Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - July 31, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/31/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNCLE NICK Jul03 Jun18       (vaccarezza ca)PENA JONUELLE 114 10.00    
1A  T MONEY Jul24 Jun18       (vaccarezza car)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 10.00    
2  SING ME AN ALIBI         (house gary)ELLIOTT JANE 124 15.00 7% 13.90    
3  CIRCLE THE KID         (demeritte)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00 6% 16.50    
4  STRICKLAND Mar19         (brennan terry)MILLER CHASE 118 15.00 7% 13.90    
5  BRUCE ON THE LOOSE Jul08 Jun19 May10 Apr20   (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00    
6  MR. MARIAH Jul15         (pittman bon)PETERSON FERRIN 118 12.00    
7  ARTIE AND JESSIE Jul08         (horvath k)HOLMES GAGE 117 20.00    
8  KEEP ON Jul08 May13 Apr30     (williamson b)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 8.00    
9  SOUTHERN SENSE Jun29 Jun05 Apr20 Feb26 Jan16 (mcgee paul)DIAZ RENE 113 4.50 ★    
10  FRISCO LINE Feb12 Jan02       (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 1.60 60% 0.70    
SCR  CONCOCTION Jul19 Jul02 Jun18 May28 Apr30 (schlenk k)ORTIZ ALVIN 118 15.00    
12  INDIAN SPRINGS Jul16         (campbell do)PETERSON FERRIN 124 15.00    
 
ELP-2   07/31/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33K) 2 F PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KENTUCKY REIGN         (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00 ★    
2  NEED SOME MONEY         (hamilton sa)PETERSON FERRIN 119 10.00    
3  LITURGIA Jun29 Jun02       (hernandez r)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 3.50 64% 0.60    
4  CHIQUITA MOSCA Jul04 Jun19 May26     (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 3.00 ★    
5  BIG DIG         (drury thom)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00    
6  LADAN Jun29         (bogle fergus)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 6% 14.70    
7  GATHERING STORM (SAF)         (cox h)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 8% 11.90    
SCR  LUCKY PHOENIX         (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
9  INQUIETA         (gut)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 12.00    
 
ELP-3   07/31/2022 3630ft TURF RC0 YIELDING Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  JUST PUSH SEND Jul10         (asmussen ste)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 6.00 ★    
2  MY MY MUNNY Jul17 Jul03 Jun17 Jun09 May23 (stuart shea)EMIGH A 122 10.00    
3  SHANNON Apr22         (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 2.50 54% 0.90    
4  HEY KITTEN Jun11         (brisset rodo)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 5.00 7% 13.10    
5  ELEGANT JOY         (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 8.00    
6  DEVINE CHARGER Jul09 May14 Apr10 Feb23 Jan15 (blair jord)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.00 16% 5.20    
7  SHES BOUT A MOVER Jul09 Feb06 Jan16     (walsh p)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 ★    
 
ELP-4   07/31/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 MUDDY Optional Claiming ($20K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FIRERY TALE Jul17 Jun26 Jun10 May27 Apr16 (diodoro roberti)COHEN DAVID 123 8.00 ★    
SCR  MY MAN FLINTSTONE Jul15 Jun25 Jun08 May22   (hern)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  DAVID'S GEM Jul01 Jun22 May22 May05 Mar31 (cano juan )HERNANDEZ J 123 10.00    
4  CYRIL'S BOY Jul08 Jun17 May27 May06   (poulos dee)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 6.00 12% 7.50    
5  THIRSTY BETRAYAL Jul08 Jun18 May27 Apr14 Mar10 (shirer a)TALAMO JOSEPH 125 2.00 ★    
6  ONE FOR RICHIE Jul06 Jun11 Apr27 Mar05 Feb21 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 1.40 61% 0.60    
7  CAN IMAGINE May27 Apr29 Apr10 Mar27 Mar04 (bre)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 123 10.00    
 
ELP-5   07/31/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST SAY SO         (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 119 5.00    
2  GIRL NAMED CHARLIE         (amoss tho)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 27% 2.70    
3  COLLECTED GLORY Jul01         (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
SCR  PIGEON CAY         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  DREAMS OF YOU         (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ONE STORMY LADY Apr29 Apr10       (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
7  ROJA LIGERA Jul01         (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50    
8  CATCHA LATER MO Apr21         (hancock dana)ELLIOTT JANE 119 12.00    
9  CHANEL POINT         (catalano w)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 6.00    
10  LADY EVELYN CAN Jul09 Apr21       (hancock jac)PETERSON FERRIN 119 10.00    
11  JEFF'S JOY         (hughes byro)PETERSON FERRIN 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
12  FABULOSITY         (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
SCR  SURE ENOUGH         (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 6.00    
SCR  CHARACTER COUNTS         (ortiz alex)HOLMES GAGE 112 4.00 28% 2.60    
 
ELP-6   07/31/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REDEMPTION TIME         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
2  GUNOE Jan22         (lobo h)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.50 16% 5.30    
3  SLIM MAN Mar13 Jan29       (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.50 9% 9.70    
4  STAR ENTERTAINER         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00 ★    
5  RAMPATIOUS Apr29         (o'n)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 15.00    
SCR  SUPREMELY Jun09 May22       (foley greg)GRAHAM J 119 20.00    
7  SKELLY         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
8  ORO DE MORO MORO         (morey e)DIAZ RENE 114 12.00    
9  ANARCHIST Jul03 Apr24 Mar27     (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 119 20.00    
10  TRIPLE OPTION         (medina robert)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
11  BOURBON HEIST Jun05 May07 Apr09 Feb26 Jan29 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 3.00 53% 0.90    
12  GOLDEN LUNA Jun19 May22       (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00 ★    
SCR  WORDS OF WISDOM Jul16 May15 Apr08 Feb26 Jan22 (york keith)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00    
 
ELP-7   07/31/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MUSTANG LADY         (newton troy)DIAZ RENE 114 20.00    
2  PERFECT ROSE         (vasquez german )LANERIE J 119 30.00    
3  BOGEY FREE         (lauer michael)GRAHAM J 119 20.00    
4  FLOWERDEW         (margolis )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
5  THREE SPORT COATS         (hancock joh)PETERSON FERRIN 119 10.00    
6  MORIARTY Jun26         (bogle fergus)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
7  SPARKLING ROSE Jul01         (sharp joe)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 3.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  WILD ACCLAIM         (hamilton sarah)MOJICA JR 119 6.00 ★    
9  SECRETS GALORE         (casse mark)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 4.00 13% 6.80    
SCR  BRISBANE ROAD Jul04         (amoss tho)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 ★    
11  SAVE YOUR TEARS         (diodoro roberti)COHEN DAVID 119 10.00    
SCR  ADALINDA Jul09         (short thomas)WISEMAN ISAIAH 119 2.50 64% 0.60    
SCR  TOTAL SMOKESHOW         (calvo kelsie)AYALA ISAIAS 119 20.00    
SCR  AMAZON BARBIE         (catalano w)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
 
ELP-8   07/31/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 GOOD Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHELL SHOCK Jul03 Apr22       (vaccarezza ca)GARCIA MARTIN 122 6.00 ★    
2  STELLAR GRACE Jun23 May12 Apr10 Feb17   (shirer a)GILLIGAN JACK 122 4.00    
3  WINGS OF AN ANGEL Jul15 Jun17 May21 May05 Mar06 (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 2.50 21% 3.70    
4  CANCEL THIS Jun18 May28 Apr02 Mar10 Feb06 (romans dale)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 4.50 15% 5.80    
5  OFF WE GO Jul20 Jun24 Jun08 May12 Apr22 (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 117 3.00 14% 5.90    
6  FABRICATE Jun29 May21 Apr24 Mar06 Jan20 (cano juan )HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00 17% 4.70    
7  AVENIDA MANANA Jul23 Jun27 Jun14 Jun12 Jun07 (larue steve)EMIGH A 122 25.00    
 
ELP-9   07/31/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 5:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CATHERINE BLAZE Jul15 Jul04 Jun17 May26   (leonard george )HOLMES GAGE 112 20.00    
SCR  GRAY FROST         (reed r)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  COTTON CANDY ANNIE Jun29 Jun08       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 26% 2.90    
4  SOUTHLAWN Jun03         (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 2.50 25% 3.00    
SCR  BOLTORO Jul04         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 6.00    
6  BLAME IT ON PARIS         (brisset rodo)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 8.00    
7  OH POLLYANNA         (shirer a)GILLIGAN JACK 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BOUDICA         (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 119 10.00    
9  DIAMOND DISTRICT Jul01         (wilkes r)LANERIE J 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  AHA MOMENT         (casse mark)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00    
SCR  DON'T GO CHANGING         (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.