Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Fort Erie
Monday - October 17, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
FE-1   10/17/2022 3300ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.23K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOMEONE ELSE Oct06 Sep01 Aug11 Jul14 Jun23 (ritchi)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 1.80 13% 6.60    
2  NEW YORK COMMANDER Oct11 Sep29 Sep13 Sep01 Aug01 (mustoe)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 5.00 ★    
3  FUN COOL Oct10 Aug22 Aug16 Aug02 Jul19 (warner k)MAILHOT P 118 4.00 ★    
4  LIME Sep27 Sep06 Aug29 Aug02 Jul17 (robillard jul)HERNANDEZ K 120 3.50 45% 1.20    
5  LINDA LOVES LACE Oct03 Sep27 Sep06 Aug23 Aug02 (po)BOULANGER CHANCE 122 2.50 15% 5.60    
 
FE-2   10/17/2022 5490ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.23K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DETERMINATOR Sep27 Aug29 Aug01 Apr12 Apr02 (buttig)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 5.00 28% 2.60    
2  DIAMONDBACK Oct03 Sep19 Aug14 Jul26 Jul12 (wieczorek ken)PINTO MELANIE 122 2.00 42% 1.40    
3  CRYPTIC CREED Oct11 Oct01 Sep18 Jul29 Jun23 (agostino)BUCHANAN Z 118 1.60 ★    
4  HALF LIT Oct11 Oct04 Sep06 Aug23 Aug02 (keen h)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 8.00 ★    
5  THE NEWFIE EXPRESS Oct11 Sep22 Sep05 Jul08 Jun10 (robill)ALDERSON IAN 122 3.50 ★    
 
FE-3   10/17/2022 4290ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($19.404K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MORE SAVVY Sep27 Aug25 Aug11 Jul28 Jul14 (siddo barringto)MORENO OMAR 120 3.00 ★    
2  SWEET FINALE Oct04 Sep06 Aug22 Aug08 Jul12 (buttigieg kev)PINTO MELANIE 120 4.50 14% 6.00    
3  CASSIE'S RAINBOW Oct11 Oct03 Sep19 Sep12 Aug29 (davies)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 4.00 42% 1.40    
4  FLECK Sep12 Aug29 Aug09 Jul19 Jun28 (bu)BOULANGER CHANCE 122 3.50 ★    
5  REIGN BY REIN Sep19 Aug30 Jul17 Jun18 May26 (ezra d)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 2.50    
6  SHOW SOME SKIN Oct03 Sep19 Sep05 Aug16 Jul25 (capi m)CRAWFORD J 120 10.00 13% 6.90    
 
FE-4   10/17/2022 3300ft DIRT RC0 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($4K) Purse ($14.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NO MORE Oct10 Sep05 Aug14 Jul25 Jul11 (ceccato sharon)CRAWFORD J 118 3.00 24% 3.10    
2  MIGHTY PELE Sep09 Aug20 Jul29 Jul08 Jun03 (banach d)JONES SLADE 115 4.00    
3  MISTER M V P Oct04 Aug19 Jul22 Jun30 Jun04 (wills )ALDERSON IAN 120 8.00 12% 7.70    
4  INFINITELY KATZ         (robillard juli)JOHNSON KIRK 118 8.00 12% 7.60    
5  CANT GLIDE BY KATZ Oct04 Sep02 Jul31 Jul10   (robillard jul)HERNANDEZ K 116 10.00    
6  STORMIN' HUMOR Oct04 Sep06 Jul26 Jul10 Jun26 (co)BOULANGER CHANCE 118 6.00 ★    
7  AND ME TOO Jun17         (ceccat)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 118 2.00 26% 2.90    
 
FE-5   10/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.23K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROYAL BIZ Sep27 Aug29 Aug08 Jul25 Jul04 (siddo barrington)SALLES LEO 120 2.00 23% 3.30    
2  YZERMAN Oct04 Sep12 Jul29 Jul08 Jun17 (lister steven)DEFREITAS C 120 12.00 ★    
3  TOO LEGIT Oct09 Sep09 Jul29 Jul08 Jun18 (mcknight norman)JADOO STEVE 120 3.00 22% 3.50    
4  PAPERBACK HERO Oct04 Sep20 Aug29 Aug14 Aug01 (agostino)BUCHANAN Z 122 4.00 13% 6.50    
5  READY AT DAWN Oct11 Sep20 Sep12 Aug30 Aug22 (ezra d)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 6.00 10% 9.10    
6  WILD RIVER WOLF Oct10 Aug30 Aug02 Jul19 Jul05 (robillard jul)HERNANDEZ K 118 15.00    
7  THELONIOUS Oct04 Sep12 Aug30 Aug14 Jul26 (raghunath ravend)CRAWFORD J 118 5.00    
 
FE-6   10/17/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($21.168K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEAQUELLE Oct10 Sep27 Sep12 Aug16 Jul25 (neubauer mich)PINTO MELANIE 120 2.50 36% 1.80    
2  RIGHT MATTERS Oct10 Aug23 Jul19 Jun11   (robillard juli)JOHNSON KIRK 118 15.00    
3  SMART IRENE Oct10 Sep20 Aug22 Aug08 Jul19 (albu ken)CRAWFORD J 118 12.00    
SCR  CONGRATS EXTENSION Sep13         (neubau)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 113 4.50 ★    
5  OUR SOUPER LOVE Sep29 Sep01 Jul30 Jan09   (depaulo michael )SALLES LEO 118 1.60 16% 5.20    
6  MOHAYMEN DAY Sep22 Sep01       (parente pat)HERNANDEZ K 118 4.00 16% 5.30    
7  BRIENNE OF TARTH Oct10 Sep29 Sep05 Aug18 Jul16 (robill)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 118 20.00 8% 11.90    
 
FE-7   10/17/2022 3300ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($19.404K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ALLABOUTTHEDRAMA Oct10 Oct04 Aug16 Aug01 Jul17 (loescher paula)CRAWFORD J 117 4.50 ★    
2  SHAKOO MAKOO Oct04 Aug23 Jul19 Jun13   (alders)ALDERSON IAN 122 1.80 52% 0.90    
3  BRADY O'BRADY Sep27 Sep06 Aug23 Aug09 Jul19 (siddo barrington)MAILHOT P 120 12.00    
4  BE THE CHANGE Oct11 Sep27 Sep06 Aug02 Jul19 (siddo barringt)JOHNSON KIRK 120 5.00 14% 6.00    
5  SILENCE BREAKERS Oct11 Sep27 Aug30 Jul07 Jun19 (ceccato sharon)SALLES LEO 120 2.50 ★    
6  GLITTER MOUNTAIN Oct04 Aug30 Aug16 Aug02 Jul17 (widenmaier me)JOHNSON DEVON 120 15.00 ★    
7  WONNEFRAC Oct04 Sep06 Aug22 Aug09 Jul26 (humber joseph)HERNANDEZ K 122 8.00    
 
FE-8   10/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($24.108K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUIGU STAR Sep19 Sep05 Aug05 Jul26 Jul11 (agostino)BUCHANAN Z 122 2.50 31% 2.20    
2  M C JACKHAMMER Oct10 Aug30 Aug08 Jul19 Jun28 (humber)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 118 4.00 9% 9.70    
3  WORKIN OUT Sep02 Aug14 Jul03     (giliforte la)ALDERSON NIKKI 115 5.00    
SCR  QUIET WYATT Oct10 Sep13 Aug30 Jul19 Jul10 (voyce jeff)CRAWFORD J 118 3.00 25% 3.10    
5  ORPHAN HALLIE Aug16 Aug08 May07 Apr24   (raghunath ravend)SALLES LEO 120 6.00 7% 13.30    
6  ACTION POINT Sep27 Sep06 Aug26 Aug05 Jul24 (davis jennif)NICHOLLS KEVEH 118 8.00    
7  BABY LUNA Oct11 Sep27 Aug30 Aug02 Jul19 (williams noel )JOHNSON KIRK 117 12.00 ★    
 
FE-9   10/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Claiming ($8K) Purse ($21.756K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SASSYWITHATTITUDE Oct04 Sep12 Aug23 Jul21 Jul07 (raghunath ravend)SALLES LEO 118 3.00 33% 2.00    
2  BABY DRIVER Sep27 Sep13 Sep02 Aug19 Jul29 (tomlinson no)NICHOLLS KEVEH 118 15.00 8% 12.30    
3  TERRIFIC LADY Oct03 Sep13 Sep05 Jul29 Jul16 (robillard jul)HERNANDEZ K 116 6.00    
4  ONLY BELIEVE Oct11 Oct03 Sep20 Aug22 Jul26 (co)BOULANGER CHANCE 120 5.00 ★    
5  ROAD MAP Sep18 Sep05 Aug25 Jul30 Jul15 (siddo )ALDERSON IAN 120 2.00 21% 3.80    
6  DEVIL IN HER HEART Oct03 Sep19 Sep05 Aug08 Aug01 (agostino)BUCHANAN Z 118 4.00 15% 5.60    
7  DAZZLING DIVA Sep19 Sep01 Aug14 Jul30 Jul04 (albu ken)PINTO MELANIE 118 12.00    
 
FE-10   10/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 Maiden Claimer ($6.25K) Purse ($18.522K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS SCHILLER Oct11         (humber)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 118 20.00 6% 14.90    
2  SUNDAY VISIT Oct11 Sep29 Sep15 Aug25 Aug04 (robillard jul)HERNANDEZ K 116 8.00    
3  LAILA'S CHARM Sep29 Sep15 Aug25 Aug04 Jul07 (pottin)ALDERSON IAN 118 20.00    
4  HI AST POWER         (chubb beverley)CRAWFORD J 120 6.00 12% 7.40    
5  CANT BEAT THE KATZ Oct04         (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 118 4.00    
6  OUR STORMY SOPHIA Oct04 Sep20 Aug29 Aug09 Jul26 (shirley lu)KING MARIE 118 15.00    
7  PAPA'S SILVER Oct04 Sep20 Sep06 Aug23 Aug16 (widenmaier me)JOHNSON DEVON 118 2.00 33% 2.00    
8  MY LAST DREAM Oct03 Sep20 Sep05 Aug22 Aug16 (widenm)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 113 3.00 21% 3.70    
9  MIZZ GEMMA Oct04 Sep20 Aug23 Aug08 Jul19 (albu ken)JOHNSON KIRK 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.