Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Saratoga
Saturday - July 16, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
SAR-1   07/16/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NEVER CHANGE May20 Mar26       (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 118 2.50 34% 1.90    
2  READYSEEKGO May27 May01 Mar24 Feb20 Feb03 (antonucci jena )CARMOUCHE K 124 10.00 9% 10.10    
3  FIERY HEART Jun12 Apr03 Mar06 Jan06   (hennig mark)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
4  KNOT THE ONE Jun05         (pletcher todd)FRANCO MANUEL 118 4.00 ★    
5  NORTH POLE Jul01 Jun05 May08     (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00 11% 8.50    
6  PSYCHIC INCOME         (abreu r)ORTIZ L 124 5.00 23% 3.40    
7  MISTICAL CURLIN Jun26 Jan29       (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00    
 
SAR-2   07/16/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CLOSING DEALS Jun18 Apr21 Mar19 Feb20 Jan23 (rodriguez rudy)ORTIZ L 120 4.00 18% 4.70    
2  THIEF OF HEARTS Jun18 May28 May08 Mar06 Jan28 (rubley k)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 8.00    
3  NEW YORK BANKER Jun18 May27 May06 Apr03 Feb18 (noda orlando)ORTIZ JR 124 6.00 ★    
4  QUICK MUNNY May05 Apr15 Feb24 Jan28   (barkley )SANTANA JR 124 3.00 12% 7.10    
5  CUPIDS GIRL Jun23 Jun05 May15 Apr09 Feb25 (ryerson t)DAVIS DYLAN 120 5.00    
6  TEA OLIVE Jun12         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 118 4.50 19% 4.40    
7  CHLOE ROSE Jun18 May27 Apr28 Mar04 Feb04 (rodriguez gustavo)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50 26% 2.90    
 
SAR-3   07/16/2022 5610ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($88K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHATLOVELOOKSLIKE Jun04 Apr10       (pletcher todd )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 4.50 23% 3.30    
2  TARA DANCER         (de horacio)ORTIZ L 118 12.00    
3  WICKED LADY Jun16         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
4  ROBYN AND ELI Jun19         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 118 2.50 31% 2.20    
5  CERRETTA May21 Apr23 Feb19     (bond james)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
6  SARAH'S SPLENDOR Jun04         (abreu jorge )GEROUX FLORENT 118 15.00    
7  CAPE COD CAUSEWAY May12 Apr10 Jan06     (hennig mark)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 15.00    
8  SARATOGA CHROME Jun04 Apr28       (nevin mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 18% 4.70    
9  ARISAEMA Jun04 Apr10       (abreu r)LEZCANO JOSE 118 8.00 ★    
10  SUCCULENT Jun25 Apr14 Mar20     (donk david)DAVIS DYLAN 118 20.00    
11  JOCOSITY         (mott william )ORTIZ JR 118 10.00    
12  SALS DREAM GIRL May12         (gargan danny)ROSARIO JOEL 118 6.00 7% 13.50    
SCR  CAN'T FOOL ME Apr24 Apr10 Feb05     (de h)SANTANA JR 118 15.00    
 
SAR-4   07/16/2022 5940ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RED REVOLUTION Jun16 May01 Mar25 Feb25 Feb05 (falcone robert )CARMOUCHE K 120 8.00    
2  HIGHER QUALITY Jun11 Apr16       (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 123 1.00 66% 0.50    
3  SCOTTO Jun30 Jun16       (parker joseph)CANCEL ERIC 123 30.00    
4  EAGLE IN LOVE Jun16 Apr08 Mar19 Feb03   (atras ro)SANTANA JR 120 5.00 5% 19.00    
5  IT'S GRAVY Apr01         (breen j)ORTIZ L 123 6.00 ★    
SCR  KARL CARES Jun25 May30 Apr09 Mar20 Feb26 (ryan s)SAEZ LUIS 120 15.00 ★    
7  B C GLORY DAYS Jul09 May21 Apr22 Feb27 Jan14 (barrera )GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 15.00    
8  CRYO Jul01 May30 Apr02     (morey willi)MCCARTHY TREVOR 123 4.00 6% 17.10    
 
SAR-5   07/16/2022 5610ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($95K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIMPLY Jun21         (buckley jonathan )SAEZ LUIS 125 15.00    
SCR  DANGEROUS EDGE Jul02 Jun16 May28 Apr07 Mar20 (atras rob)RIDER TBA 123 15.00    
2  BARREL OF QUESTS Jun19 May13 Apr24 Apr07 Mar19 (donk david)DAVIS DYLAN 120 15.00    
3  FRONT LINE DANCER Jun24 May30       (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 120 4.50    
4  LITTLE MADDY BROWN Jun29 Jun14 May31     (torelli stacy)BAEZ JOSE 125 30.00 5% 19.00    
5  MR. KRINGLE Jun18 May13 Feb27 Feb05 Jan14 (terranova john)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 6.00 10% 9.50    
6  CUT THE CORD Jun27 Jun08 May16 Mar31 Mar19 (englehart je)BRIDGMOHAN X 120 15.00    
7  SPETTRO Jun18 May28       (morley thomas)CANCEL ERIC 120 12.00    
8  SHUTTERS         (brown c)ROSARIO JOEL 125 5.00    
9  RALLY SQUIRREL Jun24 May28 Apr30 Feb17 Jan08 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 3.50 8% 12.00    
10  MARINARA SAUCED Jun19 May21       (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 118 4.00 22% 3.60    
11  CITIZEN K May21 Apr28       (de horacio)ORTIZ L 123 12.00    
SCR  BOSSMAKINBOSSMOVES Jun24 May30 May08 Apr14 Mar25 (schosberg ric)VELAZQUEZ R 120 6.00    
SCR  GREAT WORKOUT Jul04 May05 Apr16 Mar19 Feb05 (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 123 2.00 35% 1.80    
 
SAR-6   07/16/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FLAMINGO HAWK Jun22 Jun12 Apr16     (joseph saffie)ORTIZ JR 122 3.00 50% 1.00    
2  IN SKY WE TRUST Jun11 May21 Mar01 Feb05   (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.50    
3  CHRIS AND DAVE Jun18 May29 May06 Mar25 Feb10 (englehar)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 8.00 7% 13.00    
4  DOUBLE SHOT Jun16 May21 Apr03 Mar19 Feb13 (breen j)ORTIZ L 124 6.00    
5  LONG TERM THINKING Jul01 Jun05 May08 Apr09 Mar13 (diodoro )SANTANA JR 124 4.50    
6  MUSICAL AMERICA Jun30 Jun18 May29 May21 Apr30 (jones eduard)HARKIE K 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MR. PETE Jun23 May22 May06 Apr24 Mar18 (davis edmun)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 15.00 ★    
8  ALCOOLS Jun19 May19 Feb18 Jan14   (rice linda)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 2.50 10% 9.50    
 
SAR-7   07/16/2022 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DISCO PHAROAH Jun19 May21 Apr16 Mar05   (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 126 10.00    
2  NOVA RAGS Jun19         (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 122 12.00    
SCR  FITZPATRICK Jun19 May21 Apr28 Mar05 Feb05 (hennig mark)CARMOUCHE K 124 30.00    
SCR  ZOOMER May22 May07 Mar26 Feb26 Jan23 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 124 10.00 ★    
5  REINVESTMENT RISK May07 Apr09 Feb26     (brown c)ORTIZ JR 124 0.60 39% 1.50    
6  ANSWER IN May14 Mar26 Feb19     (falcone robert)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 12.00 23% 3.40    
7  RIVER DOG Jun04 May07 Apr16     (breen j)ORTIZ L 126 20.00 7% 13.30    
8  SIBELIUS May28 Apr30 Apr02 Feb27 Jan08 (o'dwyer jere)GEROUX FLORENT 124 15.00    
9  BABY YODA Jun10 May05 Apr14 Feb12   (mott i)ROSARIO JOEL 122 4.50 ★    
 
SAR-8   07/16/2022 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Grade I Stake/Handicap Purse ($500K) 4UP M/F PT- 5:03
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (IRE) May21 Apr16       (brown c)ORTIZ L 120 3.00 ★    
  (by UNKNOWN out of SEALIFE by SEA THE STARS (IRE))
2  CREATIVE FLAIR (IRE)         (appleby charles)SPENCER P 120 8.00    
  (by DUBAWI (IRE) out of HIDDEN GOLD by KEY TO CONTENT)
3  BLEECKER STREET Jun10 May06 Mar12 Feb05 Jan08 (brown c)ORTIZ JR 122 1.20 26% 2.80    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of LEMON LIQUEUR by EXCHANGE RATE)
4  ROUGIR (FR) Jun10 May14       (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 3.00 ★    
  (by TERRITORIES out of SUMMER MOON (FR) by UNKNOWN)
5  DALIKA (GER) Jun05         (stall al)SANTANA JR 118 15.00 10% 9.20    
  (by PASTORIUS (GER) out of DRAWN TO RUN (IRE) by HURRICANE RUN (IRE))
6  IN ITALIAN (GB) Jun11 May07 Mar05 Jan12   (brown c)ROSARIO JOEL 118 6.00 17% 5.00    
  (by DUBAWI out of FLORENTINA by REDOUTE'S CHOICE (AUS))
 
SAR-9   07/16/2022 5940ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($115K) 3 ALL PT- 5:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SETNA THE WISE May18 Apr16 Mar03     (barkley jason)LEZCANO JOSE 122 12.00    
1A  DRIPPING GOLD Jun18         (mcgaughey clau)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 12.00    
2  ROYAL SPIRIT Jun12 Apr02 Feb05 Jan02   (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00 ★    
2B  MO REWARDS         (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 118 6.00 9% 9.50    
3  FOREVER SOUPER Jun10 Apr09 Mar06     (casse mark)VELAZQUEZ R 122 8.00 ★    
4  ANALOGY Jun18 Apr23 Mar12     (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 122 10.00    
5  SUMMER ANTHEM Jun04 Apr29 Feb26     (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 10.00    
6  CREDIT EVENT Jun18 Apr16 Jan20     (brown c)ORTIZ JR 122 4.00 15% 5.60    
7  CONSTITUTIONLAWYER Jun03 Apr02 Feb05 Jan02   (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 122 15.00    
8  PARQUETRY Jun18 May05 Feb12 Jan02   (tagg barclay)CANCEL ERIC 122 30.00    
9  FORT TICONDEROGA Jun24         (mcgaughey clau)ORTIZ L 122 2.00 16% 5.10    
10  DAUNT Jun04 May05       (ribaudo rob)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 10.00    
SCR  WOLFE COUNTY Jun24 Jun09 Mar12 Feb12   (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 122 20.00    
SCR  NAVAL AVIATOR Jun19 May21 Apr29 Apr09   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.00 38% 1.60    
 
SAR-10   07/16/2022 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Grade III Stake/Handicap Purse ($175K) 2 ALL PT- 6:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOPPY O May20         (casse mark)DAVIS DYLAN 120 15.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of PAPPASCAT by SCAT DADDY)
2  MAJOR DUDE Jun18         (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 120 10.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of MARY RITA by DISTORTED HUMOR)
3  GREAT NAVIGATOR Jun04         (owens jr)RENDON JAIRO 120 12.00    
  (by SEA WIZARD out of ALL EVEN by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
4  FORTE May27         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 120 2.50 33% 2.10    
  (by VIOLENCE out of QUEEN CAROLINE by BLAME)
5  CURLY JACK Jun02         (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00 19% 4.20    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of CONNIE AND MICHAEL by ROMAN RULER)
6  MO STRIKE Jun19         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 8.00 ★    
  (by UNCLE MO out of FEATHERBED by SMART STRIKE)
7  PROVE RIGHT Jun26 Jun08       (chapman )SANTANA JR 120 30.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of JOE'SGOLDENHOLIDAY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
8  I'M WIDE AWAKE Jun24         (dutrow anthony)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 20.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of STELLA PERFORMANCE by TRAPPE SHOT)
9  ANDIAMO A FIRENZE Jun03         (breen j)ORTIZ L 120 3.50 13% 6.90    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of MY EVERY WISH by LANGFUHR)
10  ROMAN GIANT Jun30 Jun09 May19 Apr28   (asmussen steve)LEZCANO JOSE 120 20.00 11% 7.90    
  (by CARPE DIEM out of BESTINTHEBUSINESS by GHOSTZAPPER)
11  PUTTHEBLAMEONME Jun15         (englehart je)BRIDGMOHAN X 120 30.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of BLAME KRIS by BLAME)
12  VALENZAN DAY Jun09 May12       (rodriguez rudy)ROSARIO JOEL 120 6.00    
  (by KHOZAN out of RADICAL GRACE by UTOPIA)
 
SAR-11   07/16/2022 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Claiming ($35K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LEMON TAFFY Jun17         (henry ne)DAVIS A 123 50.00    
2  SYNONYMOUS Jun19 May15 Apr14     (pregman joh)MCCARTHY TREVOR 125 20.00    
3  NOBLE ENTERPRISE Jun19 Apr27 Mar24 Feb24 Jan09 (pugh d)SAEZ LUIS 123 8.00    
4  DIVA READY Jul03 May25 Apr27     (thomas jonatha)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 2.00 23% 3.30    
5  CLARA BELLE Jun19 May22 Mar09 Feb14 Jan14 (maker mi)SANTANA JR 120 15.00    
6  BELLA CONCHITA Apr27 Mar24 Feb24     (devaux cherie)FRANCO MANUEL 125 5.00 9% 10.30    
SCR  ALICIA'S WAY Jun29 Jun17 Apr24 Apr03 Feb25 (englehart chris)CANCEL ERIC 118 30.00    
8  RAINING CANDY Jun19         (levine bruce)CARMOUCHE K 123 15.00    
9  PRINCESS BLAKELY Apr09 Jan09       (brown c)ORTIZ JR 120 4.00    
10  FREEDOM MACHINE May30 May06       (schosberg rich)ORTIZ L 123 10.00    
11  KEMBA Jun19 May21 Apr24     (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 123 8.00 ★    
12  CONSTITUTIONALRAGE Jun17 Apr24       (brown br)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 20.00    
13  LOOKIN TO FLY         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 8.00 7% 13.20    
SCR  ENGLISH CHARMER Jun22 May31 Mar17 Feb16 Jan21 (aro c)ORTIZ JR 123 10.00    
SCR  HATARI Jun08 May12 Apr08 Mar12 Feb11 (maker mi)SANTANA JR 118 8.00    
SCR  MAYBE LATER Jul02 Jun12 May22 May08 Mar25 (rice linda)DAVIS DYLAN 123 1.80 39% 1.60    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.