 8.00 17% 5.00    
7  LAURA'S GRAND Sep03 Aug25 Aug12 Jul24 Jun02 (pyke joseph)RODRIGUEZ V 122 20.00    
8  PHANTOM QUEEN Aug25 Jul22 Jul01 May19 Apr28 (greaves v)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 120 3.50 40% 1.50    
 
CT-8   10/19/2023 2970ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($13K) 3UP ALL PT-10:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  GETTIN SPICY Sep30 Sep07 Aug17 Jul28 Jul01 (boykins kevin)ACOSTA D 121 15.00    
2  J. WICK Sep28 Jul13 Jun23 May26 Apr13 (brown ronney )ROJAS MARTINA 116 1.80 55% 0.80    
3  MYLASHURRAH May20         (collyer d)RODRIGUEZ V 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  ROAD PUNCH Sep28 May13 Mar31     (armstrong b)MCKENZIE CONNIE 114 6.00 ★    
5  RAISE A RUCKUS Sep30 Sep07 Aug17 Aug03 Jul22 (grams timothy )REYNOLDS C 124 4.50    
6  NEEDNOEXPLANATION Jul13 May26 Apr29 Apr06 Mar16 (bowman d)ADAMS L 117 15.00    
7  JUBA'S YANKEE ONE Sep28 Sep07 Aug17 Jun23 May06 (racanelli)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 20.00    
8  DOG TOWN ALLEN Sep28 Sep08 Sep01 Aug17 Jul29 (harrison gle)MARRERO CARLOS 121 6.00    
9  LORD CLANCY Sep30 Sep22 Sep08     (figgins l)PELTROCHE F 121 3.00 21% 3.70    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.