Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Saratoga
Thursday - August 18, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
SAR-1   08/18/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SENSIBLECONCLUSION Aug11 Jul14 Jun18 May20 Apr24 (barker edward)FRANCO MANUEL 118 1.40 26% 2.90    
2  LUCKY MUCHO MAN Jul22 Jul02 Jun17 May20 Apr22 (ryerson james )LEZCANO JOSE 118 4.50 19% 4.30    
3  UNCLE WATER FLOW Jul10 May20 Apr07 Mar11   (persaud eddi)CASTELLANO J 118 2.50 ★    
4  UNCLE BRUCE Jul31 Jul09 May20 May06   (brown br)GOMEZ ANTONIO 113 15.00    
5  REUNION TOUR Feb13 Jan22       (ferraro jame)SAMUEL L 124 12.00 16% 5.10    
SCR  OLYMPIC DREAMS Jun30         (clement chr)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 3.00 ★    
 
SAR-2   08/18/2022 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OK HONEY Jul15 Jun02 May05 Mar26 Feb13 (rodriguez gust)LEZCANO JOSE 124 5.00 11% 7.80    
2  A BIT O'IRISH SASS Jul20 Jun23 Jun02 May05 Apr08 (schosberg richard)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50 ★    
3  EPONA'S DREAM Jun02 Apr23 Mar13 Feb18 Jan20 (hennig mark)ROSARIO JOEL 122 4.00 ★    
4  CARAGATE Jul21 Jun24 May27 Apr09 Feb21 (friedman mit)CASTELLANO J 120 1.60    
5  IFIHADACHANCE Jun02 Apr08 Mar13 Feb18   (falcone rober)FRANCO MANUEL 122 6.00 12% 7.10    
6  BUSTIN BAY Jul15 Jun19 May13 Apr23 Mar26 (arriaga anton)ORTIZ JR 122 5.00 38% 1.60    
 
SAR-3   08/18/2022 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHESAWILDJOKER Jul15 Jan22       (donk david)ORTIZ L 118 2.00    
1A  SASSY MELISSA Jul22 May27 Apr14 Mar11   (englehart jere)ROSARIO JOEL 124 2.00 28% 2.50    
2  ITSAKEYPER Jul22 May27 Jan29     (albertra)GOMEZ ANTONIO 117 15.00    
3  DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS Jun04 May19 May08     (jones eduardo )LEZCANO JOSE 122 6.00 12% 7.20    
4  GET THE CANDY Jul22 Jun26 May27     (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00    
5  FONTANAFREDDA Jul29 Jun11 Apr14     (bond harold )CASTELLANO J 120 4.00 14% 6.30    
6  JILL'S A HOT MESS Jul22 May27 May19     (lucas bonnie)VELAZQUEZ R 122 2.50 ★    
SCR  BEAUTIFUL KAREN Aug06 Mar25 Feb27 Feb06   (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 122 1.80 17% 4.90    
 
SAR-4   08/18/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Handicap ($25K) Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALCOOLS Jul16 Jun19 May19 Feb18 Jan14 (englehart jere)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 4.50    
2  MEXICAN WONDER BOY Aug10 Jun19 Jun03 May22 May06 (camejo m)FRANCO MANUEL 124 2.00 9% 9.90    
SCR  LONG TERM THINKING Jul22 Jul16 Jul01 Jun05 May08 (avila c)CASTELLANO J 118 12.00 8% 11.70    
4  STAGE LEFT Jul23 Jun19 May21 Apr21 Jan22 (kantarmaci mert)CANCEL ERIC 125 3.00 47% 1.10    
5  FLAMINGO HAWK Jul16 Jun22 Jun12 Apr16   (falcone rober)ORTIZ JR 121 2.50 ★    
6  REJECTED AGAIN Jul23 Jun23 May19 Apr30 Apr07 (rodriguez r)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
7  ABSENTEE Jul25 Jun19 May23     (ramirez silvin)LEZCANO JOSE 117 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
SAR-5   08/18/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($83K) 2 ALL PT- 3:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TSURIS         (stewart dal)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 4.00 ★    
2  CHILDERS         (cox h)CASTELLANO J 119 2.50 34% 1.90    
SCR  HEY EUGENE         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 ★    
4  UNCLE DAN         (martin carlos)VELAZQUEZ R 119 6.00    
5  CLEAR THE DECK Jul21 Jun26 Jun08     (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 3.00 42% 1.40    
6  FORBIDDEN SECRET Jul21         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 119 4.50    
7  RAKA RAKA CRUZ         (cruz lenin)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 20.00 ★    
 
SAR-6   08/18/2022 5610ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($88K) 2 F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BERNING HONOR Jul27         (schettino domi)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 10.00    
2  APRIL FIRST         (donk david)ORTIZ L 119 6.00 8% 11.40    
3  DREAM ON CARA Aug03 Jul04       (friedman mit)CASTELLANO J 119 8.00 ★    
4  RECOGNIZE Jul27 Jun25       (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 119 2.50 11% 7.80    
5  SARAH'S DIALED IN         (dini mike)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 11% 7.80    
6  LUNA LOCA Jul27         (schosberg ric)VELAZQUEZ R 119 12.00    
7  BERNT AGAIN Aug03         (schettino dominic)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
8  ORANGE FREEZE         (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 119 2.00 49% 1.00    
 
SAR-7   08/18/2022 3630ft TURF RC4 FIRM Claiming ($35K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STEELERSFANFORLIFE Jul23 Jul01 Jun05 May14 Jan09 (gyarmati leah)LUZZI J 122 12.00    
2  VETERANS BEACH Jul17 Jun18 May21     (dini mike)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00 18% 4.70    
3  CHARLES CHROME Apr09 Mar05       (jacobson davi)ORTIZ JR 122 1.40 43% 1.30    
4  TRUEBELIEVE Jul17 Jun30 May28 May05 Apr08 (barrera oscar)CASTILLO AMIN 122 20.00 7% 14.20    
5  LOADED JOE Jul23 Jul01 May14 May05   (dip)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 122 20.00    
6  BOOM BOOM KABOOM Jul01 Jun05 May19 Apr28 Mar31 (weaver george)CANCEL ERIC 124 6.00 ★    
7  IMMORTALIZATION Jul28 Jul01 Jun17 Apr21 Jan28 (hemin)DIAZ RAFAEL 124 2.50    
SCR  CATHEDRAL BEACH Aug03 Jun03 May07 Mar20 Mar05 (barker edward)FRANCO MANUEL 120 1.80    
SCR  LEDDY Aug03         (rice linda)RIDER TBA 120 2.00 11% 8.40    
 
SAR-8   08/18/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($115K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PERCEIVED Jul21 Jun16 May15 Apr10 Feb26 (rodriguez rudy)ROSARIO JOEL 125 4.00 21% 3.80    
2  COMPLETE AGENDA Jul22 May14 Apr21 Feb26 Jan29 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00    
3  NABOKOV Jul02 May15 Apr14     (brown c)ORTIZ JR 120 3.00 9% 9.90    
4  WINIT Jul08 Jun10       (kimmel john )CASTELLANO J 120 2.50 16% 5.30    
5  WARRIOR JOHNY Jul04 Jun18 May07 Apr14 Mar04 (bauer phili)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 4.50 32% 2.10    
6  UNBRIDLED BOMBER Jul02 Jun03 May07 Apr08 Feb05 (ryerson james )ORTIZ L 120 15.00    
7  VASARIANO Jun24 Jun10       (cash norma)HUMPHREY WILLIAM 118 20.00 ★    
 
SAR-9   08/18/2022 5280ft TURF RC2 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($150K) 3 F PT- 5:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLDEN ROCKET Jul23 Jul03 Jun03 Jan12   (farro pa)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 15.00    
2  ROBYN AND ELI Jul16 Jun19       (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 118 5.00 ★    
3  ROYAL DANCER Jul23 Jun19 May12 Apr14   (nevin michell)ORTIZ JR 118 4.50    
4  DREAM CENTRAL Jul20 Jun19 May30 Apr29 Jan06 (sciacca gary)CASTELLANO J 123 2.50 21% 3.80    
5  HOWDYOUMAKEURMONEY Jul09 Jun19 Apr30 Mar26 Mar05 (trombetta mich)ROSARIO JOEL 123 8.00 14% 6.40    
6  BUSY MORNING Jun25 May12       (abreu r)LEZCANO JOSE 118 2.00 39% 1.50    
7  TARA DANCER Jul16         (de horacio)ORTIZ L 118 10.00 ★    
8  EROS'S GIRL Jul25 Jul04 Jun06 Feb02 Jan15 (ferraro ant)NAVARRO KEVIN 123 20.00    
 
SAR-10   08/18/2022 5610ft TURF RC0 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  URAGANO Jul15 May30 May06 Apr08 Mar05 (breen j)LEZCANO JOSE 118 2.50 28% 2.60    
2  ABLETON Jun17 May13 Feb19 Jan08   (kimmel c)CANCEL ERIC 118 10.00 ★    
3  PHOEBE'S FROSTY Jul29 Jan16       (baker ch)GOMEZ ANTONIO 113 15.00    
4  SELL SOMETHING Jul29 Jun23 May28 Apr29 Mar11 (sciacca gar)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 15.00    
5  RUSH TO HONOR Jul15 Jun02 Apr01 Feb13 Jan06 (englehart ch)CASTELLANO J 124 6.00 15% 5.60    
6  LOOKIN GRAND Jul09 May30       (baker charlto)VELAZQUEZ R 118 3.50 20% 4.00    
7  TOGA DANCER Jun23 Apr22       (nevin michelle)CARMOUCHE K 118 8.00    
8  LOZ Jun30 Apr24 Mar19     (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 118 3.00 16% 5.10    
9  CASH BAIL Jun29         (meadow e)USKE S 118 50.00    
10  MARIE'S TUFF SON Jul04         (goodwin gabriel)LUZZI J 118 50.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.