Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Fort Erie
Tuesday - July 04, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
FE-1   WIN (4/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/5)-(4/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2/5)-(4/2/5)-(4/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/2/5)-(3/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-2   WIN (3/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/5)-(3/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/5)-(3/1/5)-(3/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/5)-(4/6/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-3   WIN (4/6/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/7)-(4/6/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/7)-(4/6/7)-(4/6/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/7)-(4/5/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-4   WIN (4/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/2)-(4/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/2)-(4/5/2)-(4/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/5/2)-(3/1/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-5   WIN (3/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/2)-(3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/2)-(8/4/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-6   WIN (8/4/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/4/9)-(8/4/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/4/9)-(8/4/9)-(8/4/9) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
FE-1   07/04/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($19.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  J M R GEMMA Jun26 Jun12 Nov10 Oct24 Oct10 (si)BOULANGER CHANCE 120 4.00    
2  PENNIESFROMABOVE May30 Oct24 Oct10 Sep27 Sep13 (steer tom)MAILHOT P 120 2.00 28% 2.60    
3  J M R BOLD VISION May25 May13 Dec01 Nov03 Oct10 (chirco)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 113 5.00    
4  LETS RUN TWO Jun27 Jun06 May12 Apr29 Nov24 (adamo anth)SLEVINSKY RACHEL 113 1.60 42% 1.40    
5  LIME Jun12 Oct17 Sep27 Sep06 Aug29 (robillard juli)BYNOE DESEAN 113 6.00 8% 11.60    
 
FE-2   07/04/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($4K) Purse ($15K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG BANG BLUE Jun22 May26 Jun12     (ceccato sh)SLEVINSKY RACHEL 113 1.80 21% 3.80    
2  RUMOURS FLY Jun12 May07 Dec09 Nov11   (buttig)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 118 5.00    
3  BEA MAJESTIC G G Jun13 May23 Oct11     (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 118 3.50 53% 0.90    
4  GYPSY MAGIC Jun15 May27 Nov19 Oct22   (chubb beverley)CRAWFORD J 120 2.50    
5  MIZZ GEMMA Jun12 Jun06 Oct24 Oct04 Sep20 (albu ken)JOHNSON KIRK 120 4.00 5% 19.00    
 
FE-3   07/04/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.75K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WESTLODGE INTRIGUE Jun13 May23 May09 May01 Mar29 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 120 10.00    
SCR  NEW YORK MINT Jun27 May23 Oct10 Aug29 Aug14 (bennett )BUCHANAN Z 120 15.00    
SCR  SAVVY'S SISTER Jun13 Jun06 May23 Nov04 Oct01 (loescher pa)WENC C 120 8.00    
4  SWEET FINALE Jun12 Oct17 Oct04 Sep06 Aug22 (buttig)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 3.00 61% 0.60    
5  MS. P'S BELLA Jun27 Jun13 May23 Apr30 Nov03 (robillard juli)JOHNSON KIRK 120 4.00    
6  SNELL FLICKA Jun13 May23 Jul17 Jul05 May31 (bl)BOULANGER CHANCE 122 6.00 11% 7.90    
7  REMEMBEROLDTYMES Jun12 May30 Oct10 Sep27 Sep20 (robill)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 8.00 5% 17.50    
SCR  BABY MO Jun16 May25 Nov03 Oct06 Sep16 (mattine mich)NICHOLLS KEVEH 122 2.50    
 
FE-4   07/04/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FOREST CHOICE Jun27 Jun10 May12 Apr22 Nov10 (newlan)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 2.50    
2  PAPA'S SILVER Jun26 Jun06 May23 Oct24 Oct04 (humber jo)SEECHARAN A 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  VERMONT HOLIDAY May30 May14 Apr30 Jan02 Dec05 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 120 6.00    
4  SHELLY THE ROCKET Jun10 May12 Apr29 Oct06 Sep16 (charalambous j)BYNOE DESEAN 115 1.60 39% 1.50    
5  NATASHA'S BIZNIZ Jun16 May25 May12 Apr22 Oct03 (siddo barringt)JOHNSON KIRK 120 3.50 31% 2.20    
6  PICTUREDAY JESSICA Jun18 May27 Apr29 Nov03 Oct13 (powell dale )SANCHEZ ALEXIS 110 10.00    
 
FE-5   07/04/2023 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($21.3K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KHOZZY VALINTINE Jun10 May19 Jan11 Nov19 Oct07 (robillard juli)JOHNSON KIRK 120 1.80 20% 4.00    
2  WEST PAW Jun18 Jun10 Jun01 May13 Dec08 (robillard ju)CHEYNE A 120 8.00 8% 11.30    
3  GIMBALA Jun18 Jun06 Oct24 Oct06 Sep13 (si)BOULANGER CHANCE 120 2.50 41% 1.40    
SCR  PACENZA Jun12 May30 May02 Dec13 Nov15 (humber jos)KING MARIE 120 6.00    
5  HASN'T HIT ME YET Jun18 May23 May14 Apr29 Oct29 (mayn)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 120 10.00    
6  JARA Jun06 Apr29 Apr07 Sep05 Jul17 (davis m)MAILHOT P 120 3.00    
 
FE-6   07/04/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($21.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TANGERINE TWIST May30 Jul19 Jun27     (robillard julie)MAILHOT P 120 6.00    
  (by RELOAD out of SNAPALICIOUS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
2  MIMI'S HOLIDAY May23 Dec08 Nov18 Sep29 Aug25 (robill)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 10.00    
  (by AMI'S HOLIDAY out of HURRICANE MIMI by SLIGO BAY)
SCR  MENAGERIE Jun26 Jun13 May23 Nov19 Oct08 (albu ken)JOHNSON KIRK 120 8.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of HOLY FLAME by PULPIT)
4  SUPER COOL STORM May03 Mar09 Jan12 Oct28   (neubauer mich)PINTO MELANIE 120 3.00 26% 2.90    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of COOL STORM by STORM CAT)
SCR  LADY OF THE FORT Jun12 Jul26 Jul04     (cath)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 120 12.00    
  (by FORT LARNED out of LADY BLESSINGS by SHANGHAI BOBBY)
SCR  BRIENNE OF TARTH Jun13 May30 Mar01 Feb08 Jan01 (robillard julie)CRAWFORD J 120 4.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of BLUE VENUS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
7  ASHWICKEN Jun12 May07 Mar29 Mar08 Feb20 (chudobiak gary)HOYTE JASON 120 5.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of WARM FRONT by WAR FRONT)
8  JIMMY IS A BREEZE Jun26 Dec09 Sep29 Sep09 Aug21 (si)BOULANGER CHANCE 120 3.50 28% 2.60    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of DYNA'S A BREEZE by DYNAFORMER)
9  TEQUILAS MELODY         (rabstein claudia )MAILHOT P 120 8.00 22% 3.50    
  (by SHACKLEFORD out of LADY TEQUILAS by U S RANGER)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.