Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Hawthorne
Thursday - May 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
HAW-1   WIN (2/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/4)-(2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/4)-(6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/1/4)-(6/1)-(6/2/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
HAW-2   WIN (6/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/1)-(6/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/1)-(6/2/3/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/1)-(6/2/3/5)-(8/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
HAW-3   WIN (6/2/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/3/5)-(6/2/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/3/5)-(6/2/3/5)-(6/2/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/3/5)-(8/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/2/3/5)-(8/7/2)-(2/1/6/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
HAW-4   WIN (8/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/7/2)-(8/7/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/7/2)-(8/7/2/5)-(8/7/2/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/7/2)-(2/1/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/7/2)-(2/1/6/3)-(3/5/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
HAW-5   WIN (2/1/6/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/1/6/3)-(2/1/6/3/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (2/1/6/3)-(2/1/6/3/7)-(2/1/6/3/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (2/1/6/3)-(3/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/1/6/3)-(3/5/7)-(4/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
HAW-6   WIN (3/5/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/7)-(3/5/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/7)-(3/5/7)-(3/5/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/7)-(4/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/5/7)-(4/8)-(1/7/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
HAW-7   WIN (4/8) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/8)-(4/8/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/8)-(4/8/1/5)-(4/8/1/5) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (4/8)-(1/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
HAW-8   WIN (1/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/5)-(1/7/5/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/7/5)-(1/7/5/8)-(1/7/5/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
HAW-1   05/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.5K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EASTER MUSIC Apr23 Apr09 Dec18 Dec09 Nov18 (hernandez arma)LEZCANO ABEL 122 2.50 28% 2.60    
2  D'ARCHER Apr06 Mar05 Feb02 Jan11 Dec09 (childers va)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 3.00 32% 2.20    
3  FORT RIDGE Apr16 Apr06 Dec09 Nov20 Sep27 (bahena ferna)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 10.00    
4  BORN AGAIN GEORGE Apr21 Mar24 Mar15 Feb04 Dec30 (clay pat)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 12.00 15% 5.60    
5  RISKY BOY Apr23 Apr06 Mar19 Mar05 Jan24 (shephard john)SANCHEZ DIEGO 122 1.40    
SCR  APPLICANT Apr18 Dec18 Dec03 Nov13 Oct30 (childers van)TAVARES JAVIER 122 12.00    
 
HAW-2   05/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($14K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOUPER FORTUNE Apr09 Mar09 Nov26 Nov04 Oct15 (reid r)COLON H 122 6.00 6% 15.60    
2  CHRISTMAS PRESENT Apr27 Apr09 Mar05 Dec31 Dec17 (cook brian)WADE LYNDIE 122 12.00    
3  SHACKLEFORD STRONG Apr23 Mar30 Mar12 Feb03 Jan07 (meraz ant)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 122 4.00    
4  IDEA MAN Apr19 Sep13 Aug22 Jul06 May25 (reid r)GILES EMMANUEL 117 3.50    
SCR  PUBLIC SAFETY Apr09 Mar12 Dec30 Oct15 Sep15 (rosin w)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 3.00 14% 6.10    
6  THE LAST FACT Apr20 Mar26 Mar12 Dec30 Nov20 (kirby frank)SANTIAGO VICTOR 124 1.80 51% 0.90    
 
HAW-3   05/11/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($11K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STOLICH Apr27 Apr01 Mar07 Feb10 Jan27 (clay pat)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 117 6.00    
2  AWESOME WILLY Apr06 Mar16 Dec31 Nov19 Oct28 (becker scot)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 3.50 18% 4.60    
3  OPTION Apr23 Apr06 Nov18 Oct22 Oct07 (meraz antonio)COLON H 122 4.00 16% 5.20    
4  MASQUERADE BALL Mar09 Feb24 Feb16 Jan27 Jan06 (perez manny)GILES EMMANUEL 117 20.00    
5  KEEN RESPONSE Apr06 Feb11 Dec17 Dec04 Nov18 (mosier haro)ARRIETA REYNIER 122 8.00 12% 7.10    
6  IMPULSIVENESS Apr23 Mar25 Feb25 Feb04 Jan15 (winebaugh chery)REYES ANGEL 122 1.60 27% 2.70    
7  MADELYNS HEAT Dec30 Dec04 Nov13 Oct16 Oct01 (cook brian)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 20.00    
8  WHERE'S LUCKY Apr23 Apr06 Mar19 Mar05 Feb04 (perez manny)LEZCANO ABEL 122 12.00    
 
HAW-4   05/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WOLF HUNTER Mar18 Mar09 Feb23 Feb12 Feb03 (perez manny)LEZCANO ABEL 118 5.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of QUEEN DIDO by THUNDER GULCH)
2  REJECTION HURTS         (berndt jo)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 118 4.00 13% 6.90    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of LOVE THE BREEDING by HENNY HUGHES)
3  RUSSIAN STANDARD         (perez man)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 118 6.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of SILVER FERN by BERNARDINI)
4  JAKES CHANNEL Feb03 Dec30       (rednour jr)REYES ANGEL 118 20.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of SETTLING IN by GREEN DESERT)
5  MINING CAMP Apr23 Apr13 Mar19 Mar05 Dec31 (slager leonar)HERNANDEZ K 124 4.50 ★    
  (by GIO PONTI out of KALUGA by UNCLE MO)
6  J J'S SOLUTION Apr16 Dec30 Dec10 Nov19 Oct29 (rednour j)COLON H 124 8.00    
  (by REAL SOLUTION out of LITTLE RED WITCH by KITALPHA)
7  YO DAWG Jun10 May20       (berndt jo)ULLOA JOAN 124 6.00 24% 3.20    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of NOBODY'S FAULT by BLAME)
8  EASY FAST         (divito james)GILES EMMANUEL 113 3.00 40% 1.50    
  (by VIOLENCE out of RIDE TO HOUSTON by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
 
HAW-5   05/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($17K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VERRAZANOINTHESKY Apr16 Mar26 Dec24 Nov23 Oct09 (banks chris)EMIGH A 122 5.00 18% 4.40    
2  PRIZE FIGHTER Apr16 Sep15 Aug25 Aug10 Jul28 (berndt jo)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 122 3.50 38% 1.60    
3  BUREAU Dec17 Nov20 Nov04 Oct07 Sep03 (watkins jame)TAVARES JAVIER 122 8.00 6% 15.30    
4  BRUCE BANNER Apr21 Feb18 Jan21 Dec16 Nov13 (campbell micha)LEZCANO ABEL 122 12.00    
5  I'M YOUR CAPTAIN Apr16 Feb20 Feb02 Jan22   (robertson h)SANTIAGO VICTOR 124 6.00    
6  UNCLE HEADLEY Apr08 Mar09 Feb10 Jan19 Dec22 (meraz antoni)CENTENO ALEXIS 116 3.00 12% 7.50    
7  MONGOLIAN BEE Apr09 Feb17 Feb03     (scherer gary)WADE LYNDIE 116 10.00 ★    
8  GALLANT BUCK Feb17 Jan06 Dec16 Dec03 Oct08 (rodriguez edu)HERNANDEZ K 116 8.00    
9  MODIFIER Apr09 Mar19 Dec31 Nov27   (perez manny)GILES EMMANUEL 117 20.00    
 
HAW-6   05/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($31.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FROSTED ECLAIR Apr20 Mar30 Mar12 Oct21 Sep30 (watkins jame)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 12.00    
SCR  CANTOO Apr27 Apr02 Mar12 Dec30 Dec03 (wainwright j)GILES EMMANUEL 113 4.50    
3  SLEEPY CAT Apr09         (robertson hugh)EMIGH A 116 6.00 23% 3.30    
4  BEG BORROW N STEAL Apr20 Mar30 Dec31 Dec09 Nov18 (goldfine micke)COLON H 122 2.50    
5  TIME BREAK Apr20 Mar30 Dec31 Dec16 Nov27 (jansen ke)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 5.00 23% 3.30    
6  GHAALEB'S RANGER Apr20 Jul22 Jul05 Jun21 May28 (becker scot)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 4.00    
7  CAT ROYALE Apr20 Dec30 Dec03 Nov12   (boyce mic)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 116 6.00 17% 4.80    
 
HAW-7   05/11/2023 5490ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($33K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BABA'S BOY Dec18 Nov20 Sep24 Sep10 Aug27 (bahena fe)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 122 15.00 ★    
2  SILVER QUARTERS Apr16 Dec11 Nov20 Oct29   (manley steve)TAVARES JAVIER 122 8.00    
3  SOUL COAXING Jan28 Dec29 Sep17 Jun19 Jun02 (robertson h)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 4.50    
4  GITA'S LAD Mar30 Dec18 Dec11 Nov20 Oct29 (young r)LEZCANO ABEL 122 3.50 61% 0.60    
5  EMPIRE BUILDER Apr13 Jan21 Dec30 Oct27 Sep07 (hernandez armando)EMIGH A 124 6.00 ★    
6  WISE VERDICT Mar26 Mar05 Jan28 Dec30 Dec10 (scherer gary)WADE LYNDIE 122 6.00    
SCR  PROTONIC POWER Apr16 Mar10 Feb04 Jan07 Oct21 (hernandez ar)GILES EMMANUEL 117 3.00    
8  KHOZAN'S VALENTINE Apr06 Mar12 Dec31 Dec11 Nov19 (mosier haro)ARRIETA REYNIER 122 10.00 16% 5.20    
SCR  BLAZEN ROAD Apr06 Nov04 Oct14 Oct01 Sep10 (manley steve)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 20.00    
 
HAW-8   05/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THE SCORE IS EVEN         (becker scot)SANTIAGO VICTOR 124 3.50 37% 1.70    
2  PACIFIC VIEW Dec31         (clay pat)GILES EMMANUEL 113 10.00    
3  MISS MIA May02 Apr09 Mar23 Mar12 Dec02 (quinonez max)CENTENO ALEXIS 118 6.00    
4  TWICK OR TWEAT Apr20 Mar19 Mar05     (villa franc)ORTEGA O 118 20.00    
5  DILLYDILLY DIAMOND         (ryan a)LOPEZ A 124 15.00 15% 5.60    
6  SALLY'S SUPRISE Apr27         (rodriguez edu)HERNANDEZ K 118 3.00    
7  SONG OF AMERICA Apr20 Mar16 Jan18 Dec23 Dec03 (campbell micha)LEZCANO ABEL 118 4.00 17% 4.80    
8  LADA KALINA Apr20 Apr02 Mar19 Mar05   (hernandez ja)TAVARES JAVIER 118 5.00 ★    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.