Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Tampa Bay Downs
Sunday - April 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TAM-1   WIN (6/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/1)-(6/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/1)-(6/5/1)-(6/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/1)-(2/7/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/5/1)-(2/7/4/3)-(5/2/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TAM-2   WIN (2/7/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/4/3)-(2/7/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/7/4/3)-(2/7/4/3)-(2/7/4/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/7/4/3)-(5/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/7/4/3)-(5/2/1)-(6/3/8/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-3   WIN (5/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/1)-(5/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/1)-(5/2/1)-(5/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/1)-(6/3/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/2/1)-(6/3/8/1)-(8/4/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TAM-4   WIN (6/3/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/3/8/1)-(6/3/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/3/8/1)-(6/3/8/1)-(6/3/8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/3/8/1)-(8/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/3/8/1)-(8/4/6)-(1/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
TAM-5   WIN (8/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/4/6)-(8/4/6/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/6)-(8/4/6/2/5)-(8/4/6/2/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (8/4/6)-(1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (8/4/6)-(1/7)-(8/2/7/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
TAM-6   WIN (1/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/7)-(1/7) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/7)-(8/2/7/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
TAM-7   WIN (8/2/7/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/2/7/1)-(8/2/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/2/7/1)-(8/2/7/1)-(8/2/7/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
TAM-8   WIN NO BET 0 $2.00 $0.00 
    EXA NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TAM-1   04/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($13.5K) 4UP M/F PT-12:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAKESTWOTOWIGGLE Apr02 Feb26 Feb12 Jan28 Dec24 (richards r)MITCHELL RICHARD 122 6.00 12% 7.30    
2  MOON ME AGAIN Oct07 Sep30 Aug31 Aug06 Jul16 (galvan baltaz)SANTOS ADEMAR 122 2.00    
3  JLO CAN DANCE Apr14 Apr02 Mar17 Feb10 Jan27 (poole jeffrey )CAMACHO SAMY 122 4.00    
4  CELESTIAL ORB Apr14 Sep02 Aug26 Aug05 Jul01 (march william)MARTIN MATTIE 115 12.00    
5  LYRICAL Apr14 Apr02 Mar19 Mar05 Feb12 (rarick lynn)SOSA LAUREANO 115 4.00 18% 4.70    
6  BAYOU MELODY Jan15 Dec10 Oct28 Oct05 Sep17 (o'con)DIAZ RAFAEL 122 2.50 28% 2.60    
 
TAM-2   04/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($14K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DELTA RED Apr12 Feb04 Jan26 Jan06 Dec22 (lorito mario)JIMENEZ MANNY 123 10.00    
2  PEARLINTHEROUGH Apr07 Mar05 Aug14 Jul22 Jul01 (hernandez sandin)FERRER C 123 2.00 31% 2.30    
3  HIGH ARABIAN Apr12 Mar25 Mar10 Aug31 Aug10 (escobar aliso)ALICEA JEREMY 116 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  LADYNESS Apr12 Mar19 Mar01 Jan18 Jan01 (arriagada jua)SANTOS ADEMAR 118 5.00 14% 5.90    
5  COUNTLESS DREAMS Dec14 Nov18 Sep17 Aug05 Jul22 (o'connell kat)SOSA LAUREANO 116 3.00    
6  NICOLINO Apr12 Mar19 Jul03 Jun10 Apr29 (rigattieri john)CENTENO E 125 4.00    
7  WIN OR CELLAR Apr12 Mar05 Feb18 Jan27 Dec24 (richards renal)CAMACHO SAMY 123 8.00 24% 3.10    
 
TAM-3   04/30/2023 5400ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($15.35K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLORS Apr16 Apr01 Mar12 Feb22 Jan22 (lusk r)FUENTES MARIO 124 4.00 19% 4.30    
2  LEOPARDI Apr16 Mar19 Mar03 Jan13 Dec01 (guciardo kathy)CAMACHO SAMY 124 2.00 23% 3.30    
3  TAPINTOYOURBEER Apr23 Apr16 Apr07 Mar24 Mar03 (ubide max)ARROYO S 124 8.00    
4  CALZONE Apr16 Apr07 Mar19 Mar03 Feb12 (rarick lynn)SOSA LAUREANO 117 5.00    
5  GARMENTO Feb16 Jan05 Oct16     (sanchez amad)MENESES MARCOS 124 1.60 29% 2.40    
6  SHIPWRECK Mar03 Feb01 Dec31 Dec02 Oct02 (knoll d)ALLEN D 124 20.00    
 
TAM-4   04/30/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($22.5K) 3 ALL PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CESAR Apr01 Mar19 Feb26 Feb05 Jan20 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 118 8.00 5% 17.40    
SCR  MINELLA Apr14 Mar12 Mar02 Jan11   (sanchez amad)MENESES MARCOS 118 1.60    
3  GODS GLORY Apr08 Mar19 Feb26 Jan20 Jan13 (bennett gerald)CAMACHO SAMY 118 3.50 21% 3.70    
SCR  THIRD MOON Apr08 Mar26 Feb22 Dec03 Oct28 (poole a)FERRER C 118 12.00    
SCR  IMAGOODFELLA Apr08 Jan20 Dec28 Nov25 Oct07 (russo j)LOPEZ E 118 12.00    
6  COPAZO Mar25 Mar04 Feb03 Jan11 Dec03 (ochoa gerard)ARROYO S 118 4.00 44% 1.30    
7  COCO SHELL Apr08 Jan20 Dec28 Dec03 Oct20 (dini mike)CENTENO E 118 12.00    
8  GO GREEN Apr08 Feb26 Jan27 Jan08 Dec09 (o'connell kat)SOSA LAUREANO 111 8.00 6% 16.80    
 
TAM-5   04/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($17K) 3 ALL PT- 2:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLD FOR MY LADY         (mckathan k)ALONSO LUIS 115 12.00    
2  FAVORITE LIGHT         (rhone berne)QUINONEZ ALONSO 120 8.00 ★    
3  GRAND SLAM BOY         (philipp karyn)SOSA LAUREANO 113 12.00    
4  NICO'S HAVING FUN May06         (o'connell kath)CAMACHO SAMY 120 2.50 28% 2.50    
5  SECOND WAVE         (kintz matthe)ALLEN D 120 8.00 ★    
6  TRIPP WILDCAT Aug25         (rarick lynn)DELGADO DAVID 120 10.00 17% 5.00    
7  PRINCE GHOST Jan11 Nov30       (o'con)DIAZ RAFAEL 120 3.50    
8  BIG BUCKSALOT Apr16 Mar12 Feb26     (gatis chris)FERRER C 120 4.50 32% 2.10    
9  INSTIGATING Apr14 Feb24       (spanabel kell)ALICEA JEREMY 113 30.00    
10  TIZ A TALE Apr12         (holtzinger)MITCHELL RICHARD 120 10.00    
 
TAM-6   04/30/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($32K) Purse ($18.5K) 3 F PT- 3:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY JUNE BUG         (rodriguez dari)CAMACHO SAMY 120 5.00 48% 1.10    
2  MOST DIVINE Apr12 Mar24 Feb25 Feb08   (bowersock ma)GARCIA GEOVANY 120 20.00    
3  MIRANDA'S ROCKY Feb02 Jan08       (orseno joseph)JIMENEZ MANNY 120 2.50    
SCR  RISKY TIZZY Apr12 Mar04       (munoz carlos)ARROYO S 120 2.00 9% 9.90    
5  BRITTY Jan11 Oct01 Sep11     (cascallares n)ALICEA JEREMY 113 30.00    
SCR  VERIFIABLE Mar24 Feb12       (manning denni)MARTIN MATTIE 113 8.00 ★    
7  BELLA FACCIA Mar24 Mar11 Feb11     (ciaio charle)MENESES MARCOS 120 3.50 13% 6.70    
8  MOONSHINING Apr01         (mcgoe)DIAZ RAFAEL 120 12.00    
 
TAM-7   04/30/2023 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($32K) 3 ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THE GREAT CESAR         (barboza vict)MENESES MARCOS 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of ALINEA by HARD SPUN)
2  SOPHIA'S PRINCE Apr12 Mar15 Oct17     (hamm timothy)SOSA LAUREANO 113 1.60 25% 3.00    
  (by OXBOW out of MISS HISSY FIT by ALDEBARAN)
3  VALDOSTA         (mckathan kevin)DIAZ S 120 12.00    
  (by CURLIN out of PRETTY N COOL by SCAT DADDY)
4  KING SHARK         (king cl)GONZALEZ LUIS 120 15.00    
  (by MAJESTIC CITY out of LETSHOOTPOOL by FREUD)
5  CITY HUMOR Apr12 Mar11 Feb24 Feb04 Jan14 (ochoa gerard)ARROYO S 120 6.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of CITY SUCCESS by CITY ZIP)
6  MOTIVO         (garcia rodolf)MARTIN MATTIE 113 10.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of SUPPLEMENT by SKY MESA)
7  SIR ROBERT HALL Apr14 Mar31       (o'connell kathle)FERRER C 120 8.00 18% 4.60    
  (by LORD NELSON out of WEEKEND ROMANCE by KEY RECOGNITION)
8  BOLD ADVANCE Apr14         (o'connell kath)CAMACHO SAMY 120 3.00 29% 2.50    
  (by ACCELERATE out of BOLD EMBRACE by GRAEME HALL)
 
TAM-8   04/30/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($13K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STEEL HAWK Dec09 Nov17 Oct01     (cesare willia)SOSA LAUREANO 111 15.00    
2  FEUILLETON         (chain pea)RODRIGUEZ A 126 3.00    
3  FOREVER SAUCY Apr14 Mar08 Feb15 Feb05 Jan13 (ochoa gerard)DELGADO DAVID 118 15.00    
4  KALINBA Apr22 Apr08 Mar12 Feb26 Feb15 (cascallares )MENESES MARCOS 126 4.50    
SCR  PAT'SSEWINGMACHINE         (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 126 6.00 14% 6.00    
6  THE POINT ROAD Apr05 Mar24 Mar05 Feb22 Feb12 (chavez a)VILLA-GOMEZ H 126 2.50 ★    
7  RED JET Apr22 Apr05 Mar04 Feb12 Jan29 (barrett grant)FUENTES MARIO 126 12.00    
8  MY BIG DRAMA Apr15 Apr05 Mar10 Feb22 Feb12 (dobber arn)MITCHELL RICHARD 126 10.00    
SCR  MARSICO Mar18 Feb18 Jul01 Jun11 May30 (parra)DIAZ RAFAEL 126 20.00    
10  MIGHTY FROSTED Nov05 Oct22 Oct08 Sep02 Jul24 (barboza vi)SANCHEZ LEXANDER 124 12.00    
SCR  MAGIC WIZARD Apr19 Apr05 Dec23 Oct19 Oct06 (fennessy john)ALLEN M 126 4.00 12% 7.50    
SCR  SOUTHERN CIVILITY Mar24 Feb22 Jan11 Nov30 Oct08 (o'connell ka)ARROYO S 126 3.50    
SCR  TRUTH AND HONESTY         (hennessy j)MITCHELL RICHARD 126 12.00 7% 12.60    
SCR  TOYI Apr21 Mar23 Feb19 Jan15 Dec11 (hernandez sand)CAMACHO SAMY 126 2.00 44% 1.30    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.