Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Sweetwater Downs
Saturday - September 23, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

SWF-6   WIN (6/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/1)-(6/7/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7/1)-(6/7/1)-(6/7/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
SWF-7   WIN (7/8/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/8/2)-(7/8/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/8/2)-(7/8/2)-(7/8/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
SWF-8   WIN (3/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/6)-(3/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/6)-(3/5/6)-(3/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/6)-(6/1/8/5/9) 15 $2.00 $30.00 
SWF-9   WIN (6/1/8/5/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/1/8/5/9)-(6/1/8/5/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/1/8/5/9)-(6/1/8/5/9)-(6/1/8/5/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
SWF-6   09/23/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($8.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SUNSHINE EMILY Sep08 Sep02 Aug27 Aug05 Jul29 (bunn shawn)AGUILAR DANIEL 123 5.00 13% 6.90    
ONE STEP AWAY Sep02 Aug05 Jul22 Jul02   (kemper ke)BOBROFF JACQUELYN 126 2.50    
WYOMING CONQUEST Sep10 Jun16 May05 Apr15 Apr01 (hall dru)LUSK TYSON 126 8.00    
SCR  AFTER CHAD Aug19 Jul29 Jul15 Sep11 Aug28 (hansen l)VIRGEN JESUS 126 12.00    
RAFAEL'S SURPRISE Sep10 Sep02 Aug18 Jul22 Jul08 (schindle)HERNANDEZ J 126 6.00    
ENCROACHMENT Aug06 Jul15 Oct22 Sep10 Aug06 (dominguez c)DOMINGUEZ URIEL 126 3.50 47% 1.10    
GREY POINT Sep08 Aug19 Aug06 Jul29 Jul15 (evans kash)WOOD DAKOTA 126 3.00 14% 6.40    
 
SWF-7   09/23/2023 3630ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($7.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FAYETTE WARRIOR Sep09 Sep03 Aug19 Jul30 Jul09 (bethke troy )BETHKE A 126 1.80    
ROYAL TAP Sep04 Aug25 Jul29 Jul08 Jun16 (scudder m)KELLENBERGER KODY 126 8.00 10% 9.50    
SAN GIORGIO Sep08 Sep03 Jul30 Jul23 Jul16 (warren k)HERNANDEZ J 126 4.50    
COLLINS AVE Sep09 Sep03 Aug19 Aug06 Jul29 (evans kash)WOOD DAKOTA 126 5.00    
RUN FOR MATTY Jun09 May27 May06 Apr21 Mar31 (ibanez albert)JIMENEZ DAVID 126 10.00    
SCR  CHARLIE MO Sep09 Sep03 Aug19 Aug06 Jul09 (dominguez c)DOMINGUEZ URIEL 126 6.00    
BOURBON AND WATER Sep10 Sep03 Aug05 Jul29 Jul02 (story shaun)PADILLA ANSELMO 126 8.00 37% 1.70    
WILDCATTERS DREAM Sep03 Aug05 Jul09 Jul01 Jun10 (hall dru)LUSK TYSON 126 6.00 21% 3.80    
 
SWF-8   09/23/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($7.9K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FAST SOPHIA Sep09 Sep02 Jul30 Jul16 Jul08 (lusk travis)PADILLA ANSELMO 126 8.00    
SOPHITA Sep09 Jul30 Jul08 Jun24 Jun10 (taylor jo)RIVAS CARLOS 126 10.00    
CD WINGSOFASOLDIER Sep08 Sep03 Aug05 Jul09 Jun04 (garfias jorge)LARSEN S 126 3.00 26% 2.90    
CREDIT CARD FRAUD Aug27 Aug14 May21 Apr08 Mar21 (kemper ke)BOBROFF JACQUELYN 126 3.50    
COME CORRECT Sep04 Sep02 Aug26 Aug19 Aug05 (williams dew)AGUILAR DANIEL 126 5.00 21% 3.80    
OUR HONEY BUNNY Sep10 Sep02 Aug19 Jul30 Jul16 (scudder r)KELLENBERGER KODY 126 4.50 11% 7.90    
EYEJUST TOOKCHARGE Sep02 Aug21 Jul30 Jun19 May06 (goodrich colby)VIRGEN JESUS 126 8.00    
MISS WILDCAT Sep08 Sep02 Jul29 Jul14 Jun16 (giles t)RAMOS MANUEL 126 10.00    
 
SWF-9   09/23/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Sue Wallis Purse ($12K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DR GS SWEETIE Sep10 Sep02 Aug26 Aug19 Aug06 (hadley tori)VALENZUELA R 128 6.00 26% 2.90    
  (by CHITU out of TRUE BLUE NATION by BLUEGRASS CAT)
ALWAYS A TIZ Sep08 Aug20 Jul30 Jul10 May29 (ibanez al)BOBROFF JACQUELYN 128 12.00    
  (by TIZWAY out of IKNEWGIRLNAMENIKKI by EVANSVILLE SLEW)
SILK ROAD SALLY Sep02 Aug26 Aug19 Aug05 Jul29 (mitchell )DE TORRE 128 12.00    
  (by SOUTHERN IMAGE out of SHE'S OUTTA THERE by OLD TOPPER)
A THOUSAND DREAMS Aug12 Jul19 Jul03 May05 Apr08 (williams dew)AGUILAR DANIEL 128 3.00    
  (by CARPE DIEM (FR) out of MILLENNIA by MILWAUKEE BREW)
SATIN HEART Sep04 Aug26 Aug05 Jul22 Jul02 (scudder r)KELLENBERGER KODY 126 5.00 6% 16.50    
  (by BRADESTER out of IN GOLD BLOOD by MY GOLDEN SONG)
CELEE'S LAST TE Sep09 Aug19 Aug06 Jul15 Jul08 (vicchrilli r)BETHKE A 128 4.50 39% 1.60    
  (by TULSA TE out of CELEE by CONGAREE)
INAGOODWAY Aug27 Jul23 Jul14 Jun18 Sep18 (ness john)GAMEZ M 128 10.00    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of TRUTH TAKES TIME by DEVIL HIS DUE)
TIME FOR KISSES Sep10 Sep02 Aug05 Jul01 Jun25 (openshaw james)LUSK TYSON 128 6.00 9% 10.70    
  (by TIME TO GET EVEN out of RIVER KISS by AWESOME GAMBLER)
WAPITI ROSE Sep02 Aug05 Jul16 Jul01 Jun10 (hall dru)LARSEN S 128 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ONEBADSHARK out of GOT ROSES by NIGHT CEREMONY)
10  HAYNESPUN Sep09 Aug19 Jul30 Jul23 Jul16 (warren k)HERNANDEZ J 128 8.00    
  (by HAYNESFIELD out of SPINNING STEEL by HARD SPUN)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.