Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Fort Erie
Tuesday - September 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
FE-1   WIN (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/3)-(1/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/3)-(2/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
FE-2   WIN (2/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/5)-(2/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (2/5)-(2/7/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
FE-3   WIN (2/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/7/1)-(2/7/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/7/1)-(2/7/1)-(2/7/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/7/1)-(2/4/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-4   WIN (2/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/6)-(2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/6)-(4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
FE-5   WIN (4/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/1)-(4/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/1)-(7/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
FE-6   WIN (7/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/6/5)-(7/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/6/5)-(7/6/5)-(7/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
FE-1   09/19/2023 5940ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($22.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HALF LIT Sep04 Aug21 Aug07 Jul24 Jul10 (keen h)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 119 5.00 41% 1.40    
2  A I INITIATIVE Sep05 Aug29 Aug15 Aug07 Jul24 (ceccato shar)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 2.00    
3  REDOUTE'S LIGHT Aug25 Aug11 Jul10 Jul03 Jun02 (robill)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 124 3.00 20% 3.90    
4  FOUR KNIGHTS Aug29 Aug07 Jul24 Jul03 Jun18 (bl)BOULANGER CHANCE 124 4.50    
5  DIAMONDBACK Sep12 Aug21 Aug07 Jun27 May30 (crete pierr)WENC C 122 2.50    
 
FE-2   09/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($22.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JIBARO Aug01 Jul14 Jun25 Jun09 Dec02 (robillard julie)JADOO STEVE 122 2.00    
2  SHAKOO MAKOO Sep04 Aug21 Jul10 Jun13 May23 (alders)ALDERSON IAN 124 1.80 57% 0.80    
3  ONE MORE RING Aug29 Aug13 Jul24 Jul11 Jun12 (buttig)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 3.50    
4  EXCEED Sep12 Jul31 Jul18 Jun27 Jun09 (agostino roy)CHEYNE A 122 8.00    
5  CORE Sep04 Aug21 Aug01 Jul18 Jul11 (warner k)MAILHOT P 122 4.00 13% 6.40    
 
FE-3   09/19/2023 3300ft TURF RC6 GOOD Optional Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($24.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SNELL FLICKA Sep05 Aug07 Jul18 Jul04 Jun13 (bl)BOULANGER CHANCE 122 6.00 20% 4.00    
2  MUSICAL RIDE Aug28 Jul25 Jul11 Jun18 Jan18 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 124 3.00 31% 2.30    
3  MY FINAL TRICK Aug21 Jun06 Apr22 Dec08 Nov19 (lister steven)HOYTE JASON 122 8.00    
SCR  BODACIOUS MISS Sep07 Aug24 Jul15 Jun15 May19 (voyce )VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 2.00    
5  BRIENNE OF TARTH Aug21 Jul31 Jul20 Jul10 Jun13 (robillard julie)CRAWFORD J 122 8.00    
6  SPARKLE SAMMY Aug28 Aug03 Jul20 Jun15 Jun04 (albu ken)JOHNSON KIRK 122 4.00    
7  FOREST B Aug28 Aug22 Jul16 Jun06 Apr30 (powell dale )SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 10.00 20% 3.90    
 
FE-4   09/19/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($19.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REMEMBEROLDTYMES Sep05 Aug08 Jul18 Jul04 Jun12 (robill)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 4.00    
2  JARA Aug08 Jul04 Jun06 Apr29 Apr07 (davis m)MAILHOT P 124 3.00 37% 1.70    
3  SHELLY THE ROCKET Sep05 Aug22 Aug07 Jul25 Jul04 (simms )ALDERSON IAN 122 2.00    
4  LOUEMMA Sep05 Aug22 Aug08 Jul10 Jun27 (blake michael)PINTO MELANIE 122 2.50 16% 5.40    
5  PACENZA Sep05 Aug21 Jun12 May30 May02 (humber josep)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 119 15.00    
6  SWEET FINALE Aug07 Jul25 Jul04 Jun12 Oct17 (agostino roy)CHEYNE A 122 8.00 15% 5.70    
 
FE-5   09/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($24.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GIMBALA Sep04 Aug22 Jul16 Jul04 Jun18 (simms )ALDERSON IAN 122 3.50 28% 2.60    
2  GREEN GABLES Sep04 Aug28 Aug15 Aug07 Jul25 (capi m)RAMSAMMY E 124 4.00    
3  SNEAKY REBEL Sep04 Aug15 Aug07 Jul16 Jul10 (powell d)BUCHANAN Z 122 4.50    
4  STORMING LADY Aug28 Aug17 Jul18 Jun18 Apr23 (adamo )VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 2.00 46% 1.20    
5  SIMPLE SOUVENIR Sep07 Aug24 Jun29 Jun16 May14 (chircop stev)KIMURA KAZUSHI 124 2.50    
 
FE-6   09/19/2023 3300ft TURF RC7 GOOD Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($19.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SILVER TUNES Aug28 Jul16 Jun23 Apr22 May26 (robillard josh)SALLES LEO 120 4.00    
2  BETTABE SWIFT Sep05 Jan11 Jan02 Dec06 Nov27 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 120 15.00    
3  CRUMLIN BIRD Sep05 Aug21 Jul25 Jun27 May23 (chudobiak ga)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 8.00    
4  MS. P'S BELLA Aug21 Aug15 Jul25 Jul18 Jul04 (robillard juli)JOHNSON KIRK 120 6.00    
5  BABY MO Aug21 Jul25 Jun16 May25 Nov03 (maynard desm)NICHOLLS KEVEH 122 8.00 14% 6.40    
6  HASN'T HIT ME YET Aug21 Aug08 Jul25 Jul04 Jun18 (maynard desmond)CRAWFORD J 120 3.00 18% 4.60    
7  FRERET Sep07 Aug21 Jul11 Jun16 May23 (fournier mark)MORENO OMAR 124 2.50 42% 1.40    
SCR  FRESH DREAMS Sep07 Aug08 Jul25 Jul11 Jun26 (cohen michael)MAILHOT P 122 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.