Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Great Falls
Sunday - July 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

GF-1   WIN (4/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/5)-(4/2/5) 6 $3.00 $18.00 
    DD (4/2/5)-(3/2/7/6) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
GF-2   WIN (3/2/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/7/6)-(3/2/7/6) 12 $3.00 $36.00 
GF-4   WIN (6/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/3)-(6/1/3) 6 $3.00 $18.00 
    TRI (6/1/3)-(6/1/3)-(6/1/3) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
GF-6   WIN (7/3/4/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/4/2)-(7/3/4/2) 12 $3.00 $36.00 
    TRI (7/3/4/2)-(7/3/4/2)-(7/3/4/2) 24 $2.00 $48.00 
GF-7   WIN (2/7/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/1/4)-(2/7/1/4) 12 $3.00 $36.00 
    TRI (2/7/1/4)-(2/7/1/4)-(2/7/1/4) 24 $2.00 $48.00 
GF-9   WIN (8/1/6/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/1/6/3)-(8/1/6/3) 12 $3.00 $36.00 
    TRI (8/1/6/3)-(8/1/6/3)-(8/1/6/3) 24 $2.00 $48.00 
GF-10   WIN (4/6/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/8)-(4/5/6/8) 9 $3.00 $27.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
GF-1   07/30/2023 3465ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AX 'S SHORE Jul08 Jun25 Jun18 Jun04 May27 (dennis cl)IRONEYES R 126 7.00    
  (by AXIOMATIC out of SOUNDLESS SHORE by LATIGO SHORE)
LOOPY DUDE Jul23 Jul15 Jun17 Jun09 May21 (nelson buckshot)GERVAIS M 122 4.00 15% 5.60    
  (by FIRST DUDE out of LOOPETY LOO by AFLEET ALEX)
CUTE RENEGADE Jul01 Jun16 May20 Apr30 Apr22 (ecoffey gil)FENNELL JERAMIE 122 2.50    
  (by JERANIMO out of CAMEO CUTIE by SLEWDLEDO)
MARGOT Jul23 Apr30 Mar14 Feb14 Jan15 (schindle)HERNANDEZ J 126 2.00 38% 1.60    
  (by KABORI out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SPRINKLES Jul16 Jul01       (matt l)LARSEN S 122 5.00 14% 6.10    
  (by SOL INVICTUS out of BETEMSTRAIGHT by RED)
 
GF-2   07/30/2023 3465ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OUTRIGHT Jul09 Jun10 May28 May20 Mar03 (ecoffey gil)FENNELL JERAMIE 126 5.00    
SINGANDCRYINDUBAI Jul15 Jun18 May21 May07 Mar26 (nelson buckshot)GAMEZ M 126 3.50 9% 10.70    
SAN GIORGIO Jul23 Jul16 Jun25 Jun09 May29 (warren kayla)GERVAIS M 126 1.60 52% 0.90    
MORO CHARLIE Jul15 Jun25 Jun11 May20 May14 (birdrattl)IRONEYES R 126 8.00    
BRUIN MAGIC Jul23 Jul08 Jun25 Apr11 Mar14 (schindle)HERNANDEZ J 126 4.00    
EYE CANDY RANDY Jul16 Jun18 Jun09 May21 May06 (birdrat)BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 126 10.00 7% 14.00    
HEREDIA BOXER Jul16 May29 May14 Apr15 Sep09 (birdrattl)BIRDRATTLER BARRY 126 10.00 8% 12.30    
 
GF-4   07/30/2023 3465ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($2K) Purse ($5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FLUSHING FLASH Jul23 Jul16 Jun16 Jun03 May21 (crooke)BIRDRATTLER E 126 3.50 9% 9.50    
BERACUDA HEART Jul23 Jul16 Jul31 Jul29   (birdrattl)IRONEYES R 126 6.00    
DARK LEOPARD Jul22 Jul16 Sep25 Sep10 Sep05 (fitzpatrick)FENNELL JERAMIE 126 8.00 5% 19.00    
OAKDALE ROAD Jul23 Jul16 Jun04 May21 Jan09 (conway )BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 122 3.00    
NINADAVINA Jul23 Jul16 Oct09 Jul30 Jul29 (birdratt)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00    
MOONSHINE MAX Jul22 Jul16 Jun25 Jun16 May27 (nelson buckshot)GERVAIS M 126 2.00 56% 0.80    
 
GF-6   07/30/2023 3465ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NIPAWIN Jul15 Jul31 Jul24 Jul17 May07 (schmit)BIRDRATTLER E 126 3.00    
THREE POINT CASH Jul22 May19 Jul31 Jul30 Jul24 (birdrattle)MCGOWAN M 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
PALACEDANCER Jul23 Jul16 May21 May20 May14 (birdrat)BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 121 2.50 22% 3.60    
RIDGEFIELD ROCKET Jul16 Sep18 Sep05 Jul23 Jul17 (birdrattler )JOHNSON SHANAE 126 6.00 5% 19.00    
MAKAH LANE Jul22 Jul16 Jun11 May19 Dec18 (birdratt)HERNANDEZ J 126 4.50    
PREDICATION Jul23 Jul09 Jun25 Jun03 May20 (birdrattler shawn)ROCK ZACH 126 8.00    
TUSCAN WARRIOR Jul30         (birdrattler nat)GERVAIS M 126 3.50 50% 1.00    
 
GF-7   07/30/2023 4620ft DIRT RC11 FAST Great Falls Turf Club Special Purse ($9.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FIRE WHEN READY Jul15 Jun11 Jun03 May21 May06 (matt wen)HERNANDEZ J 126 9.00 15% 5.80    
  (by EMPIRE WAY out of ARMED N DANGEROUS by GUN RUNNER)
ARBUCKLE OUTLAW Jul23 Jul16 Jun16 May20 May06 (birdrattl)IRONEYES R 126 3.00 46% 1.20    
  (by HOME OF THE BRAVE out of LIL RED RYDER by WILD HORSES)
STEALING HEARTS Jul16 Jun25 Jun18 May21 May20 (conway )BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 122 12.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of DEAR FAY by GHAZI)
SCOOTER'S BOY Jul23 Jul16 Jun25 Jun16 May29 (ecoffey gil)FENNELL JERAMIE 126 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FLATTER out of EK HASEENA by SONGANDAPRAYER)
HUG THE MUNNY Jul16 Jun25 Jun10 May14 Dec03 (schmit)BIRDRATTLER E 126 1.40    
  (by MUNNINGS out of HUG DOC by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
TOOTIE Jul23 Jul15 Jun25 Jun16 Jun03 (nelson buckshot)GERVAIS M 121 3.50    
  (by EUROEARS out of B G COUNTRY GIRL by CATIENUS)
TEXAS LONG BOW Jul23 Jul16 Jun25 Jun18 May29 (nelson buckshot)GAMEZ M 126 8.00 15% 5.50    
  (by CROSSBOW out of DETERMINED DARIA by TALE OF THE CAT)
 
GF-9   07/30/2023 5490ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($5K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
XTREME LYRA Jul22 Jun25 Jun04 May21 May14 (schindle)HERNANDEZ J 121 10.00 21% 3.80    
CARRIZO SPRINGS Jul22 Jul16 Jun09 Jun03 May20 (nelson buckshot)GERVAIS M 122 5.00    
DIXON TUFF Jun04 May05 Apr11 Mar29 Mar18 (matt l)LARSEN S 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
REDDISH Jul22 Jul16 Sep24 Sep05 Jul31 (meineke jess)JOHNSON SHANAE 126 3.00    
TWO SOCKS MAC Jul23 Jul15 Jul09 Jul02 May13 (dennis clif)FENNELL JERAMIE 126 12.00    
FORGOTTEN VOWS Jul22 Jul15 Jun24 Jun17 Jun04 (fantin)BIRDRATTLER E 126 15.00 11% 8.30    
IMA CARPE DIEM Jul23 Jul15 May21 May06 Mar25 (warren ka)IRONEYES R 117 15.00    
HADLEYS CHARM Jul23 Jul15 Jul31 Jul29 Jul24 (birdrat)BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 121 1.20 48% 1.10    
 
GF-10   07/30/2023 3465ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($5.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HAYNESPUN Jul23 Jul16 Jun16 May28 May14 (warren ka)IRONEYES R 121 2.50    
SANGRE AZUL Mar25 Mar03 Feb10 Jan06 Dec10 (ecoffey gil)FENNELL JERAMIE 126 4.50    
SCR  BRITE TAN Jun18 Jun04 Apr01 Mar13 Feb21 (ecoffey )HERNANDEZ J 126 20.00    
ABRAA JABRAA Jul22 Jul15 Jun24 Jun11 May27 (birdrat)BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 126 3.00 68% 0.50    
BIG BLUE NOTE Jul16 May29 Apr24 Mar29 Mar04 (matt l)LARSEN S 126 3.50    
FOREST SONG Jul23 Jul16 Jul31 Jul24 Jun26 (schmit)BIRDRATTLER E 126 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SERENGETI SIX Jul23 Jul16 May27 Apr30 Mar24 (lawrence jos)JOHNSON SHANAE 126 10.00    
CECILIA'S HOPE Jul15 Jun17 Mar25 Mar05 Feb24 (crooked dale)ROCK ZACH 126 12.00 5% 19.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.