Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Hawthorne
Sunday - August 13, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
HAW-1   WIN (5/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/3)-(5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/3)-(4/3/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/2/3)-(4/3/6)-(6/4/1) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
HAW-2   WIN (4/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/6)-(4/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/6)-(4/3/6)-(4/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/6)-(6/4/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/3/6)-(6/4/1)-(1/3/4) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
HAW-3   WIN (6/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/1)-(6/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/1)-(6/4/1)-(6/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/1)-(1/3/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/4/1)-(1/3/4)-(6/5/2) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
HAW-4   WIN (1/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/4)-(1/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3/4)-(1/3/4)-(1/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/3/4)-(6/5/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/3/4)-(6/5/2)-(6/10/5/4/3) 45 $0.50 $22.50 
HAW-5   WIN (6/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/2)-(6/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/2)-(6/5/2)-(6/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/2)-(6/10/5/4/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/5/2)-(6/10/5/4/3)-(8/2/3) 45 $0.50 $22.50 
HAW-6   WIN (6/10/5/4/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/10/5/4/3)-(6/10/5/4/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/10/5/4/3)-(6/10/5/4/3)-(6/10/5/4/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/10/5/4/3)-(8/2/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/10/5/4/3)-(8/2/3)-(7/9/6/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
HAW-7   WIN (8/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/2/3)-(8/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/2/3)-(8/2/3)-(8/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/2/3)-(7/9/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
HAW-8   WIN (7/9/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/9/6/4)-(7/9/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/9/6/4)-(7/9/6/4)-(7/9/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
HAW-1   08/13/2023 3300ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($8.5K) Purse ($19K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PALACE MAGIC Jul16 Jun21 Jun01 May18 May02 (witthauer)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 6.00    
2  FIRST SQUADRON Jun11 May25 May11 Apr02 Mar23 (cook brian)LEZCANO ABEL 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
3  PLAY TWENTY Jul26 Jun22 Jun11 Jun04 May06 (castro isidr)TAVARES JAVIER 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  AWESOME SUNDAY Jul26 Jul16 Jun08 May04 Apr18 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 120 4.00    
5  JUJU'S SPECIALGIRL Jul27 Jun10 Sep21 Sep08 Aug08 (hernandez armando)MOJICA O 122 2.50 71% 0.40    
6  GOOD MONGOLIA Jul20 Jun29 Jun11 Apr23 Mar26 (rodriguez)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 3.50    
7  STACY ATTACK Jul30 Jun11 May25 Apr13 Mar17 (watkins m)FELIX E 122 6.00    
 
HAW-2   08/13/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GAGOOTS Jul26 Jul09 Jun14 May21 May07 (watkins jame)TAVARES JAVIER 122 2.50    
2  NOT VERY GENTLE Jul26 Jul09 Jun21 May31 May21 (haran john)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 4.00    
3  VERRAZANOINTHESKY Aug03 Jul23 May31 May11 Apr16 (winebaugh)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 124 3.00 31% 2.30    
4  BIG BLUE Jul26 Jul09 Jun11 Apr27 Apr02 (hernandez javi)COLON H 122 4.50 31% 2.30    
5  OVERTHOUGHT Aug02 Jul20 Jun22 May25 May06 (rodriguez ed)GILES EMMANUEL 117 3.50    
6  MISTER CHARMING Jul16 Jun22 Jun04 Apr13 Mar19 (spagnola i)WEATHERLY BAILEY 112 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
HAW-3   08/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($14.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNCAPTURED DREAM Jul30 Jul13 Jun25 Jun07 May25 (watkins jame)GILES EMMANUEL 119 4.00 10% 8.60    
2  SUNDAY MISCHIEF Jul06 May31 Apr13 Mar23 Mar05 (campbell j)WEATHERLY BAILEY 112 5.00    
3  BRASKA Aug01 Jul18 Jul04 Jun20 Jun06 (straub ma)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 10.00    
4  FABRICATOR Jul23 Jul05 Jun14 May25 Apr30 (watkins jame)TAVARES JAVIER 122 4.50 31% 2.30    
5  DASTARDLY DEEDS Jul23 Jul06 Jun21 Jun14 Apr06 (flores j)REYES FRANK 122 12.00    
6  ALEXIS N NIKO Apr01 Mar19 Mar10 Feb16 Jan20 (rivelli larry)MOJICA O 122 1.00 33% 2.10    
 
HAW-4   08/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($39K) 3 F PT- 4:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LURE'EM IN Jul20 Jun21 May20 Mar12 Jan21 (block chr)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 4.00 34% 2.00    
2  SWEET NELLIE Jul20 Jun29 Jun02 Apr02 Mar19 (rosin w)HERNANDEZ K 120 4.50    
3  WILMA MANKILLER Jul20 Jun29 Jun01 May04 Jan26 (rivelli larr)CENTENO ALEXIS 120 2.50 21% 3.70    
4  IT'S MAGIC Jul19 Jun17       (winebaugh cher)COLON H 122 5.00 16% 5.20    
SCR  MOMENT TO SHINE Jun11 Dec07 Nov16     (rivelli larry)MOJICA O 120 3.50    
6  QUILTER Jul13 Jun24 May18 Nov14 Oct05 (granitz j)FELIX E 120 5.00    
 
HAW-5   08/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DRAMATIC KITTEN Aug03 Jun21 Jun11 May21 Nov26 (castro isi)WEATHERLY BAILEY 112 20.00    
2  TIME HEIST Jul26 Jul15 Jun21 Apr09 Mar23 (watkins jame)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 6.00 12% 7.40    
3  RISKY BOY Aug03 Jul16 Jun25 Jun15 May28 (shephard john)LEZCANO ABEL 122 12.00    
4  CINDY'S G MAN Jun17 May20 Apr22 Mar26 Mar09 (watkins m)FELIX E 122 6.00    
5  SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY Jul26 Jul09 Jun07 May18 Apr30 (reavis l)MOJICA O 122 2.50 24% 3.20    
6  BORN AGAIN GEORGE Jul05 Jun08 May21 May11 Apr21 (clay pat)GILES EMMANUEL 117 4.50 35% 1.90    
7  HURTS SO BAD Jul26 Jul06 Jun15 May28 Apr16 (meraz antonio)HERNANDEZ K 122 3.50    
SCR  GINSBURNED Jun27 Jun13 May06 Apr03 Mar17 (jansen kenny)ORTIZ ALVIN 122 5.00    
 
HAW-6   08/13/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($20K) Purse ($21K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MODIFIER Aug06 Jul23 Jul06 Jun14 Jun04 (perez manny)TAVARES JAVIER 122 5.00    
2  WICKED SUPRISE Jul27 Jul05 Jun15 May21 May04 (winebaugh)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 15.00    
3  MILLARD'S SMILE Aug06 Jul19 Jun22 Jun04 May26 (rodriguez eduardo)MOJICA O 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  MORRIE'S JOY Jun22 May31 Oct23 Aug04 Jul17 (miller patt)SANTIAGO VICTOR 117 12.00 8% 11.20    
5  GATE CREW Jul23 Jun14 May25 Apr20 Apr02 (boyce michele)HERNANDEZ K 122 10.00 9% 9.60    
6  STORM'S REFLECTION Jul19 Jul05 Jun07 May18 Apr06 (perez manny)LEZCANO ABEL 122 4.50 31% 2.20    
SCR  LONESTAR CHROME Jul12 Dec13 Dec01 Nov08 Oct24 (castro isidro)REYES FRANK 122 30.00    
8  EL RAYO (ARG) Jul23 Jul11 Jun17 May27 Apr09 (manley steve)CENTENO ALEXIS 120 6.00    
9  SLAVA UKRAINI Jul30 Jul09 Jun18 Jun04 May28 (zawitz joel)COLON H 120 6.00    
10  FORWARD CURVE Jul23 Jun14 May25 Dec02 Nov04 (becker scott)EMIGH A 122 3.50 27% 2.70    
SCR  G T FIVE HUNDRED Jul13 May28 May04 Apr16 Mar23 (mason ingrid)FELIX E 118 2.50    
 
HAW-7   08/13/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($38K) 2 ALL PT- 6:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ADIOS COOL ARROWS Jul23         (delong ben)COLON H 119 12.00    
  (by HOLY BOSS out of EASY A by MORE THAN READY)
2  EXCITABLE BOY         (robertson h)SANTIAGO VICTOR 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of ANNA'S ANGEL by RAISED SOCIALLY)
3  POND         (perez manny)REYES FRANK 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FROSTED out of DIVINE RULE by EMPIRE MAKER)
4  HEDGEHOGINTHEFOG Jul23         (perez manny)LEZCANO ABEL 119 15.00    
  (by CONNECT out of SIEGE GUN by CONGRATS)
SCR  NEON DEION         (rivelli larry)MOJICA O 119 3.50    
  (by PEACE AND JUSTICE out of HIGH STEP ARCH by ARCH)
6  JACK SPRAT         (essenpreis e)CENTENO ALEXIS 119 12.00    
  (by JACK MILTON out of LOOK WHO'S HERE by OVERPEER)
SCR  GIMME THE CANDY Jul23         (rivelli larry)EMIGH A 119 1.60 67% 0.50    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of RICHIE'SLILWILDCAT by WILDCAT HEIR)
8  RED MOSCATO         (lopez elias)HERNANDEZ K 119 5.00 8% 11.80    
  (by THREE HOUR NAP out of EMMA'S SMIDDY by CONCORD POINT)
 
HAW-8   08/13/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($38K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LIMANI May12 Apr08 Feb10 Apr10 Feb13 (childers van)TAVARES JAVIER 124 6.00    
  (by MASTERY out of SEEKING HER GLORY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
2  SHORT STRAW Jul26 Jun15 Apr27 Apr06   (rodriguez )WEATHERLY BAILEY 110 30.00    
  (by NEOLITHIC out of PAPERBACK PRINCESS by NOTEBOOK)
3  WILDWOOD ENOUGH Jul16 Jun11       (becker scott)CENTENO ALEXIS 124 4.50    
  (by HE'S HAD ENOUGH out of ELLENVILLE by CARSON CITY)
4  GOLD OAK Aug02 Jul19       (reavis l)FELIX E 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of LIVE OAKS LEGACY by GULCH)
5  RUTH OF JUDAH Jul26         (roussel loui)GILES EMMANUEL 115 6.00    
  (by BLAME out of LITTLE JUDE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
6  HER SPEAKER'S ON         (coontz arthur )COLON H 120 10.00 13% 6.50    
  (by MR SPEAKER out of LOOKN EVEN FINER by POINT GIVEN)
7  VIOLA         (rivelli larry)MOJICA O 120 3.50 44% 1.30    
  (by VIOLENCE out of BOLD UNION by DIXIE UNION)
8  BONITA D'ORO Aug02 Oct13 Aug26     (cook brian)LEZCANO ABEL 120 15.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of MEADOW MYSTIQUE by GHOSTZAPPER)
9  ANGEL EXPRESS Jul19 Jun11 Nov12     (childers )ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 5.00 18% 4.50    
  (by ADIOS CHARLIE out of HI HANNAH by BERNSTEIN)
SCR  BORDER STAR Jul19 Jul08       (manley stev)SANTIAGO VICTOR 124 15.00    
  (by BIRDSTONE out of HARD TO READ by ALPHABET SOUP)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.