Handicappers' Racing Form

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Tillamook County Fair
Thursday - August 10, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

TIL-1   Win (5/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00
TIL-3   Win (1/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
TIL-5   Win (6/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00
TIL-7   Win (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00
TIL-8   Win (5/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
TIL-1   08/10/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($5K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CAL'S GIRL Jul01 Aug11 Jun21     (bumgardner j)PRECIADO A 126 10.00    
SHESALILRUNAWAY Jul09 Jul01 Jun11 May13 Aug19 (harris j)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 124 1.80    
SMILING SALSA Jun25 May28 Aug07 Jul10 Jun11 (root ben)SMITH E 126 2.00    
LILY PAD LAKE Jun24 Jun10 Jun04 May21 Apr18 (harshman lo)JENSEN P 124 3.50 9% 10.50    
SENSATIONAL CITY Jul01 Jun17 May04     (lyons s)CONTRERAS CRUZ 126 3.00 64% 0.60    
 
TIL-3   08/10/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($6K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BUSY PAYNTER Dec17 Dec09 Sep24 Sep16 Aug26 (lawrence heath)WEBB B 126 1.50 35% 1.90    
WATERFALL Jun24 Sep02 Aug11 Jul04 Jun27 (crystal dustie)LOPEZ E 126 4.50    
SWISS SCRIPT Jul01 Aug27 Aug12 Jul04 Jun21 (boyle ma)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 3.50 23% 3.30    
GREAT CURVES Jul02 Jun25 Aug11 Jun21   (hof d)JENSEN P 126 4.00 13% 6.80    
LOW DOSE Jul07 Jun18 Jun10 May27 May14 (hof d)SMITH E 126 3.00    
 
TIL-5   08/10/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($5K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LIGHT OF FAITH Jul04 Jun24 Jun18 Jul14   (rodriguez ros)GUERRERO C 126 3.50    
NEATAPAR Jul02 Sep17 Sep02 Aug11 Jul14 (cantrell mar)PRECIADO A 126 3.00 26% 2.90    
AX 'S SHORE Jul30 Jul08 Jun25 Jun18 Jun04 (dennis clif)IRONEYES R 126 4.50    
MIDNIGHT DADDY Apr10 Mar19 Feb18     (stillwell tucke)LOPEZ E 126 6.00    
SCR  MORDIGAN         (weissner tasha)SMITH E 119 8.00 15% 5.60    
TIZ CURLY JOE Jun18 Jun11 Apr17     (crystal dus)JENSEN P 124 2.50 33% 2.00    
 
TIL-7   08/10/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($6K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SKEESIX Jun25 Jun17 Aug11 Jun28 Jun20 (hof d)SMITH E 126 2.00 46% 1.20    
SCR  BREXTON Jul02 Mar25 Mar12 Mar05 Feb25 (craig ja)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 3.00    
CHUMLY Jul02 Jun25 Jun18 May13 Jun24 (hof d)JENSEN P 126 3.00    
LOOKIN FOR GOLD Aug10 May02 Apr04 Mar15 Feb28 (weissner )BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 126 8.00    
GENERAL THAYER Jun25 Jun17 May13 Apr23 Mar25 (root ben)CONTRERAS CRUZ 126 2.50 22% 3.40    
 
TIL-8   08/10/2023 3300ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($5K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:30
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FOREVER GOLD Jun25 May28 May13 Mar01 Feb20 (hof d)CRUZ DIAZ 126 8.00    
ROMAN RUSH Jul04 Jun25 Jun09 Aug27 Aug06 (crystal dustie)LOPEZ E 126 2.50 26% 2.80    
STARBOARD LIST Jun25 Aug27 Aug11 Jul15 Jun20 (harshman loega)SMITH E 126 4.00 9% 10.50    
MOLAF Jul04 Jun25 Jul13 Jul04 Jun10 (romo jose)GARCIA G 126 6.00    
WHOS DALLINS DADDY Jun18 May29 Feb12 Feb02 Jan12 (potts as)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 3.00 38% 1.60    
MIZONEY Jun24 Jun11 Dec09 Nov15 Oct08 (sanguino juan)GUERRERO C 121 4.50    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.