Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Tampa Bay Downs
Friday - February 14, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TAM-1   WIN (6/8/9/4/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/8/9/4/7)-(6/8/9/4/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/8/9/4/7)-(6/8/9/4/7)-(6/8/9/4/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/8/9/4/7)-(6/7/4/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/8/9/4/7)-(6/7/4/8)-(6/2/4/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
TAM-2   WIN (6/7/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/7/4/8)-(6/7/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/7/4/8)-(6/7/4/8)-(6/7/4/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/7/4/8)-(6/2/4/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/7/4/8)-(6/2/4/3)-(1/2/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-3   WIN (6/2/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/4/3)-(6/2/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/4/3)-(6/2/4/3)-(6/2/4/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/4/3)-(1/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/2/4/3)-(1/2/5)-(2/5/1/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-4   WIN (1/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/5)-(1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/5)-(2/5/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2/5)-(2/5/1/7)-(5/2/3/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-5   WIN (2/5/1/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/1/7)-(2/5/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/1/7)-(2/5/1/7)-(2/5/1/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/1/7)-(5/2/3/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/5/1/7)-(5/2/3/4)-(2/8/3/11/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
TAM-6   WIN (5/2/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/2/3/4)-(5/2/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/2/3/4)-(5/2/3/4)-(5/2/3/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/2/3/4)-(2/8/3/11/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/2/3/4)-(2/8/3/11/5)-(4/5/1/2/10) 100 $1.00 $100 
TAM-7   WIN (2/8/3/11/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/8/3/11/5)-(2/8/3/11/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/8/3/11/5)-(2/8/3/11/5)-(2/8/3/11/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/8/3/11/5)-(4/5/1/2/10) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (2/8/3/11/5)-(4/5/1/2/10)-(1/5/10/4/8) 125 $1.00 $125 
TAM-8   WIN (4/5/1/2/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/5/1/2/10)-(4/5/1/2/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/5/1/2/10)-(4/5/1/2/10)-(4/5/1/2/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/5/1/2/10)-(1/5/10/4/8) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
TAM-9   WIN (1/5/10/4/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/5/10/4/8)-(1/5/10/4/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/5/10/4/8)-(1/5/10/4/8)-(1/5/10/4/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TAM-1   02/14/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($18K) 4UP M/F PT-12:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIPHARAH Jan22 Dec21 Nov23 Nov02 Jan31 (lusk brian)MARAGH CHRISTIAN 108 30.00    
2  ALMA PURA Feb01 Jan05 Dec18 Nov30 Oct13 (agostini a)FUKUMOTO DAISUKE 118 30.00    
3  THANK THE ACADEMY Jan22 Jan05 Dec21 Nov29 Oct19 (agostini arthu)MARIN SAMUEL 118 6.00    
4  TIZ ERIN Oct19 Sep01 Aug04 Jul21 Jun23 (canegata james)FELICIANO R 118 4.50 15% 5.90    
5  CAPTIVATING SOUND Jan26 Jan15 Jan05 Dec13 Oct06 (torre)DIAZ RAFAEL 118 6.00    
6  CHANGE ORDER Feb01 Jan15 Jan01 Dec13 Nov27 (hernandez enr)IORIO MELISSA 118 3.50 24% 3.10    
7  MYA C Feb01 Jan15 Dec24 Dec11 Oct04 (hardesty lesliel)FERRER C 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
8  GHOZ ON May04 Apr14 Mar24 Feb29 Feb14 (dominguez hu)CASIQUE UBARDO 118 8.00 23% 3.30    
9  CALMING SEA Jan29 Dec19 Nov30 Nov09 Oct18 (breen ke)GALLARDO A 118 6.00 17% 4.90    
SCR  JENAS MERCY Feb02 Dec20 Nov10 Oct19 Sep20 (rigattier)MALDONADO GABRIEL 122 3.00    
 
TAM-2   02/14/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($18.5K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LITIGANT Jan31 Jan15 Jan01 Dec13 Nov20 (ochoa gerard)MARIN SAMUEL 120 6.00    
2  AWESOME PRINCE Jan31 Jan08 Jan01 Dec11 Oct11 (torres pa)MALDONADO GABRIEL 122 3.00    
3  MEAN TWEETS Jan31 Jan17 Jan01 Dec18 Nov27 (posadas pedro)HESS SARA 113 30.00    
4  COURT CONTENDER Dec27 Nov20 Sep20 Sep04 Aug28 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 120 3.00 19% 4.20    
5  SAHM TEQUILA Jan31 Jan17 Dec27 Nov12 Sep24 (mendieta )RODRIGUEZ ANTHONY 120 20.00    
6  AUGER Feb01 Jan15 Nov12 Oct23 Oct08 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 122 2.50 25% 3.00    
7  ZATIP Dec29 Dec04 Oct10 Aug03 Jul13 (gonzalez aldana)BUSH V 120 4.00 23% 3.40    
8  NUTSIE Dec27 Dec11 Nov11 Sep30 Sep11 (ferraro anthon)LEON SONNY 120 20.00 8% 11.70    
 
TAM-3   02/14/2025 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($53K) 3 F PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FONDLY         (motion graha)MARIN SAMUEL 120 6.00    
  (by UPSTART out of LIFETIME MEMORY by ISTAN)
2  MEURSAULT         (brown ch)GALLARDO A 120 1.60 27% 2.70    
  (by TAPIT out of LASY W by WAR FRONT)
3  RED HOT CATALINA         (o'connell kath)EVANS CECILY 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of SUCH A LIL LADY by POSEIDON'S WARRIOR)
4  SUNSET EXPRESS Jan11         (campbell joel)LEON SONNY 120 20.00 19% 4.40    
  (by KHOZAN out of JELLY CABLE by SKY MESA)
5  SMOOTHLY         (harty eoin)CASTANON L 120 10.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of VIA STRATA by STREET CRY (IRE))
6  CEASE FIRE (IRE) Jan11         (clement chris)MORALES PABLO 120 3.00 32% 2.10    
  (by WAR FRONT out of WELCOMING by TAPIT)
7  HEY COOKIE         (o'con)DIAZ RAFAEL 120 12.00    
  (by CAJUN BREEZE out of CATIE'S LEGACY by KHOZAN)
8  CRAWFORD         (mott i)CENTENO E 120 3.50    
  (by MCKINZIE out of TAPPED by TAPIT)
 
TAM-4   02/14/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($20K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPUNFORFUN Jan26 Jan01 Dec22 Dec04 Oct10 (avila carlo)FERRER C 120 2.50 37% 1.70    
2  SANDPIPER MEMORIES Jan26 Jan12 Dec22 Dec11 Nov30 (carrascojr v)MENESES MARCOS 118 1.60 30% 2.30    
SCR  SHE'S A JOY Jan19 Jan08 Nov30 Nov22 Aug18 (ag)LUNA PAUL 118 10.00    
4  HOLIDAY JAZZ Feb02 Jan15 Nov06 Sep24 Sep09 (breed ron)RODRIGUEZ ANTHONY 118 10.00    
5  SOLAIR Dec28 Nov30 Oct22 Sep30 Sep11 (allen lisa)ALLEN M 118 12.00 8% 12.30    
6  BAND SWEETHEART Jan19 Dec20 Sep28 Aug14 Jun19 (cudworth pau)BATISTA A 118 12.00    
7  MISTY GALE Nov26 Oct07 Sep10 Aug07 Jul22 (falk jacqueli)IORIO MELISSA 118 20.00    
SCR  RED ELEANOR Jan24 Jan15 Dec07 Nov23 Oct24 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 118 4.00    
 
TAM-5   02/14/2025 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($54.5K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOUDER THAN WORDS Jan03 Oct15 Oct02 Sep05 Aug21 (granitz anth)MENESES MARCOS 118 6.00 17% 4.80    
2  DAMASO Jan03 Dec18 Aug31 Aug17 Jul04 (o'connell kathl)CENTENO E 118 1.50 29% 2.40    
3  NO WAY IT'S TODAY (GB) Oct26 Sep15 Jul01 Jun09 Mar22 (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 118 20.00    
4  RED WREN Jan29 Jul08 Jun11 May27 Apr21 (rice k)ALMEDINA MARIANGELYS 111 30.00    
5  DREAM CONCERT Jan11 Dec14 Nov24 Oct19 Sep20 (o'connel)GALLARDO A 118 3.00 24% 3.10    
6  SHE'S FIRE Oct18 Sep20 Aug04 Jul08 Jun25 (rice kev)RODRIGUEZ O 118 8.00    
7  SENSITIVITY Jan03 Jun28 Jun02 May04 Nov25 (d'angelo jose )GIL CIPRIANO 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  CHICK'S SHADOW Dec29 Nov17 Sep21 Aug17 Jun22 (rodriguez ange)MARIN SAMUEL 118 4.50    
 
TAM-6   02/14/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($23K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEST PILOT Apr05 Mar08 Jan24 May25 May13 (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 118 6.00    
2  VOLKERT Feb01 Jan25 Jan05 Dec18 Dec01 (aguayo ramon)FERRER C 118 1.60 25% 3.00    
3  BAR DOWN EXPRESS Feb01 Jan22 Dec27 Dec11 Nov20 (carmichael)MARAGH CHRISTIAN 108 4.50 14% 6.40    
4  NEWYEARSBLOCKPARTY Jan22 Jan04 Nov05 Sep30 Aug27 (cahill steve)MENESES MARCOS 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  COURT AND SPARK Jan31 Jan15 Jan05 Dec11 Oct22 (simone mic)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 118 2.00 38% 1.70    
6  POMPOUS PRINCE Jan22 Jan03 Nov29 Nov13 Nov01 (ferraro anth)CASTANON L 118 10.00    
7  GRIMES Feb01 Jan15 Dec24 Nov27 Nov10 (spanabel r)HESS SARA 111 15.00    
 
TAM-7   02/14/2025 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($20K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOTTAKEJAKE Jan31 Oct28 Oct14 May17   (breed ronald )IORIO MELISSA 122 30.00    
2  TRIUMPHANT ROAD Dec22 Aug02 Jun21 Jun02 May19 (joseph saffie )GIL CIPRIANO 122 1.20 42% 1.40    
3  DIFFUSION         (dini mike)LEON SONNY 122 10.00 7% 12.70    
SCR  OCALA ROCKET Feb07 Jan01 Dec01 Aug02 Jul06 (delgado jo)URDANETA J 122 3.00    
5  SKYLER'S ARTEMIS Oct03 Sep16 Jul23 Jul01 Jun10 (ferraro anth)MARIN SAMUEL 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  THEREGOESMYMIRACLE Jan17 Dec27 Dec06 Oct12 Sep26 (paragallo)MALDONADO GABRIEL 122 20.00    
7  LATIN FORCE Jan17 Dec27 Dec06 Sep28 Sep07 (vanwinkle d)QUINONEZ ALONSO 122 15.00    
8  GRAND PARK VIEW Jan10 Dec27 Dec14 Nov30 Nov09 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 122 10.00 30% 2.30    
9  FROZEN FOUR Jan25 Jan17 Dec27 Dec06 Nov29 (barron r)GALLARDO A 122 5.00    
10  HEAT LIGHTNING Apr05 Mar02 Feb10 Jan13   (perez blas)CASTANON L 122 20.00    
11  ETERNAL GLORY Feb07 Jan19 Dec29 Dec22 May25 (contessa g)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  WE GOT THIS Dec11 Nov01 Oct10 Sep20 Aug29 (curto beverl)GONZALEZ CESAR 115 15.00    
SCR  MITHRIDATES Jan22 Dec22 Dec11 Nov20 Oct30 (de)LUNA PAUL 122 15.00    
SCR  ASAASY Jan19 Dec06 Nov29 Nov17 Oct18 (dini mike)MARIN SAMUEL 122 12.00    
 
TAM-8   02/14/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($32K) Purse ($54K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BARBSDREAMCOMETRUE Sep14 Aug05 Jun22 Jun08 May11 (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  AWESOME PIC Jan31 May03 Apr03 Feb03 Jan13 (smith g)CENTENO E 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  WHEELINGNDEALING Jan31 Jan19 Dec20 Sep30 Sep11 (mendieta alej)IORIO MELISSA 119 20.00    
4  HOPESNDREAMS Jan31 Jan10 Dec24 Oct03 Sep05 (dini mike)CASTANON L 119 3.00 40% 1.50    
5  HAPPY BELLA Jan12 Oct25 Sep20 Sep01   (crichton rohan)LEON SONNY 123 6.00 30% 2.30    
6  SEA ART Dec29 Dec04 Oct16 Aug22 Jul11 (carrascojr vi)MORALES PABLO 119 4.00    
7  IMMORTALLOVE Jan31 Dec06 Oct09 Jul31 Jul08 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 121 6.00    
8  TATOR MADE Jan18 Aug30 Aug02 Jul14 Jun23 (cascallares )MENESES MARCOS 119 30.00    
9  KANT RESIST IT Jan22 Dec23 Nov10 Aug25 Aug13 (arnett g)TOHILL S 119 10.00    
10  ATHENA'S WISDOM Jan12 Dec06 Aug03 May04 Apr03 (cahill f)BUSH V 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  PRETTY'N AWESOME Jan18 Dec04 Oct06 Sep20 Aug25 (bennett ge)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 119 5.00    
 
TAM-9   02/14/2025 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($21K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ERA Dec18 Dec04 Sep14 Aug28 Aug15 (ward dennis)FERRER C 120 3.00 37% 1.70    
2  DELIGHTFUL DIXIE Jan25 Dec19 Sep13 Aug23 Jul28 (dini mike)MARIN SAMUEL 118 8.00    
3  LUCKY GIRL COCO Jan18 Aug11 Jul14 Jun21 May03 (morales g)MALDONADO GABRIEL 118 20.00    
4  AMENSET Jan01 Dec13 Nov10 Sep18 Jul28 (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  WHISPERING SEA Jan24 Dec13 Nov01 Oct17 Sep07 (wilson tony)IORIO MELISSA 118 6.00 28% 2.60    
6  CHILLING FACTOR Jan12 Dec29 Nov27 Aug31 Jul26 (fisher davi)QUINONEZ ALONSO 120 8.00    
7  OUR FLAG FLYING Jan11 Dec01 Nov17 Oct19 Oct04 (bennett gerald )CENTENO E 118 3.50    
8  SPECIAL AFFAIR Jan24 Jan01 Dec13 Nov27 Oct11 (hernandez enriqu)LEON SONNY 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  CAPTURED DARLING Jan25 Dec24 Dec04 Oct12 Sep15 (mcburney patri)CASTANON L 118 20.00    
10  SHE'S A KEEPER Jan24 Jan01 Dec13 Nov27 Oct04 (orantes yoni)BATISTA A 118 5.00 9% 10.70    
SCR  POSTINO'S PROPHECY Dec18 Oct12 Sep27 Sep01 Aug17 (einhorn )GALLARDO A 118 3.50    
SCR  PURE MAGIC GIRL Dec29 Dec04 Nov10 Oct10 Sep14 (lopez mari)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 120 8.00    
SCR  REAL MIKEY Jan26 Jan12 Dec13 Nov23 Jul27 (lusk r)GIL CIPRIANO 122 15.00    
SCR  JASSAI Jan29 Jan18 Jan05 Dec18 Dec11 (ochoa gerard)CENTENO E 122 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.