Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Saratoga
Thursday - July 28, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
SAR-1   07/28/2022 5940ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($105K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMENSET Jun23 May27 May04 Mar26 Mar01 (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 ★    
2  FOREVER AFTER ALL Jun23 May27       (stall al)SANTANA JR 118 3.50 6% 15.30    
3  SHE'S KEEN Jun23 May27 May06 Apr08   (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 118 4.00 ★    
4  INVENTING Jun11 May06 Apr02     (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 118 1.80 55% 0.80    
5  AUNT NAUGHTY Jun09 Apr15 Jan27     (mcgaughey clau)LEZCANO JOSE 124 2.50 14% 6.00    
6  CINQ SOUERS Jun23 May29 May09     (medina robert)DAVIS DYLAN 118 15.00    
 
SAR-2   07/28/2022 3630ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($88K) 2 F PT- 1:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAD SAMARITAN         (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 119 12.00    
2  FLEETFOOTED         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
3  SOUFFLE (GB)         (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 119 2.50 26% 2.80    
4  LITTLE LINZEE         (schettino do)CASTELLANO J 119 15.00    
5  SLOW DOWN SUMMER         (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 119 12.00    
6  SNOWY EVENING Jul04         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 119 3.00 30% 2.30    
7  SHOWEMYOURHEELS         (gargan danny)CARMOUCHE K 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
8  MOONAGE DAYDREAM         (abreu r)ORTIZ L 119 6.00 18% 4.50    
9  FRANKIE C         (trites a)GOMEZ ANTONIO 114 30.00    
10  FANCYPANTS JULIANA         (englehart jeremia)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
SCR  LADY JASMINE         (donk david)VELAZQUEZ R 119 10.00    
SCR  MAGGIE Jul05         (kirby t)CANCEL ERIC 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  AMANDA'S FOLLY Jun25         (rodriguez r)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 15.00    
SCR  FLUTIE FLAKES         (englehart je)CASTELLANO J 119 15.00    
SCR  SPINNING COLORS         (hennig mark)VELAZQUEZ R 119 8.00    
 
SAR-3   07/28/2022 4290ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOST IN ROME Jun30 May29 Apr09 Mar26 Mar06 (rodriguez gust)LEZCANO JOSE 122 12.00    
2  AUBURN HILLS Jul14 Jun24 May06 Apr08 Feb25 (persaud ran)ALVARADO JUNIOR 122 8.00 18% 4.60    
SCR  BOLDISH Jan17         (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 122 1.80 42% 1.40    
SCR  FIRST DEPUTY Jul26 Jun01 Apr15 Mar10 Feb18 (englehart j)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 15.00 9% 10.50    
5  QUICK RETURN Jun22 May12 Apr28 Mar18   (shirer m)SANTANA JR 124 4.00    
6  SARATOGA PAL Jun23 Feb12 Jan08     (englehart chris)CANCEL ERIC 122 4.50    
7  SOMEBODY Jul09 May19 Apr03 Feb27 Jan14 (bond harol)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00 ★    
8  SICILIA MIKE Jul09 Jun04 May21 Apr29 Mar31 (lucas bonnie)DAVIS DYLAN 124 6.00 ★    
 
SAR-4   07/28/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($88K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAPLETON Jul17         (richards mar)HARKIE K 119 30.00    
2  SINFUL DANCER Jul03 Jun09 Apr30 Apr03 Mar05 (weaver george)CANCEL ERIC 124 5.00 26% 2.90    
3  TWO FOR CHARGING May29 Apr30       (abreu r)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 5.00 ★    
4  COMPROMISER Jun30 Jun09       (grossman r)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00    
5  CURLIN'S WISDOM May29 May01 Apr07 Feb05   (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 119 6.00 16% 5.40    
6  OCEAN'S RESERVE Jul03 Jun09 May14     (gyarmati lea)CASTELLANO J 119 2.00 28% 2.60    
7  FULL COMPLEMENT Jul03 Jun10       (jerkens )GOMEZ ANTONIO 114 10.00    
8  DEVIL BOY Jun09 May14       (englehart jere)ORTIZ L 124 4.00 10% 9.00    
 
SAR-5   07/28/2022 9240ft DIRT RC2 GOOD nongraded Stake Purse ($200K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FEARLESS Jun11 May28 Apr23 Apr02 Mar05 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 124 0.80 26% 2.80    
2  LONE ROCK Jun11 May03 Apr03 Feb12   (diodoro rober)ORTIZ JR 122 1.20 51% 1.00    
3  ORIGINAL INTENT Jun11 May08 Mar26 Feb25 Jan22 (combs bentley)ROSARIO JOEL 118 12.00 ★    
4  PORTOS Jun11 May06 Apr13     (pletcher todd )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 8.00 ★    
5  SHOOGER RAY TOO Jun28 May21 Mar29 Jan19   (servis j)SANTANA JR 118 12.00 ★    
 
SAR-6   07/28/2022 5280ft TURF RC0 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLD CALL Jul06 Jun02 Feb13     (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00    
2  PEGS A. K. GIRL         (dini mike)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
3  BIRTHDAY TIME (GER) Jun04 Apr10 Mar12     (pletcher todd )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 2.50 46% 1.20    
4  PUBLIC SERVICE Jun10 Apr16 Jan30     (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50    
5  ANY PORT Apr15 Mar11 Feb12     (lerman roy )ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 15.00    
6  RICELLE Jun30 Jun10 May15     (legall ricar)SAMUEL L 124 30.00    
7  DANCING SOPHIA Jul04 Mar11 Feb16     (motion gr)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 8.00    
8  ROUNDABOUT Jun30 May15       (terranova john )CANCEL ERIC 118 20.00    
9  BELLESHAZZA Jul03 Jun10 May20 Apr14 Feb18 (sciacca gary)ROSARIO JOEL 118 12.00    
10  INVESTMENT INCOME Jun04 Mar11       (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 124 3.00 9% 10.00    
SCR  SHE'S A NATURAL May30         (arriaga anto)CASTELLANO J 118 30.00    
SCR  BARRETT         (maker mi)SANTANA JR 118 8.00    
SCR  BRISKY FROLIC Apr09 Feb13 Jan02     (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00 13% 6.50    
SCR  TEKILA Jun23 May13       (hennig mark)VELAZQUEZ R 124 8.00    
SCR  AFILADA Jun23 May13 Apr06 Feb18 Jan20 (brown r)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  REGINA Jul22 Feb24 Jan23     (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 118 2.50 6% 16.60    
 
SAR-7   07/28/2022 3630ft TURF RC0 GOOD Allowance Purse ($115K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EVAN SING May28 Apr30 Mar17     (stall m)ORTIZ L 120 8.00    
2  IMMORTALIZATION Jul01 Jun17 Apr21 Jan28   (hemin)DIAZ RAFAEL 122 8.00    
3  RING OF FIRE Jul04 May14       (rodriguez r)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50    
4  BUSTIN SHOUT Jul04 Apr21 Mar05 Jan01   (levine bruce)CARMOUCHE K 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  LEGENDS CAN'T DIE Jul03         (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.50 26% 2.90    
6  THIN WHITE DUKE Jul02 Jun03 May06 Apr16 Mar19 (donk david)VELAZQUEZ R 124 6.00    
7  BIZ BIZ BUZZ Jun16         (trombetta mi)CASTELLANO J 120 20.00    
8  BOSTON TEA PARTY Jul04 May29       (dutrow anthony )CANCEL ERIC 120 2.50 28% 2.50    
SCR  MALIBU S S May31 May07 Mar26     (amoss m)RIDER TBA 120 5.00 18% 4.50    
SCR  RISK PROFILE Mar11 Feb12 Jan08     (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 124 3.00 ★    
SCR  MR. PETE Jun23 May22 May06 Apr24 Mar18 (davis edmun)ALVARADO JUNIOR 124 15.00    
 
SAR-8   07/28/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($95K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DANGEROUS EDGE Jul02 Jun16 May28 Apr07 Mar20 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 123 4.00 14% 6.30    
SCR  FULL MOON FEVER Jun30 May30 May08 Apr10 Mar20 (hennig mark)SAEZ LUIS 125 4.00    
SCR  SON OF AN EX Jun30 May28 May08 May01 Apr02 (persaud randi)CARDENAS LUIS 125 15.00    
3  THRILL OF IT May30 Mar27 Feb24     (terranov)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  PRICE DISCIPLINE Jun30 May29       (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 0.80 50% 1.00    
5  FORTY TWO ACE Jun18 Mar19 Feb24 Feb04 Jan02 (baker charlton)ROSARIO JOEL 123 10.00    
6  GREAT WORKOUT Jul04 May05 Apr16 Mar19 Feb05 (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 123 5.00 12% 7.40    
7  MR BREADWINNER May28 Apr30 Apr03 Feb04   (de horacio)CARMOUCHE K 125 15.00 ★    
8  RHYMES LIKE DIMES Apr10 Feb16 Jan09     (joseph saff)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 20.00    
9  BOSSMAKINBOSSMOVES Jun24 May30 May08 Apr14 Mar25 (schosberg ric)VELAZQUEZ R 120 20.00    
 
SAR-9   07/28/2022 7260ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PARSIMONY Jul14 May24 May06 Feb07 Jan05 (kantarmaci mert)CARMOUCHE K 124 3.00    
1A  PIONEER SPIRIT Jul22 Jun18 Apr21 Mar20 Feb04 (kantarmaci )MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 3.00    
2  COLD HARD CASH Jul09         (rice linda)VELAZQUEZ R 122 6.00 16% 5.20    
SCR  MUD PIE Jun03         (arnold geo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00 8% 11.80    
SCR  REIGNING SPIRIT May21 Apr22 Mar20 Feb19   (stall m)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 4.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BALTHUS (IRE) Jun30 May20 Apr23     (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 126 2.00 24% 3.20    
6  OFFLEE NAUGHTY Jul01 Jun03 Mar12 Feb04   (mccarthy micha)ORTIZ L 122 12.00    
SCR  MCLOVIN Jun03 Apr24 Feb13     (brisset rodolp)ROSARIO JOEL 126 6.00    
8  TIDE OF THE SEA Jun03 May01 Apr02 Mar05 Jan30 (morley thomas)DAVIS DYLAN 122 12.00    
9  AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM May21 Jan30       (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00    
SCR  WICKED FAST Jun03 Apr02 Mar16 Feb18   (abreu r)LEZCANO JOSE 120 15.00    
11  RODERICK Jul04 Jun17 May20 Apr20   (bauer phili)ALVARADO JUNIOR 122 2.00 26% 2.80    
 
SAR-10   07/28/2022 3630ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($35K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GINNSU WARRIOR Jun25 May27 Apr16 Feb21 Feb03 (morley thomas)DAVIS DYLAN 118 4.50 5% 19.00    
2  COUSIN ANDREW Jun25 May27 May19     (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 122 4.00 12% 7.30    
3  DEREGULATION (GB) Jul09 May29 Apr01 Mar25 Mar02 (terranov)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 8.00    
4  FROZEN FUNDS         (hemin)DIAZ RAFAEL 122 20.00    
SCR  ZEALIN IT Jun16         (clarke dylan)CANCEL ERIC 122 30.00    
SCR  HUDSON OVERPASS Jul09 Jun12       (grossman bru)SAMUEL L 122 30.00    
7  LORD GATLING May08 Apr07 Feb12 Jan16   (klesaris robe)CARDENAS LUIS 120 10.00    
SCR  COOL LAOBAN Jun30 May21       (casse mark)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 5.00    
9  NATURE BOY Jun30 Jun02 Apr14 Mar13   (noda orland)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 20.00    
10  COURAGEOOUS OH LA Jul09 Jun18 May13 May02   (dixon k)ALVARADO R 118 15.00    
SCR  SANDRONE May21 Apr23       (bond james)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 5% 19.00    
SCR  HEZASTONECOLDFOX Jul09 Jan18       (brown bruce )CASTELLANO J 118 12.00    
SCR  UNCLE GEORGE Jun18 May21 Apr23     (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 122 2.50 52% 0.90    
SCR  FOMO Jun26 Jun04 May20 Apr28   (hendriks mcla)ORTIZ JR 122 4.50    
SCR  HE'S GOT IT Jul09 Jun18 Apr23 Mar18 Feb11 (ryerson t)CARMOUCHE K 120 15.00    
16  STORM SHOOTER May27 May21 May05 Mar13 Feb13 (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 122 2.50 8% 11.70    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.