Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Tillamook County Fair
Wednesday - August 09, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TIL-1   WIN (2/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/4)-(2/5/4)-(2/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
TIL-3   WIN (5) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
TIL-5   WIN (6) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
TIL-6   WIN (2/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/4)-(2/5/4)-(2/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
TIL-7   WIN (1/6/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    TRI (1/6/2/7)-(1/6/2/7)-(1/6/2/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (1/6/2/7)-(6/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TIL-8   WIN (6/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/4)-(6/3/4)-(6/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TIL-1   08/09/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST CLM3200NW1Y ($3.2K) Purse ($5K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PHANTOMS BOOK Jun24 Jun18 Jun10 Aug28 Aug19 (mcdevitt t)PRECIADO A 126 3.00    
2  MY LITE NITE Jul04 Jun24 Jun18 Aug11 Jul15 (hof d)SMITH E 126 2.00 45% 1.20    
3  POSEIDON'S MAGIC Jul23 Jul15 Oct02 Sep25 Sep10 (dennis cli)JIMENEZ SANTIAGO 126 6.00    
4  AT U LOVER Jun24 Aug21 Aug11 Jul03 Jun21 (stillwell tuc)LOPEZ E 126 4.00 5% 19.00    
5  CHIEFS LIL PEARL Jun18 Aug27 Aug10 Jul04 Jun21 (boyle )RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 3.00 33% 2.00    
 
TIL-3   08/09/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST CLM5000NW2L ($5K) Purse ($5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LONGFORD Jul12 Jun18 Jun11 Jun10 Aug11 (guerrero di)GUERRERO C 126 5.00    
3  TOM'S MOON Jul23 Jul16 Jun16 Jun03 May13 (dennis )BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 126 4.00    
4  AMANDA'S BEACH BOY         (stillw)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 12.00    
5  LUKE'S PLACE Jul12 Jul04 Jun25 Jun18 Jul13 (hof d)SMITH E 126 2.00 54% 0.90    
SCR  GATO NEGRO Jul12 Jul02 Jun11 May13 Apr23 (gilmour j)JENSEN P 124 1.60 24% 3.10    
SCR  JHAWK FLYER Jun25 Jun11 Aug11 Jul14 Jun28 (stewart la)CRUZ DIAZ 126 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
TIL-5   08/09/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST MSW5000 ($0K) Purse ($5K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  ZEVA DEE Jul28 Jul14 Jul02 Jun03 May13 (potts ashley)SMITH E 124 2.50    
  (by RAISED A SECRET out of MISS FLORIELO by CONQUISTADOR CIELO)
3  ZEPHYR CAT Jul01 Aug21 Jul09 Jun17   (hurley de)JENSEN P 126 10.00    
  (by SIERRA SUNSET out of STARRY CAT by TABASCO CAT)
4  MISCHIEF MAME Jul08 Jun11 Jun03 May21 May01 (harris john)LOPEZ E 124 3.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of MAME'S FLAME by HEATSEEKER (IRE))
6  MANUELS TABLE         (mcdevitt t)PRECIADO A 124 8.00 22% 3.60    
  (by PEPPERED CAT out of TABLE FOR ONE by RIO VERDE)
SCR  MADAME CAUSEWAY Jul22         (lyons )RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 2.00 33% 2.10    
  (by KING OF JAZZ out of GALLANT TALENT by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
SCR  SIXINTHECITY         (hoover cin)CRUZ DIAZ 126 6.00 22% 3.60    
  (by SIXTHIRTEEN out of CHARGING CITY by KANSAS CITY)
 
TIL-6   08/09/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST MSW5000 ($0K) Purse ($5K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPORTS FOR WOMEN Jul04 Jun17 May26 May04 Apr09 (lyons kendra)CONTRERAS CRUZ 124 2.50    
  (by BOISTEROUS out of HADARRA by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
2  SHORT JOURNEY Jun24 Jun03 Mar12 Feb25 Feb21 (magallanes)JIMENEZ SANTIAGO 124 1.60 61% 0.60    
  (by CAPITAL ACCOUNT out of FREEDOM JOURNEY by GOOD JOURNEY)
3  A STORM TOO SOON Jul02 Jun11 Jun03     (potts ash)IRONEYES R 124 4.00    
  (by HARBOR THE GOLD out of PARKERS DELIGHT by PARKER'S STORM CAT)
4  WARNING SOUND Jul01 Jun17 Aug27 Aug19 Aug07 (hurley denni)SMITH E 126 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MR SPEAKER out of SOUL SOUND by ELUSIVE WARNING)
5  ELLE VICTOIRE Jul01 Jun17 Aug27 Aug06 Jul11 (crystal dusti)LOPEZ E 126 8.00 10% 8.70    
  (by BRAVE VICTORY out of CONGO KAYE by CONGAREE)
6  CHEDOODLE RYLEE Jul02 Jun11       (lawrence heath)WEBB B 124 10.00    
  (by MR. RANCHO VISTA out of CHEDOODLEJAN by GRINDSTONE)
 
TIL-7   08/09/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST CLM3200NW1Y ($3.2K) Purse ($6K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FOOLISH TO DECEIVE Jul04 Jun17 Sep04 Sep02 Aug12 (crystal dusti)LOPEZ E 126 2.50 59% 0.70    
2  CAPES HOT ROCKET Jun24 Jun17 Aug26 Aug21 Jul15 (hurley denn)GUERRERO C 126 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  BEING A BOSS Jul04 Jun25 Aug11 Jul03 Jun18 (harris)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 3.00    
4  DARK LEOPARD Jul30 Jul22 Jul16 Sep25 Sep10 (dennis cli)PRECIADO A 126 10.00    
5  HASHTAG BAE Jun03 May20 Aug14 Jul24 Jun26 (hoover cin)CRUZ DIAZ 126 3.00    
6  CRESCENT WILDCAT Jun24 Jun17 Jun09 Aug26 Aug20 (crystal dust)SMITH E 126 4.00 6% 16.20    
7  PACKRAT BRANT Jul12 Jun25 Jun10 Aug11   (stewart larr)CONTRERAS CRUZ 126 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
TIL-8   08/09/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST CLM5000NW2L ($5K) Purse ($6K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  R HAPPY PLACE Jul12 Jun10 Jun04 Apr10 Mar18 (lawrence hea)CONTRERAS CRUZ 126 6.00    
2  STEEL NERVES Jul12 Jul01 Jun17 Aug21 Jul16 (hurley denni)SMITH E 126 4.00    
3  FLY PATTI FLY Jul12 Jul02 Jun16 May27 May14 (lawrence heath)WEBB B 124 2.00 22% 3.50    
4  UNBRIDLED BIRDIE Jul12 Jul01 Jun24 Jun27 Jun21 (goode cry)JENSEN P 126 8.00 16% 5.40    
5  MISSY PARKER Jul01 Jun17 Jun10 Aug26 Aug19 (crystal dusti)LOPEZ E 126 4.50    
6  OUR GIRL ASHLEY Jul14 Jun03 May13     (hof bi)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 124 2.50 26% 2.90    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.