Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Saturday - November 16, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-4   WIN (9/8/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/8/2/1)-(9/8/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/8/2/1)-(9/8/2/1)-(9/8/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (9/8/2/1)-(4/5/2/6)-(4/3/8/6) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
ARP-5   WIN (4/5/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/2/6)-(4/5/2/6/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/5/2/6)-(4/5/2/6/7)-(4/5/2/6/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ARP-6   WIN (4/3/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/8/6)-(4/3/8/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/8/6)-(4/3/8/6)-(4/3/8/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/8/6)-(7/6/9/4/1)-(8/5/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ARP-7   WIN (7/6/9/4/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/6/9/4/1)-(7/6/9/4/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/6/9/4/1)-(7/6/9/4/1)-(7/6/9/4/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/6/9/4/1)-(8/5/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
ARP-8   WIN (8/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/5/4)-(8/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/5/4)-(8/5/4)-(8/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-4   11/16/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($11.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SILENCE'S NATION Oct18 Sep09 Aug27 Aug07 Jul23 (parsons ri)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  BIG BLUE CAT Sep29 Aug24 Aug17 Jul27 Jun16 (guadarrama )VORRATH VALENTE 124 12.00 6% 15.60    
3  TIZ GIGI Oct27 Oct04       (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 121 6.00    
SCR  ALL MY VICES Oct18 Oct04 Sep13     (martinez a)CARDOSO DAVID 121 2.50    
SCR  MR. BIZ         (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 8.00    
6  WHAT THE HEY Oct25 Dec09 Nov20 Nov03 Oct07 (kemper ke)MEDINA ANGEL 122 10.00    
7  LEAF OF WISDOM Oct04 Sep21 Apr27 May14 Apr30 (lavanway )IRONEYES R 124 8.00    
8  A WALK ON THE MOON Oct25 Oct06 Feb23 Jan13   (kemper kerry)RAMOS B 122 3.50 7% 12.50    
9  ENTICED BY LOV Sep29 Sep02 Aug18 Aug04 Jul27 (mitchell chris )ARANA MINOR 122 4.50 54% 0.80    
 
ARP-5   11/16/2024 4620ft DIRT RC6 GOOD Optional Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($11.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SILVER LIGHTENING Oct19 Sep29 Sep07 Aug18 Jul28 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 124 8.00    
2  QUALITY BOW Oct26 Sep06 Jul21 Jun23 Jun02 (chavez veroni)CARDOSO DAVID 124 4.50 8% 11.10    
3  GUARDING ELK CAMP Oct26 Oct13 Sep29 Sep07 Aug31 (leon alexis)ARANA MINOR 124 10.00    
4  AMY D Oct26 Oct04 Sep20 Aug25 Aug11 (hibdon ma)MEDINA ANGEL 124 2.50 52% 0.90    
5  RIGHT OF REFUSAL Oct13 Sep29 Aug24 Aug04 Jul20 (thompson )IRONEYES R 124 3.50 9% 10.10    
6  AKASI Oct13 Sep06 Aug17 Aug04 Jul20 (thompson grady)RAMOS B 124 4.00 8% 12.30    
7  TRIBAL SPIRIT Oct13 Sep27 Sep15 Sep07 Aug24 (arceo salvador)WALES T 124 8.00 ★    
8  COLD AS YOU Nov03 Oct13 Sep27 Sep01 Aug04 (hibdon mar)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 10.00    
9  LADY LANA Oct25 Oct04 Jun30 Jun23 Jun08 (graber jessi)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 12.00    
 
ARP-6   11/16/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ORO Oct27 Oct12 Oct04 Sep22 Sep13 (jenkins l)RAMOS B 124 8.00    
SCR  TAP THE BRAKES Oct27 Oct11 Oct05 Sep16 Aug30 (arceo salv)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 6.00    
3  DANCE FOR RANSOM Oct27 Oct18 Sep28 Sep13 Jul27 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 4.50 19% 4.30    
4  CAN DANZER Nov02 Oct13 Oct04 Sep21 Sep06 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 121 2.50 43% 1.30    
5  SHAKINTHEMONARCHY Oct26 Oct13 Oct06 Sep20 Sep06 (hibdon ma)MEDINA ANGEL 122 3.50    
6  MUSKET POWDER Oct26 Oct11 Sep21 Sep02 Aug24 (scudder rick)NUNNALLY BLAKE 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  SCHLEICHER Oct05 Sep22 Sep06 Aug16 Aug01 (rushton s)IRONEYES R 124 12.00    
8  DOCS CARO CAT Nov02 Oct18 Oct12 Sep28 Sep21 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 8.00 8% 11.20    
9  WIN FOR FUN Oct27 Oct12 Sep22 Sep07 Jun30 (rushton temple)WALES T 121 2.50    
10  RANDOM AFFAIR Nov02 Oct19 Oct04 Sep13 Sep01 (burns dale)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50    
 
ARP-7   11/16/2024 5610ft DIRT RC11 GOOD Arapahoe Park Derby Purse ($38.85K) 3 ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHARMA'D Oct18 Sep28 Sep19 Sep07 Aug08 (rushton st)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPWRIT out of HEARTBREAK HILL by GHOSTZAPPER)
2  TAPITBOY Oct25 Oct06 Sep15 Aug16 Jun23 (rushton s)IRONEYES R 122 12.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of SPECIAL GAL by TAYLOR'S SPECIAL)
3  ALL ABOUT MISCHIEF Oct13 Sep21 Sep01 Jun07   (parsons riley)WALES T 122 2.50    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of MISS CASTELLI by INDIAN CHARLIE)
4  RED FROST Oct12 Sep29 Sep08 Aug11 Aug03 (long vaughn)MCNEIL BRYAN 122 6.00 7% 12.90    
  (by FROSTED out of BODEE BEAUTIFUL by BODEMEISTER)
5  COPPER SKY Nov02 Oct11 Oct05 Sep06 Aug31 (rushton temp)AGUILAR DANIEL 122 8.00    
  (by COPPER BULLET out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
6  MY BUDDY MEL Oct12 Sep27 Sep06 Aug25 Jul21 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 122 4.00 17% 4.80    
  (by TONALIST out of TILDE by SWISS YODELER)
7  TOOMANYNAMES Oct27 Sep06 Aug24 Jul28 Jul03 (rushton stacy)RAMOS B 122 2.00 30% 2.40    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of GREATEST SHOW by STORM CAT)
8  EZ FITZ Oct13 Sep28 Sep07 Aug11 Jul19 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 122 3.00    
  (by EZ EFFORT out of SNICKEL FITZ by SEATTLE FITZ (ARG))
9  SILENT REASON Oct18 Sep14 Sep03 Aug02 Jun23 (ortega joe)CARRENO J 122 10.00 15% 5.70    
  (by POINT OF ENTRY out of SWEET ROSE by HAT TRICK (JPN))
10  JET STREAM Oct27 Oct06 Aug17 Jul14 Jul06 (rushton s)MEDINA ANGEL 122 2.00    
  (by CONGRATS out of AVIATING by SHANGHAI BOBBY)
11  PROOF OF PURCHASE Oct19 Sep20 Aug29 Jul24 Jul03 (rushton stac)NUNNALLY BLAKE 122 8.00    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of SHOPPER by BERNSTEIN)
 
ARP-8   11/16/2024 3960ft DIRT RC11 GOOD Debutante Purse ($37.8K) 3 F PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KONA KINLEY Oct26 Oct11 Sep27 Sep13 Jun23 (rushton temp)AGUILAR DANIEL 122 12.00    
  (by PROTONICO out of SUGAR QUEEN by GEMOLOGIST)
SCR  LADY ATHENA Oct26 Oct13 Sep29 Sep06 Aug19 (williams )IRONEYES R 122 10.00    
  (by OCEAN KNIGHT out of ROSE GUITAR by STAR GUITAR)
3  ART QUEEN Oct05 Sep08 Jul17 Jun16 Jun08 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 122 6.00    
  (by TONALIST out of DONTSTOPQUITNO by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
4  LONG MAY SHE RUN Nov03 Oct13 Sep21 Aug18 Aug03 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 122 8.00 10% 8.70    
  (by KLIMT out of RATE OF EXCHANGE by EXCHANGE RATE)
5  ARIZONA REINA Oct18 Sep27 Sep07 Jul27 Jul20 (ortega joe)WALES T 122 3.00 25% 2.90    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of HONEY CANDY by DESPERATELY)
SCR  RASPBERRY WINE Oct18 Sep08 Aug10 Jul27 Jul14 (rust terri)RAMOS B 122 3.50    
  (by CAT BURGLAR out of GIVEN STAR by ANY GIVEN SATURDAY)
7  CRESSONS LIL CHARM Sep29 Jul31 Jul07 Jun22 Jun09 (hibdon ma)MEDINA ANGEL 122 4.50    
  (by LEWIS MICHAEL out of ARTISTIC CHARM by DUTCH ART)
8  ZORINA Oct05 Sep18 Aug28 Aug06 Jul15 (moreno car)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 2.50 27% 2.80    
  (by ENTICED out of MAGDALENA'S MOMENT by HARBOR THE GOLD)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.