The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 

Tillamook County Fair
Thursday - August 11, 2022

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TIL-1   08/11/2022 3300ft DIRT FAST MSW6000 ($0K) Purse ($6K) 3UP ALL PT-
1:033         1:033   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JHAWK FLYER 2 1 1½ 1½   1½ 1(stewart larry)GOODGAME R null   23% 3.40 3.30 W
SIMONSITO 5 2 2½ 2½   2½ 2(young r)GONZALEZ FLORES null   3.30 P
LUCKY SNAKE 1 3 32 32   33(gilmour jim)JENSEN P null   1.30 S
NEATAPAR 4 4 45 46   44(braden darlene)SMITH E null   51% 0.90 2.50  
WINSOME LEVOTTI 3 5 511 512   513½ 512¾ (balcom sharon)JIMENEZ SANTIAGO null   7.10  
 
TIL-3   08/11/2022 3300ft DIRT FAST CLM5000NW2L ($5K) Purse ($4K) 3UP ALL PT-
1:024         1:024   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KEEN JAMES 2 4 3 32   31(cox jo)SMITH E null   37% 1.70 1.10 W
LUCKY CHAMP 4 5 5 55   42(ortega joe)JENSEN P null   5.10 P
REBEL ROAR 6 2 2½ 21   2½ 3(dennis g)GOODGAME R null   17% 4.70 8.50 S
SUCCESSFUL COMMAND 1 6 610½ 69   66 44 (balcom sharon)JIMENEZ SANTIAGO null   20% 4.10 1.90  
BLUE SUNSET 3 3 4 44   55(crystal dustie)PRECIADO A null   8.30  
LONGFORD 5 1 1½ 11   1½ 6(guerrero diego)GUERRERO C null   8.30  
 
TIL-5   08/11/2022 3300ft DIRT FAST ALW5000 ($0K) Purse ($5K) 3UP ALL PT-
1:013         1:013   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STARBOARD LIST 5 1 11 13   11¾ (harshman d)SMITH E null   45% 1.20 2.70 W
SKEESIX 3 3 21 23   22¾ (hof d)JIMENEZ SANTIAGO null   1.10 P
MATTAWA N THAT 4 2 33 3   34 3(boyle mary)JENSEN P null   16% 5.30 1.40 S
BEING A BOSS 2 4 4 410½   410 4(harris john)GONZALEZ FLORES null   13% 6.90 10.40  
PACKRAT BRANT 1 5 511½ 520½   522 535½ (stewart larry)GOODGAME R null   13.50  
SCR  ZOE'S PAPA CEE               (bumgardner jim)PRECIADO A null      
 
TIL-6   08/11/2022 3300ft DIRT FAST CLM5000 ($5K) Purse ($4K) 3UP M/F PT-
1:021         1:021   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HERE'S THE THING 2 2 1nk 1nk   1½ 1¾ (crystal dustie)PRECIADO A null   11% 7.80 2.50 W
MY LITE NITE 3 3 2nk 2nk   2½ 2¾ (hof d)SMITH E null   58% 0.70 1.20 P
BRITE LILY 1 5 42 33   33(dennis g)GOODGAME R null   8.40 S
AT U LOVER 4 1 31 4   57 4(lewis roberta)GUERRERO C null   3.50  
HYPHY 5 4 5 5   45(maelfeyt bruno)JIMENEZ SANTIAGO null   3.40  
 
TIL-7   08/11/2022 3300ft DIRT FAST ALW5000NW3L ($0K) Purse ($5K) 3UP M/F PT-
1:031         1:031   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GREAT CURVES 3 5 34 36   2½ 11 (harshman d)SMITH E null   37% 1.70 3.90 W
WATERFALL 1 1 13 13   1½ 21 (crystal dustie)GOODGAME R null   8% 11.10 4.80 P
GOING ALL IN 2 2 23 23   31 3(gilmour jim)JIMENEZ SANTIAGO null   1.60 S
SHE'S MY RIDE 6 6 6 49   42 4(ortega joe)GUERRERO C null   2.30  
LEAD ACTRESS 4 4 56 610½   55(maelfeyt bruno)GONZALEZ FLORES null   11.70  
CAL'S GIRL 5 3 44 59   667 (bumgardner jim)PRECIADO A null   29% 2.50 5.60  
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.