Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Tuesday - September 20, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-1   09/20/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NOT NECESSARILY Sep12 Jul23 Jul08 Jun25 Jun09 (kulow mark)HAAR NATHAN 124 8.00 16% 5.40    
2  CLAIMJUMPER Sep04 Aug29 Aug15 Jul31 Jul03 (mitchell stetson)RAMOS B 124 2.50    
3  PERVASIVE Aug28 Jul25 Jul12 Jun17 Jun11 (muckey john)MARTIN A 124 4.50 ★    
4  FROGGY Aug23 Jul18 Jul05 Jun20 Jun07 (williams s)GONZALEZ V 124 20.00    
5  WHERE'S FREDDIE Sep06 Aug28 Jul26 Jul12 Jul04 (chavez juan)CARDOSO DAVID 121 10.00 15% 5.80    
SCR  GLASS EATER Sep13 Aug10 Jul09 Jun23   (bethke troy )BETHKE A 124 30.00 8% 10.90    
7  TAP A MIRACLE Aug28 Jul19 Jul05 Apr30 Apr23 (ness john)ROMERO M 124 15.00    
8  PRAIRIE SQUALL Aug22 Aug15 Jul31 Jul17 May06 (hibdon n)HERRERA HUGO 124 3.50 22% 3.60    
 
ARP-2   09/20/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($11.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMERICAN REALITY Aug30 Aug07 Jul17 Apr16 Apr02 (hibdon n)MCNEIL BRYAN 120 3.50 34% 1.90    
2  JUST LEAVE Sep04 Aug30 Aug09     (hibdon n)RAMOS B 124 2.50 ★    
3  FETCHING FURY Jul12 May28 May14 Apr08 Mar23 (williams stev)CARDOSO DAVID 124 10.00 ★    
5  RED BOTTOM REBEL Aug21 Aug01 Jul04 Jun25 Apr28 (martinez a)WALES T 124 4.50 35% 1.90    
SCR  STREETTALKINHOTTIE Jul12 Jun17 Jun12 Apr22 Mar04 ( )TBA null      
 
ARP-3   09/20/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($10.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIGHT BOUND BID Sep05 Aug23 Aug09 Jul26 Jun17 (muckey john)BETHKE A 124 4.50 ★    
SCR  PICKELJUICE Sep05 Aug09 Jul12 Jun18 May28 (burns dale)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 8.00 ★    
3  FERRARI ROAD Sep05 Jul11 Jun10 May30 May14 (muckey john)MARTIN A 124 15.00 ★    
4  OPTIMAL Aug23 Jul26 Jul18 Jul05 May01 (rushton templ)CARDOSO DAVID 124 2.50 25% 3.00    
5  BRAZILIAN SUMMER Aug22 Aug01 Jul03 May28 May01 (long vaughn)WALES T 124 3.50 51% 1.00    
 
ARP-4   09/20/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MORO CHARLIE Aug23 Jul19 Jun21 May24 May10 (rushton stacy)CARDOSO DAVID 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  ONOMATOPOEIA Aug29 Jul15 Jun27 Jun05 May16 (williams f)ROMERO M 124 8.00 ★    
3  MY TRUE REWARD Aug08 Jul25 Jun18 May29 May14 (young a)MARTIN A 124 15.00    
4  YOUNG PHILLIP Sep05 Aug01 Jul03 Jun10 May07 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 6.00 16% 5.30    
5  TIGER THE MAN Aug29 Aug02 Jul05 Jun10 May14 (roberts m)WALES T 124 4.50 29% 2.40    
6  PREACHER Aug30 Aug01 Jul05 May14 May01 (hibdon n)RAMOS B 124 2.50 26% 2.90    
7  RISKY BOY Sep11 Aug23 Aug02     (shephard john)HERRERA HUGO 124 3.50    
 
ARP-5   09/20/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($9.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAPPIN' THE BLING Sep04 Aug09 Jul03 May19 May01 (mitchell stetson)WALES T 120 4.50 ★    
SCR  LET IT RIP Aug22 Jul12 Jun17     (luark jennifer)LUARK T 124 12.00    
3  BIG LARRY Sep05 Aug22 Apr18 Mar23 Feb10 (martinez a)HAAR NATHAN 124 8.00 16% 5.20    
4  BUMPER POOL Aug22 Jul31 Jul12 Jun10 May07 (ibanez alb)GONZALEZ V 120 20.00 9% 10.30    
5  PARABELLUM Sep13 Aug29 Jul19 Jul12 Jun28 (williams stev)CARDOSO DAVID 124 15.00    
6  KEARNEY Sep06 Aug29 Aug08 Jul03 May08 (long vaughn)RAMOS B 120 2.50 26% 2.90    
7  GUN WAR Sep05 Aug15 Jul25 Jul13 Jun19 (dieter dalto)BETHKE A 124 3.50 18% 4.40    
 
ARP-6   09/20/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KNIGHTED Sep06 Aug29 Aug09 Aug01 Jul09 (hibdon n)HERRERA HUGO 120 2.50 30% 2.30    
2  LINCHTOWN Jul03 Jun18 Jun03 May15   (esquibel mar)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  DOX BIZ Sep05 Aug30 Jul24 Jun27 Jun03 (dieter dalton)HAAR NATHAN 120 8.00    
4  ROYAL OUTLAW Aug29 Aug09 Jul19 May13 Apr30 (anderson c)RAMOS B 120 4.50    
5  ALL RISE UP Sep04 Aug15 Jul31 Jul25 Jul05 (chavez juan)MARTIN A 120 3.50 ★    
6  ARCH'S WILD Sep04 Aug09 Jul31 Jun12 May28 (mcdonald willi)LUARK T 124 10.00    
7  SHKEURTAILFEATHERS Sep13 Aug09 Jul19 Jul05   (pokorny foster)LOPEZ P 124 15.00    
SCR  LONESTAR CHROME Sep04 Jul18 Jul11 Jun06 May14 (williams f)ROMERO M 124 20.00    
9  CRUZ'N OLLIE Aug29 Aug08 Jul26 Jul12   (gerke cimmaron)WALES T 124 2.50 38% 1.60    
10  CLEARLY MAD Sep06 Aug22 Jul30 Jun25 Jun10 (rushton stacy)CARDOSO DAVID 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
ARP-7   09/20/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($18.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOLD TIGHT Sep05 Aug15 Jul19 Jun11 Apr30 (mitchell stets)HERRERA HUGO 124 4.50 ★    
2  MAIUS Sep05 Aug15 Jul19 Jul04   (martinez a)WALES T 121 3.50 25% 3.10    
3  AUTOPILOT Sep06 Aug21 Aug01 Jul05 May28 (martinez a)HAAR NATHAN 124 8.00    
4  VERRAZANO FIRST Aug21 Jul24 Jul04 Jun11 May23 (mitchell ste)MARTIN A 124 15.00 16% 5.20    
5  TUFF WILLY TE Sep04 Aug23 Jul19 Jul04   (parsons riley)RAMOS B 121 2.50    
6  STEPHEN'S ANSWER Aug21 Aug15 Jul19 Apr30 Apr09 (mitchell stets)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 6.00 35% 1.80    
7  COWBOY DON Sep06 Aug30 Jul11 Jun10 May21 (mcdonald will)CARDOSO DAVID 124 10.00 ★    
 
ARP-8   09/20/2022 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($10.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  APRILINTHEPINES Aug28 Jul25 Jul11 Jan13   (martinez a)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 3.50 ★    
2  GARNETS GAL Sep06 Aug22 Aug09 Jul25 Jul11 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 124 12.00    
3  D L'S GIRL Sep11 Aug30 Jul26 Jul11 May14 (hibdon n)HERRERA HUGO 124 2.50 37% 1.70    
4  GIGGLES AND SMOKE Sep06 Jun18       (muckey john)RAMOS B 124 4.50 30% 2.40    
5  BIND ME UP Sep12 Sep04 Aug22 Aug09 Jul25 (ibanez alb)GONZALEZ V 124 15.00 ★    
6  FLAN Sep06 Jul25 Jul11 Jun07 Apr29 (ness john)ROMERO M 124 10.00 8% 11.60    
7  CALL THE SHOTS Aug29 Jul30 Jun24 Jun12 May21 (rushton stacy)WALES T 124 6.00    
8  T. P. RIGHT LANE Sep06 Aug22 Aug08 Jul19 Jul04 (rushton templ)CARDOSO DAVID 124 8.00    
 
ARP-9   09/20/2022 5610ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($31.75K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BLUE MOUNTAIN BELL Sep04 Aug22 Aug01 Jul03   (vicchrilli r)BETHKE A 124 3.50 30% 2.30    
SCR  ITSALLINTHENOTES Aug22 Jul31 Jun11 Jun05 Apr24 (julius tom)HAAR NATHAN 124 10.00    
3  GOODNIGHTLOVING Sep13 Aug30 Jul25 Jul11 Jun26 (hibdon n)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 12.00 8% 11.80    
4  STUNTING Aug30 Jul31 Jul19 Apr16 Mar05 (rushton templ)CARDOSO DAVID 124 6.00 ★    
5  HIGHTAILING Aug22 Jul31 Jul19 Jun26 Jun18 (hibdon n)HERRERA HUGO 124 4.50    
6  CELEE'S LAST TE Sep04 Aug22 Jul31 Jul03   (vicchrilli russell)WALES T 124 2.50 18% 4.40    
7  FIRST ALTERNATE Sep04 Aug22 Jul31 Jul11 May07 (mitchell stetson)RAMOS B 124 8.00 14% 6.10    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.