Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Tampa Bay Downs
Wednesday - January 15, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TAM-1   WIN (7/6/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/8/1)-(7/6/4/8/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/6/8/1)-(7/6/4/8/1)-(7/6/4/8/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/6/8/1)-(10/3/2/9/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/6/8/1)-(10/3/2/9/7)-(1/5/6/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
TAM-2   WIN (10/3/2/9/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/3/2/9/7)-(10/3/2/9/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/3/2/9/7)-(10/3/2/9/7)-(10/3/2/9/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/3/2/9/7)-(1/5/6/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/3/2/9/7)-(1/5/6/3)-(5/4/1/10/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
TAM-3   WIN (1/5/6/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/5/6/3)-(1/5/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/5/6/3)-(1/5/6/3)-(1/5/6/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/5/6/3)-(5/4/1/10/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/5/6/3)-(5/4/1/10/2)-(3/1/2/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
TAM-4   WIN (5/4/1/10/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/4/1/10/2)-(5/4/1/10/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/4/1/10/2)-(5/4/1/10/2)-(5/4/1/10/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/4/1/10/2)-(3/1/2/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/4/1/10/2)-(3/1/2/5)-(8/5/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
TAM-5   WIN (3/1/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/2/5)-(3/1/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/2/5)-(3/1/2/5)-(3/1/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/1/2/5)-(8/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/1/2/5)-(8/5/2)-(2/4/7/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-6   WIN (8/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/5/2)-(8/5/7/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/5/2)-(8/5/7/2)-(8/5/7/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/5/2)-(2/4/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/5/2)-(2/4/7/5)-(8/11/1/10/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
TAM-7   WIN (2/4/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/4/7/5)-(2/4/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/4/7/5)-(2/4/7/5)-(2/4/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/4/7/5)-(8/11/1/10/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/4/7/5)-(8/11/1/10/3)-(2/10/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
TAM-8   WIN (8/11/1/10/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/11/1/10/3)-(8/11/1/10/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/11/1/10/3)-(8/11/1/10/3)-(8/11/1/10/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/11/1/10/3)-(2/10/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
TAM-9   WIN (2/10/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/10/4)-(2/5/8/10/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/10/4)-(2/5/8/10/4)-(2/5/8/10/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TAM-1   01/15/2025 5400ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($20K) 3 ALL PT-12:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JR SERGIO Dec07 Nov30 Nov03     (lopez rober)HESS SARA 113 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  DANCER'S SHADOW Dec24 Oct28 Sep25 Aug24   (alessi james)HIRALDO JOHN 120 12.00    
3  NEW PLEX Dec21 Nov27 Sep07 Aug24   (gardea abraham)GIL CIPRIANO 120 3.50    
4  ALLEGRISSIMO Dec20 Nov23 Oct22 Sep23 Sep14 (arnett g)TOHILL S 120 5.00 ★    
5  NEW YORK FOG Dec21 Nov27 Oct04 Sep01   (dini mike)CASTANON L 120 8.00    
6  PRINCE LANCELOT (GB) Nov27 Nov10 Oct06 Oct02 Sep04 (o'connell kathle)FERRER C 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  HIGH WATER MARK Dec18 Aug30 Aug01     (ferraro anthon)LEON SONNY 120 1.80 72% 0.40    
8  CENTERFOLD GUY Jan04 Nov23 Oct06 Sep15 Aug09 (dobber arnou)GONZALEZ CESAR 113 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  LIBRARY Dec07 Oct13 Sep22     (laurato micha)GONZALEZ ALEX 120 15.00    
 
TAM-2   01/15/2025 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($22K) 3 F PT- 1:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WINNING SHOT Jul04         (wilson tony)MENESES MARCOS 120 20.00    
2  ALIEN PRINCESS         (rodriguez dari)MARIN SAMUEL 120 4.00 13% 6.60    
3  LUCKY FLAY Dec13 Nov20 Sep28 Jul20   (smith g)FERRER C 120 3.00 23% 3.30    
4  BETTER HAVE CASH Dec21 Nov02 Sep26     (alessi james)HIRALDO JOHN 120 30.00    
5  CROSSATI Sep14 Aug23       (pompay terri)CAMACHO SAMY 120 6.00    
6  JAZZ N BLUES Dec24 Nov20 Aug30 Jul26   (fisher davi)QUINONEZ ALONSO 120 3.50    
7  TAP BONNET Dec21         (gulick m)LEON SONNY 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  XOCHIL Dec20 Dec07 Nov03 Oct12 Jul31 (lopez rober)HESS SARA 113 30.00    
9  GRACE THE LAW         (cascallares nestor)TORRES R 120 15.00 10% 8.70    
10  MS KENDRICK B. Dec29 Dec07       (bennett gerald )CENTENO E 120 4.00 29% 2.40    
11  LA GATA SALVAJE Jan01         (mckath)ALMEDINA MARIANGELYS 113 30.00    
 
TAM-3   01/15/2025 5400ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($21K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CLOUD STORAGE Dec13 Nov23 Oct18 Aug18 Jul14 (yanez reynald)SANTOS ADEMAR 118 3.00 53% 0.90    
2  RED ELEANOR Dec07 Nov23 Oct24 Sep30 Sep23 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 118 20.00    
3  LADY DOMINANCE Jan03 Dec11 Aug17 Jul27 Jun21 (torres r)LEON SONNY 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  HOLIDAY JAZZ Nov06 Sep24 Sep09 Aug14 Jun17 (breed rona)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 118 15.00    
5  ANGELAS PARTY GIRL Dec13 Nov23 Nov04 Oct25 Oct12 (goodwin n)WILLIAMS JO 118 4.50 12% 7.50    
6  SIMMERING (GB) Dec18 Nov27 Oct31 Sep22 Aug30 (arnett g)MARIN SAMUEL 118 3.50 11% 8.20    
7  MURUMBI Jan01 Dec18 Nov27 Sep12 Aug07 (arnett g)TOHILL S 118 2.50    
8  INOUAINTALKINTOME Jan04 Dec27 Nov13 Oct21 Sep24 (torres pablo )GONZALEZ ALEX 118 6.00    
 
TAM-4   01/15/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($18K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MYA C Dec24 Dec11 Oct04 Aug15 Jul25 (hardesty l)MARAGH CHRISTIAN 108 4.50 5% 19.00    
2  BLUE VORTEX Dec29 Dec21 Nov29 Sep28 Aug31 (cahill f)HESS SARA 111 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  UPSTREET Dec24 Sep08 Jun29 Jun07 May17 (marrer)ROJAS EDUARDO 118 30.00    
4  HEAVENS EXPRESS Jan01 Aug17 Jul27 Jul12 Jun23 (guciardo kathy)MARIN SAMUEL 118 2.00 14% 6.10    
5  CHANGE ORDER Jan01 Dec13 Nov27 Oct23 Sep25 (hernandez)RODRIGUEZ ANTHONY 120 3.50 51% 1.00    
6  BLACK BULLET Nov10 Oct28 Oct15 Sep30 Sep15 (ocasio osvald)GONZALEZ ALEX 118 30.00    
7  COUNTESS OF CAIRO Sep21 Aug24 Jul06 Jun13 Apr21 (vanwinkle davi)LINDSAY CHAD 118 20.00    
8  HIGHLAND HOLIDAY Aug17 Jul27 Jul06 Jun30 Jun15 (dini mike)CAMACHO SAMY 118 5.00    
9  ZIPPY ZINNY Nov12 Oct30 Oct01 Sep12 Aug15 (mendie)ALMEDINA MARIANGELYS 111 30.00    
10  CAPTIVATING SOUND Jan05 Dec13 Oct06 Sep28 Aug23 (torre)DIAZ RAFAEL 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
TAM-5   01/15/2025 5280ft TURF RC6 FIRM Optional Claiming ($32K) Purse ($33K) 3 ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RAYDAR CONTROL Dec24         (ward dennis)GONZALEZ ALEX 118 6.00 27% 2.70    
2  SPICE BAG Aug30         (dini mike)MARIN SAMUEL 118 15.00 16% 5.30    
3  FLASH FROZEN Dec22         (o'connel)GALLARDO A 122 2.00 32% 2.10    
4  SINETIC Nov08 Oct27 Sep15 Aug30 Aug03 (machado antonio)CENTENO E 118 3.00    
5  RANSOM MONEY Oct23 Oct07 Sep20 Aug28 Aug12 (connelly)RODRIGUEZ O 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  CALVIN'S RIDE Dec21 Nov03 Oct03 Aug30   (terranova p)MARTINEZ W 118 12.00    
7  OZZY Dec21 Nov30 Nov03 Oct03 Sep02 (terranova joh)MORALES PABLO 120 6.00    
8  EMMETT Dec21 Nov30 Oct11 Sep08 Aug09 (d'angelo jose )CAMACHO SAMY 122 3.50    
 
TAM-6   01/15/2025 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($23K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOVEREIGN OF SPEED Jan08 Dec22 Dec14 Nov20 Nov02 (lopez ro)GIL CIPRIANO 118 30.00    
2  GRIMES Dec24 Nov27 Nov10 Sep29 Sep08 (spanabel k)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  NICHIREN Dec01 Nov15 Sep13 Aug17 Jun21 (crichton rohan)LEON SONNY 118 4.50    
4  EE YAH Jan05 Dec11 Nov04 Oct13 Sep25 (ocasio osvaldo)COTTO L 122 6.00    
5  AMERICAN WARRIOR Dec24 Nov20 Oct17 Oct05 Sep26 (arnett g)TOHILL S 118 3.50 7% 13.70    
6  JOHN'S PROMISE Jan05 Dec27 Dec14 Nov20 Oct30 (simone michael)MARIN SAMUEL 118 6.00    
7  DESANTIS Dec11 Nov27 Oct30 Oct12 Oct05 (bennett gera)BATISTA A 118 5.00 ★    
8  COURT AND SPARK Jan05 Dec11 Oct22 Oct08 Sep02 (simone michael)CAMACHO SAMY 118 2.00 65% 0.50    
 
TAM-7   01/15/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($27.5K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOC AMSTER Dec24 Nov29 Oct18 Aug16 Jul14 (yanez reyn)MARAGH CHRISTIAN 108 5.00    
2  FLIPPING FISH Dec14 Nov05 Oct22 Sep19 Sep02 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 118 6.00 32% 2.10    
3  SAN COSTANTINO Jan03 Dec11 Nov29 Sep24 Sep06 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 118 15.00    
4  TAKESCHARGESMILING Dec24 Nov20 Oct17 Sep26 Sep05 (rigattieri john)CENTENO E 120 4.00 23% 3.40    
5  BATI KING Dec18 Dec04 Nov03 Aug17 Aug01 (ochoa gerard)MARIN SAMUEL 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  MOR SPRING SPIRIT Dec28 Nov29 Oct15 Sep25 Sep11 (potts g)MORALES PABLO 120 5.00    
7  IMPACTO Jan04 Nov29 May01 Apr06 Mar09 (arriagada juan)HESS SARA 111 3.50 11% 8.20    
SCR  FIT TO FLY Dec06 Sep26 Aug29 Aug01 Jul07 (rivelli )GALLARDO A 118 3.00    
 
TAM-8   01/15/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($18.5K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLONEL KLINK Dec18 Aug31 Jul08 May27 May11 (arnett g)TOHILL S 120 10.00 14% 6.40    
2  LITIGANT Jan01 Dec13 Nov20 Nov02 Jun27 (ochoa gerard)FERRER C 122 5.00    
3  CHAIN REACTION Dec18 Nov13 Oct24 Sep30 Sep11 (moreno-barb)VASQUEZ WILFRED 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  AUGER Nov12 Oct23 Oct08 Sep19 Sep03 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 120 6.00    
5  ACAMAR Nov27 Oct06 Sep08 Aug18 Jul20 (mcgoe)DIAZ RAFAEL 120 30.00    
SCR  FORT ATTITUDE Dec22 Dec13 Nov16 Nov01 Sep13 (yanez reynal)MENESES MARCOS 120 20.00    
7  ITWASTHISBIG Jan01 Oct26 Sep20 Aug26 Aug18 (arnett g)MARIN SAMUEL 120 10.00    
8  JAMES GANG Dec18 Aug18 Jul19 Jun20 May23 (delgado jo)URDANETA J 120 3.50 43% 1.30    
9  PRACTICAL WAY Jan05 Dec13 Sep20 Aug12 Jul23 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 120 8.00    
10  FORWARD MOTION Dec27 Nov11 Oct22 Oct08 Sep16 (ferraro anth)CASTANON L 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
11  FACE ABARRIO Aug04 Jul13 Jun22 Jun09 May27 (delgado h)CAMACHO SAMY 120 3.00 16% 5.10    
 
TAM-9   01/15/2025 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($20K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHE'S GONE ROGUE Dec20 Dec04 Apr06 Mar17   (ubide max)ALLEN D 123 10.00    
SCR  DOWHATEVERITTAKES Dec20 Oct16 May31 May03 Mar04 (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 123 1.80 76% 0.30    
3  ELECTRIC RUNNER Jan03 Jul21 Jun27 Apr28 Apr19 (manchan c)HESS SARA 116 20.00    
4  ALTHENA Jan08 Dec20 Dec04 Aug16 Aug02 (paragallo je)GONZALEZ CESAR 116 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  PIGEON CAY Jun30 May31 May04 Aug31 Oct16 (fisher davi)QUINONEZ ALONSO 123 6.00 ★    
6  CHANNEL'S DAUGHTER Dec22 Nov03 Oct18 Sep04 Aug04 (amaya gustavo)LUGO D 123 4.50    
7  GAMBI Dec06 Nov13 Sep26 Sep13 Aug24 (alessi james)HIRALDO JOHN 123 30.00    
8  TOURIST STYLE Dec20 Dec04 Apr14 Mar23 Mar08 (cascal)ALMEDINA MARIANGELYS 116 4.00 ★    
9  JULIETA'S GIRL Jan03         (cascallares n)IORIO MELISSA 123 12.00    
10  LADY LYNX Dec22 Dec04 Oct24 Oct02   (downing william)CENTENO E 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  WINDRUSH Sep15 Jul21 Sep22     (ramirez luis)BATISTA A 123 30.00    
SCR  TINS Jan08 Nov10 Oct19 Sep04 Aug24 (ochoa gerar)OLIVEROS CHARLE 123 10.00    
SCR  PIVOT TO THE POWER (GB) Dec22 Aug19 Jun18 May20 Jun14 (reed r)VASQUEZ WILFRED 123 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.