Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Saturday - October 19, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-5   WIN (3/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/2)-(3/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/2)-(3/6/2)-(3/6/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-6   WIN (3/7/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/2/5)-(3/7/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/2/5)-(3/7/2/5)-(3/7/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/7/2/5)-(3/7/1/4)-(3/6/4/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
ARP-7   WIN (3/7/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/1/4)-(3/7/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/1/4)-(3/7/1/4)-(3/7/1/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/7/1/4)-(3/6/4/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
ARP-8   WIN (3/6/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/4/1)-(3/6/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/4/1)-(3/6/4/1)-(3/6/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-5   10/19/2024 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($11.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STAND BY TIME Oct05 Sep22 Sep13 Aug27 May20 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 122 8.00    
2  CINCO GAL Sep21 Sep06 Aug10 Jul21 Jun30 (hibdon n)HAAR NATHAN 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  MAYA D Sep27 Aug04 Jun23 Apr23 Apr10 (martinez o)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 2.00 54% 0.80    
4  SKYLAR'S FIRE Sep28 Sep16 Aug31 Aug24 Aug17 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 124 2.50    
5  IMA HAPPY DANCER Oct04 Sep21 Jul10 Jun19 Oct22 (rushton stet)AGUILAR DANIEL 121 4.50    
6  JUST A SEC Oct04 Sep11 Aug26 Aug06 Jul29 (hall monk)RAMOS B 121 3.50 18% 4.50    
 
ARP-6   10/19/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($11.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PROOF OF PURCHASE Sep20 Aug29 Jul24 Jul03 Jun23 (rushton s)MEDINA ANGEL 122 10.00    
2  SEA BREEZE BOY Oct06 Aug30 Aug04 Jul13 Jul06 (lavanway days)CARDOSO DAVID 124 5.00 15% 5.60    
3  OUR BUBBY BOY Oct04 Sep22 Sep27 Sep18 Sep06 (rushton s)IRONEYES R 116 3.50 37% 1.70    
4  DAX A DREAMING Sep21 Sep01 Aug18 Jul20 Jun29 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 122 4.50    
5  COLONEL PUNCH Oct05 Sep21 Sep06 Aug18 Aug11 (lavanway d)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  JUST N JACK Sep22 Sep02 Aug24 Aug18 Jul27 (haar j)RAMOS B 122 8.00    
7  OBSIDIAN GOLD Sep22 Aug31 Aug16 Aug11 Jul13 (mitchell chris )ARANA MINOR 124 2.50 27% 2.80    
 
ARP-7   10/19/2024 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RANDOM AFFAIR Oct04 Sep13 Sep01 Aug24 May03 (burns dale)HAAR NATHAN 124 6.00 12% 7.30    
2  RIVERSPORT Oct05 Sep28 Sep13 Sep07 Sep02 (ibanez alberto)ARANA MINOR 124 8.00    
3  SUEZ Oct05 Sep14 Sep07 Aug07 Jul10 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 2.00 35% 1.80    
4  BRON AND THE BROW Oct04 Sep15 Sep08 Aug03 Aug26 (childs russe)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  PAYNTER'S BOY Oct04 Sep13 Sep01 Jun30 Jun02 (rushton te)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 6.00    
6  FUNNY ACTOR Oct12 Sep28 Oct27 Oct22 Oct08 (esquibel mark)RAMOS B 124 10.00    
7  TOOTHLESS WONDER Oct06 Sep01 Aug18 Jul14 Jun29 (scudder rick)NUNNALLY BLAKE 124 4.50 17% 4.80    
 
ARP-8   10/19/2024 5610ft DIRT RC11 FAST Columbine Purse ($38.15K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOVELY LOLA Sep29 Sep08 Aug25 Aug11 Jul14 (ortega joe)RAMOS B 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FLATTER out of ROYALTY by BIRDSTONE)
2  BEHOLD THAT WORD Oct06 Sep21 Jul18 Oct03 Sep19 (rushton s)IRONEYES R 124 5.00    
  (by BEHOLD DE BUY out of FINAL WORD by CLOSING ARGUMENT)
3  SILVER LIGHTENING Sep29 Sep07 Aug18 Jul28 Aug27 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.00 50% 1.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of COME FOLLOW ME by FOXTRAIL)
4  LORRAINE'S LEGACY Oct05 Aug25 Jul27 Jul05 Jun03 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 124 3.50 7% 13.20    
  (by INCLUDE out of LOVING LORRAINE by BERNSTEIN)
5  BRASHANKNOWIT Sep06 Aug09 Jul07 Apr21 Mar14 (long vaughn)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 6.00    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of BOLD BIRDIE by BIRDSTONE)
6  TENNESSEE MOON Oct05 Sep08 Jul13 Jun30 Jun23 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 4.00 15% 5.70    
  (by RANSOM THE MOON out of TENNESSEE WHISKEY by PERSIAN TURBAN (IRE))
SCR  ZIPPIN PIPPIN Sep29 Sep08 Jul14 Jun30 Jun08 (hadley tori)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 4.50    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of PROUD DAME by PROUD ACCOLADE)
SCR  VIRTUALLY Sep08 Aug11 Jun29 May04 Apr13 (rushton stetson)HARR KELSI 124 10.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of UNOSTRIKE by MACHO UNO)
9  THUNDERS ROCKNROLL Sep21 Aug31 Aug10 Jul13 Jun30 (kenney rya)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 6.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of THUNDER AND HONEY by THUNDER GULCH)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.