Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Friday - July 15, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/15/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AREYOUTALKINGTOME Jun25 Jun08 May06 Apr30 Mar31 (quartarolo )GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 8.00 10% 9.50    
2  ZELIG Mar04 Jan28 Jan02     (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 2.50 31% 2.20    
3  W W KAN DO Jun25 Jun10 May20 May15 Apr30 (rodriguez eduar)HOLMES GAGE 117 5.00 17% 5.00    
4  PEQUENO GRANDE Jun12 May15 May03 Apr25 Apr19 (larue steve)EMIGH A 124 20.00 5% 18.50    
5  RED ALERT         (hancock jack )BAILEY CHEL-C 119 4.50 ★    
6  MASON A. P. Jun25 Jun10 May22     (hill f)MILLER CHASE 124 8.00    
7  MESSIAH Mar04 Feb09       (moquett e)DIAZ RENE 119 2.00    
 
ELP-2   07/15/2022 5610ft TURF RC0 FIRM Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($16.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PLAYOFF BOUND Jun23 May16 Mar30 Mar18 Mar10 (toye lin)REYES R 125 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  FLY NIGHTLY Jun24 Jun10 May12 Mar19 Feb26 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 123 3.00 39% 1.60    
3  MAJORS VINDICATION Jun23         (stall m)JOHNSON M 123 12.00    
4  ROAR OF THE LION Jun24 Jun10 May20 Apr24 Apr09 (lynch e)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 20.00    
5  PEERLESS COURT Jun30 May18 Apr28     (hiles a)LANERIE J 120 15.00    
6  MOLIERE Mar27 Feb26 Jan27     (warpool shane)BAILEY CHEL-C 118 8.00    
7  JUST GUN IT Jun10 May21 Apr30 Apr16 Feb24 (rodriguez eduardo)DIAZ RENE 118 20.00    
8  TIZ LIGHT THE WAY Jun08 May15 Mar06 Feb14 Jan07 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 3.50 7% 12.70    
9  CAN'T HIDE FROM ME Jun11 May16 Apr24 Mar25 Mar02 (stinson w)PEDROZA MARCELINO 123 6.00 25% 3.00    
10  MARKITOFF May16 May04 Apr24 Mar05 Feb10 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 123 4.50    
11  THE BOSS FACTOR Jun08 May05 Mar25 Mar05 Feb16 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-3   07/15/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($19K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STUPENDOUS Jun12 Mar18 Feb06     (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 118 1.80 51% 1.00    
2  GRACE'S SECRET Jun12 May29 Jan02     (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 124 1.40 26% 2.90    
3  SUM MORE BIZZNESS         (colebrook)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00 ★    
4  SWEET TRUFFLES Jul03 Jun10 May05 Mar17   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 124 5.00 ★    
5  TOTAL DISCRETION Jun30         (shirer a)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00 ★    
6  YELLOW CREEK ROAD Jun19 May19       (hancock a)COURT K 118 20.00    
SCR  DARENE Jun10 Apr27       (moquett ronal)GILLIGAN JACK 118 12.00    
 
ELP-4   07/15/2022 5280ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CATHERINE BLAZE Jul04 Jun17 May26     (leonard geo)PETERSON FERRIN 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SHE'S JERSEY TUFF Jul04 Jun17 Jun03 May20 Apr21 (leonard geo)PETERSON FERRIN 119 30.00 ★    
2  C C CRUISE CONTROL Jun17         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 8.00    
3  RUM RUNNER READY Jun10         (morey e)GRAHAM J 119 6.00    
4  CORVINA Jun23         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.50 26% 2.80    
5  MISS ADDIE LYNN Jun23         (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 15.00 6% 16.50    
6  THIRTY CARATS         (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 10.00    
7  AMERICAN APPLE Jun17 May05       (leitch dan)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
8  LADY SQUARED Jun17         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 6% 15.60    
9  WHAT AN HONOR         (maker michael)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 6.00    
10  FLASHY GEM         (cox bra)DE CRUZ 119 6.00    
SCR  SOUTHLAWN Jun03         (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.00 25% 3.00    
 
ELP-5   07/15/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NORGAY         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 8.00 21% 3.80    
2  VALE         (forster t)GRAHAM J 119 12.00    
3  PINE VALLEY         (brisset ro)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00    
4  KIAWAH BREEZE May20 Mar16       (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 5.00 ★    
SCR  CALL ME FAST Jun25         (puh)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 15.00    
6  SCRATCHOFF         (foley greg)LANERIE J 119 20.00    
7  SHAKEDOWN STREET Jun18         (margolis )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.50 32% 2.10    
SCR  WORDS OF WISDOM May15 Apr08 Feb26 Jan22   (diodoro roberti)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00    
9  MR. MARIAH         (pittman bonni)BAILEY CHEL-C 114 30.00    
10  LEVITY         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
11  LUCKY DEVIL Jun25 May22 Apr02 Mar12   (west w)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 12% 7.70    
12  AIR COMBAT         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00 11% 7.80    
 
ELP-6   07/15/2022 5610ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($61K) 3 ALL PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAMP DADDY May30 Apr16       (vaughan edwar)CANNON DECLAN 120 4.50    
2  MY BUDDY B Jun04 Apr02       (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 12.00    
SCR  FREEDOM'S WAY Jun20 May15 Apr16 Feb19   (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 120 3.00 34% 2.00    
4  WINTERWOOD Mar04 Jan28       (brennan t)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 15.00    
5  FROOME (IRE) Jun18 Jun04 May14 Apr23 Apr02 (poulos dee)BAILEY CHEL-C 115 30.00    
6  AMERICAN HERO Jun30 Jun10 May14 Apr14 Mar12 (flint s)GRAHAM J 120 5.00 12% 7.50    
7  WATCH THE MUSIC Apr16         (hiles a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 20.00    
8  GROUP EIGHTEEN Jun03 May05 Apr07 Feb20 Jan28 (williamson b)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 20.00    
9  FORT DEFIANCE Jun12 Jan14       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
10  CREATIVE MIRACLE May21         (cox bra)DE CRUZ 122 2.00 12% 7.40    
SCR  OPEN ROAD Jun19 May20       (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 120 1.60 20% 4.00    
SCR  LESLIE CHOW May07 Apr02 Mar05 Feb10   (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 120 8.00 ★    
 
ELP-7   07/15/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  STELLAR GRACE Jun23 May12 Apr10 Feb17   (shirer a)GILLIGAN JACK 122 12.00    
2  PALM COTTAGE         (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 5.00 35% 1.90    
3  LITTLE BLAZE Jun11 May06 Apr13     (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 122 1.80 42% 1.40    
4  BABY BLUE EYES Jun12 May16 Apr23 Mar12 Feb26 (sims a)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00    
SCR  TALEOFREADYCHIANTI Jun18 May06 Apr22 Mar18 Feb19 (stewart da)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 10.00    
6  WINGS OF AN ANGEL Jun17 May21 May05 Mar06 Feb12 (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 3.50 ★    
7  MOLLIE KATE         (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 ★    
8  JUMAKAN BOURBON Jun18 May29 Apr27 Apr02 Mar12 (minnock g)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
9  DULCIMER DAME Jun17 May26 May10 Apr27 Mar26 (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00 ★    
 
ELP-8   07/15/2022 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ABSAM Jun18 Jun02 Apr27 Jan15   (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 122 15.00    
2  HOZIER Jun17 May03 Apr16     (brisset rodolphe)GRAHAM J 122 3.50    
3  HAIG POINT May20 Mar17 Jan08     (maker michael)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 10.00    
4  QUARI MASTER Jun13 May16 Apr10 Feb10   (lobo h)GARCIA MARTIN 120 15.00    
5  SOUNION Jun05 Mar18 Feb03     (lynch bria)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 4.00 5% 19.00    
6  RISK MANAGER May21 Apr23 Mar12 Jan30   (gut)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 122 6.00 ★    
7  VINTAGE PRINT         (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.00 9% 9.60    
8  PEEKACHO Jun30 Jun18 Apr29 Mar26 Feb23 (vance r)MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00 6% 17.00    
9  KOUFAX Jun02 May07 Feb28 Jan22   (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00    
10  HAWK OF WAR Jun20 May13 Apr21 Mar26 Feb10 (maker micha)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 4.50 52% 0.90    
SCR  PALACE KITTEN Jul02 May28 Apr26     (irion heath)ARRIETA REYNIER 122 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.