Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Saratoga
Sunday - August 28, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
SAR-1   08/28/2022 5610ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($105K) 2 F PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUSTIFIABLE BELLE         (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
2  XIGERA Aug07         (bauer phi)LEPAROUX R 119 3.00 23% 3.30    
3  CANDLE Jul31         (mcgaughey cla)VELAZQUEZ R 119 6.00    
4  WAND         (pletcher tod)CASTELLANO J 119 10.00    
5  MO SHIRO Aug07         (mcpeek kenneth )DAVIS DYLAN 119 15.00    
6  CLEVER JOKE         (brown c)ORTIZ L 119 12.00    
7  AKAYLA (IRE)         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 119 4.00    
8  LA VITA SOFIA         (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 119 15.00    
9  MADEMOISELLEJACKIE         (clement christ)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 5.00    
10  FOREVER DIXIE Aug14 Jul04       (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 6% 15.50    
SCR  FREYDIS THE RED (FR) Jul31         (mcpeek kenn)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 8.00 11% 8.30    
SCR  WELCOMETOMYWORLD         (atras rob)RIDER TBA 119 8.00    
SCR  MISINTENTION Jul31         (mott i)RIDER TBA 119 3.00 18% 4.60    
SCR  MY BETSY Jul31         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 2.00 21% 3.80    
 
SAR-2   08/28/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ENDOWED Jul30 Jul02 Jun05     (clement chris)ORTIZ JR 125 2.00 36% 1.80    
2  NEVER CHANGE Jul16 May20 Mar26     (pletcher todd )ORTIZ L 120 8.00 ★    
3  CRYO Jul30 Jul16 Jul01 May30 Apr02 (noda orlando)CASTELLANO J 123 3.00 38% 1.60    
4  BOLD VICTORY Jul30 Jul02 Jun16 Jun04 May19 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 125 3.50 ★    
5  HIGHER QUALITY Jul16 Jun11 Apr16     (englehart chris)CANCEL ERIC 125 4.00 ★    
6  ELOQUIST Aug12 Jul25 Feb05 Jan09   (reid e)LEZCANO JOSE 120 5.00    
 
SAR-3   08/28/2022 3630ft TURF RC0 FIRM Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISPELLED MOOON Aug04 Jun25 May15 Apr15   (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.00 ★    
1A  STUCK ON KITTEN Aug04 Jul08       (d'angelo j)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 68% 0.50    
2  TWEAQUED Jul31 Jul14 Apr21 Apr01 Jan28 (handal raymon)FRANCO MANUEL 118 3.50 ★    
3  ABUSE OF POWER Jul14 Jun04 May28 Feb25 Jan23 (de h)SANTANA JR 124 1.60 6% 15.70    
4  THISMIGHTBETHEONE Jul08 May14 Apr15 Mar11   (abreu r)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 6.00    
5  SMOKIN' HOT KITTY Aug12 Jun26 May30 Apr14   (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 12.00    
6  JASMINESQUE Aug03 Jul01 Jun03 May12 Apr16 (sciacca gary)ORTIZ L 124 12.00 ★    
7  BUSTIN BULLET Jul29 Jul08 Jun17 May21   (miceli michae)ORTIZ JR 120 8.00    
SCR  NEW YORK BANKER Aug05 Jul16 Jun18 May27 May06 (noda orlando)RIDER TBA 124 2.00 5% 19.00    
 
SAR-4   08/28/2022 5940ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($105K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ABUNDANT HONOR Jan05         (kimmel c)DAVIS DYLAN 124 6.00 ★    
2  GASOLINE Jul08 Jun10 May07 Mar19   (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 27% 2.70    
3  CLOUD FOREST Aug10 Jul08 May15     (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 118 8.00    
4  AFJAN Jul14 Jul01 Jun08 Apr22 Feb12 (maker mi)SANTANA JR 118 15.00 17% 4.80    
5  SIDEKICK Jul29 Jul08 Jun02     (mcgaughey cla)VELAZQUEZ R 118 1.40 34% 1.90    
6  BOLD LOOKER Jul29 Jul03       (lynch bria)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 ★    
7  ORDER OF MAGNITUDE Jan02         (abreu r)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 12.00    
 
SAR-5   08/28/2022 5280ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($115K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FUNNY JOKE Jul04 Jun05 Mar13     (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 118 12.00    
SCR  PERCEIVED Aug18 Jul21 Jun16 May15 Apr10 (rodriguez r)RIDER TBA 125 12.00 ★    
2  DEVIL'S OUTLAW Jul02 Jun02 May01     (brown c)ORTIZ JR 123 3.50 7% 13.50    
3  HIDDEN ENEMY (IRE) Jul30 Jul02       (asmussen steve)LEZCANO JOSE 125 12.00    
4  MICROPHONE (IRE) Jun16 Apr15 Feb27 Jan07   (brown c)ORTIZ L 125 2.00 40% 1.50    
5  EXULT Jul30         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 12.00 ★    
6  IRWIN (IRE) Jul30 Jun03 May06     (antonacc)SANTANA JR 125 6.00    
7  COLOSSEO Jul30         (catalano m)SAEZ LUIS 125 12.00    
8  CALL ME HARRY Jul24 Jul04 Jun03     (sharp joe)CASTELLANO J 123 15.00    
9  SHAWDYSHAWDYSHAWDY Jul30 Jul02 May06 Apr08   (abreu r)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 4.00    
SCR  TIWANAKU Jul22 Jun30 Jun09 Apr22 Mar18 (amoss m)RIDER TBA 123 1.40 28% 2.60    
 
SAR-6   08/28/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($105K) 2 F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THE GREAT MAYBE         (devaux cheri)CASTELLANO J 119 8.00    
2  NURSEKRINGLEDANCES         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 5.00    
3  SOLEDAD         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 6.00    
SCR  HIGH CLASS Jul31         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00    
5  LOVIN' ON THE RUN         (stall m)DAVIS DYLAN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  BELLA MICHELLE         (martin f)CANCEL ERIC 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  QUIESCENT         (ribaudo robert)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  I'M A COUNTRY GIRL         (brown c)ORTIZ L 119 6.00    
9  LOVE TO SHOP         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 119 3.50 45% 1.20    
10  MARIA FROM MIAMI Aug07 Jul02       (rodriguez r)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00    
11  ALPHA BELLA         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 119 4.50 9% 9.70    
 
SAR-7   08/28/2022 3630ft TURF RC4 FIRM Claiming ($35K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  O'GOTTEN GIRL Aug04 Jul27 Jul02     (barrera oscar)ORTIZ JR 124 4.00    
2  FREEDOMOFTHEPRESS Aug04 Jul08 Jun12 May14 Apr29 (ferraro w)SAEZ LUIS 124 2.50 33% 2.00    
3  TRAIN TO ARTEMUS Aug13 Jul14 Jun17     (joseph saffie )PRAT FLAVIEN 124 3.00 ★    
4  BASTET Jul27 Jun03 May06 Feb24 Feb06 (rodriguez gus)CASTILLO AMIN 122 30.00    
5  TOWERING ORBIT May20 Apr23 Mar25 Feb11 Jan01 (baker ch)SANTANA JR 124 12.00    
6  SUMMER AT THE SPA Jul29 Jun26 May22 Apr24   (nevin michell)VELAZQUEZ R 124 6.00 16% 5.20    
7  LUCKY LATKES Jul29 May14 Mar25 Feb09 Jan01 (antonucci je)CASTELLANO J 124 15.00 8% 11.40    
8  HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH Jun26 Jun03 Mar20 Feb12 Jan13 (barker r)CARMOUCHE K 122 15.00    
9  WEEKEND FUN Aug11 Jun26 Jun03 Apr16   (begg bent)DAVIS DYLAN 122 10.00    
10  CINDERELLA'S CAUSE Jul22 Jun22 May23 May09 Mar18 (englehart chr)FRANCO MANUEL 124 12.00    
SCR  BEAUTIFUL KAREN Aug06 Mar25 Feb27 Feb06   (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 122 2.50 21% 3.80    
 
SAR-8   08/28/2022 5280ft TURF RC2 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($135K) 3 ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LEGENDS CAN'T DIE Aug17 Jul28 Jul03     (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 120 5.00    
SCR  SERIFOS Aug11 Jun15 May14 Apr14 Mar26 (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 120 20.00    
3  FLUID SITUATION Aug06 Jul02 May15 Mar27 Feb26 (terranova jo)CASTELLANO J 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  WIT Aug05 Jun11 Apr09     (pletcher todd )ORTIZ L 122 1.80 33% 2.00    
5  EMBOITE (IRE) Aug17 Jul24 Jul02 May29   (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 20.00    
SCR  CAMP DAVID Jun12 May17       (maker j)CARMOUCHE K 120 15.00    
7  NAPOLEONIC WAR Jul09 Jun04 May05 Apr08 Jan21 (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 2.00 19% 4.30    
SCR  RIOT HOUSE Apr17 Mar12       (gargan danny)ORTIZ JR 120 8.00 5% 18.90    
9  OHTWOOHTHREEFIVE Aug13 Jun26 Jun03 May05 Apr23 (weaver george)CANCEL ERIC 118 10.00    
SCR  SEAL BEACH Aug17 Jul03 Jun12     (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 18% 4.50    
 
SAR-9   08/28/2022 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Grade I Stake/Handicap Purse ($500K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CE CE Jul02 Apr23 Mar12 Feb05   (mccarthy michael)ESPINOZA V 125 2.00 34% 1.90    
  (by ELUSIVE QUALITY out of MISS HOUDINI by BELONG TO ME)
2  OBLIGATORY Jun10 May07 Mar12     (mott i)ORTIZ L 123 3.50 24% 3.20    
  (by CURLIN out of UNO DUO by MACHO UNO)
3  CARAMEL SWIRL May20         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 8.00 ★    
  (by UNION RAGS out of CARAMEL SNAP by SMART STRIKE)
4  LADY ROCKET Jun25 May08 Apr09     (cox brad)SANTANA JR 120 6.00 12% 7.10    
  (by TALE OF THE CAT out of ALLONS DANSER by ESKENDEREYA)
5  BELLA SOFIA Jul27 Jun10 May14     (rodriguez r)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.50 8% 11.90    
  (by AWESOME PATRIOT out of LOVE CONTRACT by CONSOLIDATOR)
6  TRAVEL COLUMN Jun29         (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of SWINGIT by VICTORY GALLOP)
7  GOODNIGHT OLIVE Aug07 Jun23       (brown c)ORTIZ JR 118 5.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of SALTY STRIKE by SMART STRIKE)
 
SAR-10   08/28/2022 3630ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($105K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHUCKA MOON Jan06         (hennig mark)CASTELLANO J 119 30.00    
2  ROCKET'S RED GLARE Aug03         (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 119 3.50 ★    
3  OUTLAW KID Jan28         (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 119 12.00    
4  STEADY ON         (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 ★    
5  BE THERE Jul21 Apr02 Mar13     (zito nicholas )LEZCANO JOSE 119 12.00    
6  SUPER QUALITY Jul20 Jun18 Apr15 Mar05   (atras rob)DAVIS DYLAN 119 6.00 9% 9.90    
7  SAINTHOODFORBRIAN         (klesaris steve)CARMOUCHE K 119 15.00    
8  LUPO'S LEGACY         (englehart j)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 12.00    
9  UPPER LEVEL Aug03 Jun26       (jerkens ja)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
10  BROADWAY JIMMY         (clarke d)DAVIS A 119 50.00    
11  MATT DOYLE         (rodriguez rudy)ORTIZ L 119 10.00    
12  JAVA BUZZ Aug03 Jul03       (rice linda)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 4.00 8% 11.60    
SCR  JURKOVEC Jul20         (albertrani)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 20.00    
SCR  THEREGOESMYMIRACLE Aug13 Aug03 Jul10 Jun12 May22 (seyler dougla)CARDENAS LUIS 124 30.00    
SCR  JESTER'S SONG Jun02 Apr16 Feb26 Jan13   (bond james)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.50 61% 0.60    
SCR  ATLANTIC DANCER         (zito p)RIDER TBA 119 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.