Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Lone Star Park
Saturday - April 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
LS-1   WIN (5/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/3)-(5/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/3)-(5/1/3)-(5/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    PK3 NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
LS-2   WIN NO BET 0 $2.00 $0.00 
    EXA NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    PK3 NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
LS-3   WIN (2/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/1)-(2/4/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/4/1)-(2/4/1/5)-(2/4/1/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/4/1)-(2/8/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/4/1)-(2/8/5/4)-(6/7/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
LS-4   WIN (2/8/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/8/5/4)-(2/8/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/8/5/4)-(2/8/5/4)-(2/8/5/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/8/5/4)-(6/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/8/5/4)-(6/7/1)-(10/6/3/8/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
LS-5   WIN (6/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/1)-(6/7/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7/1)-(6/7/1)-(6/7/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/7/1)-(10/6/3/8/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/7/1)-(10/6/3/8/7)-(6/2/3/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
LS-6   WIN (10/6/3/8/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/6/3/8/7)-(10/6/3/8/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/6/3/8/7)-(10/6/3/8/7)-(10/6/3/8/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/6/3/8/7)-(6/2/3/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/6/3/8/7)-(6/2/3/4)-(5/8) 40 $0.50 $20.00 
LS-7   WIN (6/2/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/3/4)-(6/2/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/3/4)-(6/2/3/4)-(6/2/3/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/3/4)-(5/8) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/2/3/4)-(5/8)-(3/8/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
LS-8   WIN (5/8) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/8)-(5/8/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/8)-(5/8/4/3)-(5/8/4/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (5/8)-(3/8/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
LS-9   WIN (3/8/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/8/2)-(3/8/2/10/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/8/2)-(3/8/2/10/5)-(3/8/2/10/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
LS-1   04/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($14K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOT STOVE LEAGUE Mar11 Jan27 Jan08 Dec17 Dec07 (ashford)GONCALVES R 124 3.00 12% 7.30    
2  LAB RAT Mar24 Feb17 Jan21 Nov14 Oct26 (scholl kevi)WETHEY JR 124 1.80    
3  DAAHERS BULLY Apr02 Mar19 Jan21 Jan04 Nov19 (b)DE CRUZ 124 12.00 10% 8.70    
SCR  DRUM AND BASS Apr02 Mar24 Mar04 Feb19 Feb05 (davidson sar)PIVARAL GERBER 124 20.00    
5  CAYMANS COBRA Apr01 Mar19 Jan22 Jan08 Nov14 (duhon pau)RODRIGUEZ ANARDIS 124 4.00 50% 1.00    
6  FRANK THE MAYOR Mar03 Jan20 Dec21 Nov19 Nov05 (brob)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 124 2.50    
 
LS-2   04/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33K) 3 ALL PT- 3:03
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TIZ BODHI BOY Mar12 Feb26 Feb11     (pish danny)WETHEY JR 122 2.50 19% 4.40    
  (by HALF OURS out of CADEBRIE by TIZNOW)
2  HYPERION NORTH Mar17 Mar05 Feb26 Jan28 Jan07 (t)DE CRUZ 122 12.00    
  (by HYPERION TAP out of LEGACY'S HOPE by ALDEBARAN)
3  MR. VALENTINO Mar31 Mar17 Feb24     (keen dallas)HAMILTON WESTON 122 10.00 ★    
  (by REVOLVING out of FLAIR FOR FASHION by OLD FASHIONED)
4  XANDER S Mar31         (padilla carlos)MORA GERARDO 122 20.00    
  (by ROMAN GLADIATOR out of DIXIE DUCES by CARSON CITY)
5  RIP RULES Mar31         (echeverri)CONTRERAS ALFREDO 122 20.00    
  (by BRADESTER out of GIRL'S RULE by ROMAN RULER)
SCR  HARD GOLD Mar31 Mar17 Mar05 Feb18 Jan28 (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 122 1.00 54% 0.90    
  (by MY GOLDEN SONG out of MAQUITA ELAINE by HARD SPUN)
7  PLAIN TAP WATER Nov21 Oct25 Sep23 Aug20   (capp)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 122 3.50 ★    
  (by TAPITURE out of SHE'S PLAIN JANE by INTO MISCHIEF)
 
LS-3   04/15/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($33.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEXAS ASCOT QUEEN Mar25 Feb25 Feb04 Jan13 Jul09 (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 122 6.00 14% 6.20    
2  DOWNTOWN ABBY Mar18 Jul01 Jun12 May05 Mar19 (calhoun will)ALVAREZ L 120 2.50 37% 1.70    
3  BABY BLUE EYES Apr01 Feb25 Feb11 Jan20 Dec15 (ashf)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 120 15.00    
4  TOTAL MALICE Apr01 Mar23 Mar08 Feb09 Dec11 (g)DE CRUZ 122 4.00 20% 4.00    
5  MARIAH'S CANDY Apr02 Feb26 Feb05 Dec20 Nov19 (gelner j)MORA GERARDO 124 5.00 ★    
6  DEL MAR DRAMA Feb17 Feb05 Jan06 Nov27 Aug27 (diodoro robertino)ELLIOTT S 120 2.00    
7  SUMMER CAT Mar18 Feb11 Jan14 Dec15 Nov19 (eoff terry)BARANDELA SOFIA 119 15.00    
 
LS-4   04/15/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:59
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IN THE FAST LANE Mar10 Feb17 Jan22 Jan07 Jul21 (caldwell j )HAMILTON WESTON 118 15.00    
2  ABIGAIL ALDEN Feb24 Jul08 Jun10 Apr30 Mar18 (k)DE CRUZ 124 4.00 51% 1.00    
3  LUMBERJACK LESLIE Mar10 Feb24 Jan27 Jul04 May22 (jack)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 124 12.00    
4  MAMA'S NIGHT OUT Feb25 Feb11       (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  STARTECA Jan28 Jan08 Jun26 Jun05   (calhoun will)ALVAREZ L 118 2.50 5% 19.00    
6  QUEENS HOLIDAY Mar10 Feb11 Jan27 Jan06 Oct28 (padilla car)WETHEY JR 118 6.00    
7  PHUNK Mar26 Mar04 Feb11 Jan06 Jul17 (davis sha)RODRIGUEZ ANARDIS 118 5.00    
8  SHEZA HUNK Oct07 Sep17 Sep06 Aug16 Jun19 (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 124 3.00 13% 6.40    
 
LS-5   04/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($33.5K) 3 ALL PT- 4:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POSEIDONS WAVE Mar04 Feb11 Jan28     (clary jayla)HAMILTON WESTON 122 4.50 7% 13.00    
2  SLIM JIMMY Apr07 Mar12 Feb11 Jan16 Dec14 (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 122 15.00    
3  NIGHTWIND Mar31 Mar04 Feb18 Jan16 Nov03 (young scott)WETHEY JR 122 6.00    
4  MY BOY BLING Mar17 Feb26 Jan28 Jan07 Nov22 (baldi)MANRRIQUE JOSE 122 3.50    
SCR  DOUGH BOY Mar31 Mar04 Jan28 Jul23 Jun26 (pish danny)MORA GERARDO 122 8.00 9% 9.70    
6  GUITAR BOY Mar25 Feb18 Jan28 Dec19 Nov22 (ashford)GONCALVES R 122 3.00 29% 2.40    
7  NOISE COMPLAINT Mar26 Feb26 Jan07 Nov25 Jul17 (calhoun will)ALVAREZ L 122 2.50 28% 2.60    
 
LS-6   04/15/2023 4950ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($30K) Purse ($34.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CLIFF DIVER Mar17 Mar04 Feb20 Oct15 Oct01 (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 120 8.00    
2  OPTIMAL TRIP Feb19 Jan28 Nov25 Nov12 Nov05 (rossi j)DIEGO V 120 12.00    
3  ROBO Mar16 Mar05 Feb18 Jan22 Jan14 (govea cesar)BARANDELA SOFIA 117 2.50 15% 5.50    
4  HOOVES YOUR DADDY Mar19 Feb10 Dec16 Nov22 Nov07 (young scott)WETHEY JR 124 12.00    
5  KISS ME D ORO Mar28 Mar14 Mar07 Jan17 Dec13 (loma humberto )MORA GERARDO 120 30.00    
6  FRED'STWIRLINCANDY Mar05 Feb24 Jan07 Nov08 Oct27 (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 120 3.50 20% 4.00    
7  BUBBA BLING Mar25 Mar05 Jul17 Jun19 May22 (dupuy allen)ALVAREZ L 120 15.00 8% 11.70    
8  MALIBU S S Feb23 Jan26 Dec17 Oct17 Sep30 (b)DE CRUZ 122 5.00 9% 10.10    
9  PARROT HEAD Feb18 Jan30       (govea cesar)HAMILTON WESTON 120 15.00    
10  WHISKEY NOT WINE Feb19 Jan14 Nov03 Oct26 Sep24 (willis mindy)ELLIOTT S 124 4.50 22% 3.50    
SCR  KOKOKOMO Apr08 Mar17 Feb24 Feb10 Jan21 (pish danny)OLIVEROS CHARLE 124 2.00    
 
LS-7   04/15/2023 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($13K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HAILEY'S JEWEL Mar19 Feb17 Jan15 Nov26 Oct24 (g)DE CRUZ 118 20.00    
2  GRANTASTIC MARIA Mar26         (scholl kevi)WETHEY JR 118 2.00 16% 5.10    
3  DOC'S BUD         (willis mindy)ELLIOTT S 124 5.00 10% 9.00    
4  PIEL MORENA Mar26 Mar12 Feb25     (chacaltana )OLIVEROS CHARLE 118 15.00 6% 14.70    
5  SKYSPEIGHT Mar12 Feb17 Feb05     (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 118 15.00    
6  KAYLEE'S SHADOW Mar19 Feb25 Jan27 Jan06 Jul10 (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 118 1.40 41% 1.40    
7  WITT'S GRIS Mar26 Mar10 Feb25 Feb11   (davidson sar)PIVARAL GERBER 118 20.00    
8  CRANKY SHEILA Mar26 Mar04 Feb11 Jan27 Jan06 (whitelaw mi)HAMILTON WESTON 118 4.50    
 
LS-8   04/15/2023 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($13K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUSTCAUSEICAN Feb07 Dec05 Jul21 Jun26   (cappellucci )ALVAREZ L 118 10.00    
2  MEMORABLE FLIGHT Jan15 Nov12 Oct22 Oct01 Sep09 (hebert matt)DIEGO V 124 4.50    
3  GLITZ AND GLAMOUR Mar19 Feb25 Jan22 Jul04 May14 (b)DE CRUZ 118 5.00 ★    
4  SATIN HEART Mar19 Feb26 Feb11 Jan27 Jan06 (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 118 3.50 ★    
5  FREE DROP GYPSY         (scholl kevi)WETHEY JR 118 4.00 36% 1.80    
6  PHARME'S PHINALE Mar19 Feb11 Sep19 Sep09 Aug27 (jacks karen)OLIVEROS CHARLE 124 15.00    
7  J M SKY CLASSIC Jan27 Jan15 Aug14 May12 Apr28 (mejia jacobo)MORA GERARDO 124 10.00    
8  ANNA B Mar26 Mar12 Feb25 Feb05 Jan06 (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 118 3.00 35% 1.80    
 
LS-9   04/15/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAN IN THE MIDDLE Apr02 Mar18 Feb20 Feb04 Jan16 (castellanos)OLIVEROS CHARLE 124 30.00    
  (by MAGNA GRADUATE out of DAME FORTUNE by INTO MISCHIEF)
2  GOLDEN FLASH Mar22 Feb20 Jul24 Jul08 Jun26 (villa)MANRRIQUE JOSE 124 12.00 12% 7.40    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of FRUHL'S GOLD by CRAFTY PROSPECTOR)
3  WHITEROSE JEWEL Mar04 Feb04 Nov25 Sep26 Sep10 (cravens ii)DIAZ RENE 124 3.00 38% 1.60    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of FINN'S JEWEL by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
4  HUMOR ME PLEASE Mar31 Mar22 Mar09 Jan20 Dec23 (govea cesar)BARANDELA SOFIA 113 20.00    
  (by LEA out of UNDISTORTED by DISTORTED HUMOR)
5  RAIL TOWN Mar24 Feb12 Jul24     (ashf)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 118 6.00 ★    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of CHARMING BECKY by DIXIE UNION)
6  UPTOWN BIGBADJON Mar24 Mar04 Aug19 Jul10 Jun18 (padilla car)HAMILTON WESTON 124 12.00    
  (by STREET MAGICIAN out of MERRIWEATHER by OPENING VERSE)
7  BIG WAVE JAMES Mar04 Feb17 Sep01 Jul23 Jun18 (eoff terr)RODRIGUEZ ANARDIS 124 6.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of SUZY MALIBU by MALIBU MOON)
8  GOLD BARON Mar04 Feb10       (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 124 2.50 22% 3.50    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of FIFTYSHADESOFGOLD by MY GOLDEN SONG)
9  TOP COP Mar24 Mar04       (willis )GONCALVES R 124 10.00    
  (by UNIFIED out of TOP SPIN by STREET CRY (IRE))
10  BENISSIMO Feb19 Jan13 Nov12 Sep30 Sep10 (keithan ra)ERAMIA E 124 5.00 ★    
  (by PIONEEROF THE NILE out of ROMANTICISM by GONE WEST)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.