Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Saturday - September 21, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-1   WIN (5/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/4)-(5/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
ARP-2   WIN (5/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/4)-(5/2/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-4   WIN (3/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/1)-(3/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/1)-(3/5/1)-(3/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (3/5/1)-(2/3/1)-(6/5/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ARP-5   WIN (2/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/1)-(2/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/1)-(2/3/1)-(2/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-6   WIN (6/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/1)-(6/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/1)-(6/5/1)-(6/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-8   WIN (2/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/4)-(2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-1   09/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($17K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DAX A DREAMING Sep01 Aug18 Jul20 Jun29 Jun16 (haar j)RAMOS B 122 2.50    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of ALEC'S MOON by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  DEONTE         (piantes john)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 12.00    
  (by ZIP QUIK out of WE NEED A MIRACLE by MONOPOLY MONEY)
SCR  ALWAYS PERFECT May27         (whitehouse wi)CARDOSO DAVID 124 8.00    
  (by BIG BAD LEROYBROWN out of IN PERFECT STYLE by PERFECT MANDATE)
4  GRACEFULLYBROKE         (rushton s)IRONEYES R 119 10.00 25% 3.00    
  (by APACHE PARK out of BROKEANLOVINGIT by BLUEGRASS CAT)
5  OLD FASHION TIME Dec18 Nov07 Oct18 Sep09 Aug27 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 121 4.50 37% 1.70    
  (by MAJOR BIG TIME out of OLD FASHION LOVE by BELLINGHAM)
6  LEAF OF WISDOM Apr27 May14 Apr30 Feb14 Dec13 (lavanway day)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 3.50    
  (by THE BRAIN out of LOST MY LEAF by VALID WAGER)
 
ARP-2   09/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($10.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JANIS Sep08 Jul31 Jul04 Jun18 Jun08 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 2.00    
2  HAUGHTY KITTY Aug11 Jul21 Jul07 Jun23 Jun08 (ortega jo)IRONEYES R 119 10.00 19% 4.30    
3  CINCO GAL Sep06 Aug10 Jul21 Jun30 Jun08 (hibdon mar)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 2.50    
4  IMA HOT TOTTIE Jul17 Jun19 Oct28 Oct22 Sep04 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 8.00 8% 11.80    
5  DEL MAR LABOR DAY Aug24 Aug18 Aug03 Jun15 Jan07 (mckinney kyn)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 6.00 30% 2.40    
6  IMA HAPPY DANCER Jul10 Jun19 Oct22 Oct01 Sep02 (rushton stetson)RAMOS B 121 12.00    
 
ARP-4   09/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INCITATUS Jul14 Jun22 Jun02 May03 Apr19 (rushton stacy)HAAR NATHAN 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  TOMBI Sep01 Aug04 Jun30 Jun13 Jun01 (rushton s)IRONEYES R 116 6.00    
3  GOLDEN BAND Aug04 Jun29 Jun01 May18 May05 (long vaughn)RAMOS B 124 2.50 35% 1.90    
4  GOOSE DRANK WINE Sep01 Aug23 Jul28 Jun30 Jun22 (rushton st)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 4.50    
5  MAJESTIC LIAISON Sep01 Aug30 Aug18 Jul27 Jul06 (mckinney kyn)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 8.00 27% 2.70    
6  CAN DANZER Sep06 Aug10 Aug03 Jul20 Jun28 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 121 3.50    
 
ARP-5   09/21/2024 3300ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($21.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIME TO SKIP TOWN Aug12 Jul31 Jun25 Oct02 Sep19 (rushton st)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  PALACE PATCH Sep06 Aug17 Aug04 Jul13 Jun29 (vicchrilli ru)CARDOSO DAVID 122 2.00 63% 0.60    
3  ALL ABOUT MISCHIEF Sep01 Jun07       (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 122 3.50 7% 12.90    
4  JAKE ON DAKAN Sep08 Jul20 Jul07 Jun08 May04 (long vaughn)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 4.50    
5  GUTFIELD Sep09 Aug27 Aug07 Jul30 Jul09 (kemper kerry)RAMOS B 124 8.00    
 
ARP-6   09/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST LarriLou Purse ($45.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LONG MAY SHE RUN Aug18 Aug03 Jun02 Sep09 Aug12 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KLIMT out of RATE OF EXCHANGE by EXCHANGE RATE)
2  FLYING LADY Sep13 Aug11 Jun29 Apr04 Oct08 (martinez a)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 3.50    
  (by BIRDSTONE out of SANDHILL LADY by OLIVER'S TWIST)
3  BRING THE POSSE Sep09 Aug14 Jul29 Jul16 Jun24 (kemper kerry)CARDOSO DAVID 124 6.00    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of LADY POSSE by POSSE)
4  BEHOLD THAT WORD Jul18 Oct03 Sep19 Sep04 Aug21 (rushton s)IRONEYES R 124 12.00    
  (by BEHOLD DE BUY out of FINAL WORD by CLOSING ARGUMENT)
5  ROCKIN MARIE Jul14 Jun30 Jun02 May04 Apr20 (long vaugh)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 2.50 31% 2.30    
  (by ROCKY BAR out of YELLOW CHUMARINE by CHUMAREE)
6  CELEE'S LAST TE Sep08 Jul14 Jun15 Sep23 Sep09 (vicchrilli russel)RAMOS B 124 4.50 46% 1.20    
  (by TULSA TE out of CELEE by CONGAREE)
 
ARP-8   09/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Aspen Purse ($45.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLLUSIONIST Sep07 Aug11 Jul27 Jun08 Apr06 (martinez a)CARDOSO DAVID 124 2.50 26% 2.90    
  (by EZ EFFORT out of PRETTY AMAZING by BENCHMARK)
2  QUICKTRIP VAN Sep07 Aug11 Aug03 Jul20 Jun30 (vicchrilli)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 3.50 44% 1.30    
  (by ZIP QUIK out of BLISSFUL TRIP by TRIPPI)
SCR  HOYA PARANOYA Mar15 Feb18 Jan05 Dec12 Nov07 (oliver kim)LULL E 124 6.00    
  (by MUCHO MACHO MAN out of LOST IN SUCCESS by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
4  TULSA TIME Sep07 Jul21 Jun30 Jun15 Sep24 (vicchrilli russel)RAMOS B 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TULSA TE out of MISS CASTELLI by INDIAN CHARLIE)
5  DOCS CARO CAT Jul03 Jun19 Oct27 Oct21 Sep30 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 10.00    
  (by BEHOLD DE BUY out of CARO KITTY by TROPICAL STORM)
6  WHEELER DEALER Sep07 Aug19 Aug09 Jul13 Jun15 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50    
  (by ZIP QUIK out of SHEETS by SCATMANDU)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.