Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 19, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/4)-(2/6/3/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/3/4)-(2/6/3/4)-(2/6/3/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/3/4)-(2/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/3/4)-(2/1/3)-(2/10/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-2   WIN (2/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/3)-(2/1/3/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/1/3)-(2/1/3/7)-(2/1/3/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/1/3)-(2/10/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/1/3)-(2/10/4)-(7/6/5/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-3   WIN (2/10/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/10/4)-(2/10/4/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/10/4)-(2/10/4/7)-(2/10/4/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/10/4)-(7/6/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/10/4)-(7/6/5/8)-(1/4/9/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (7/6/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/5/8)-(7/6/5/8/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/6/5/8)-(7/6/5/8/2)-(7/6/5/8/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/6/5/8)-(1/4/9/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/6/5/8)-(1/4/9/6)-(5/6/7/8) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-5   WIN (1/4/9/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/9/6)-(1/4/9/2/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/4/9/6)-(1/4/9/2/6)-(1/4/9/2/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/4/9/6)-(5/6/7/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/4/9/6)-(5/6/7/8)-(8/5/1/3) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-6   WIN (5/6/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/6/7/8)-(5/6/7/8/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/6/7/8)-(5/6/7/8/1)-(5/6/7/8/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/6/7/8)-(8/5/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/6/7/8)-(8/5/1/3)-(5/9/7/4) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-7   WIN (8/5/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/5/1/3)-(8/5/1/3/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/5/1/3)-(8/5/1/3/2)-(8/5/1/3/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (8/5/1/3)-(5/9/7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/5/1/3)-(5/9/7/4)-(10/6/7/9/1) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-8   WIN (5/9/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/9/7/4)-(5/9/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/9/7/4)-(5/9/7/4)-(5/9/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/9/7/4)-(10/6/7/9/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-9   WIN (10/6/7/9/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/6/7/9/1)-(10/6/7/9/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/6/7/9/1)-(10/6/7/9/1)-(10/6/7/9/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/19/2025 5610ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAGG O TIME Oct29 Oct08 Sep17 Jul19 Jun28 (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 119 15.00    
2  MOUNTAIN WOLF Oct27 Sep17 Aug06     (cox h)ORTIZ JR 119 1.00 75% 0.30    
3  FEDERAL AGENT Nov02 Oct10 Sep17 Aug19 Jul19 (barnett bob)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  BAAL Oct29 Sep17       (morey william)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  C. P. A. JIM Oct29 Oct08 Sep21 Aug29 Jul25 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50    
6  PROTOTYPE Oct06         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 4.00 ★    
7  BROCK'S BOY Oct29 Sep13 Aug28     (leonard george)CEDILLO ABEL 119 20.00    
8  HOMEPAGE Oct29 Sep09 Aug28     (esqu)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 20.00    
 
CD-2   11/19/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SENSE OF PEARL Sep25 Sep13 Aug14 Jul25 Jul03 (decker ann)HERNANDEZ N 120 12.00 24% 3.20    
2  GOLDEN DEGREE Oct15 Sep21 Aug07 Jun26 May01 (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 120 1.80 31% 2.20    
3  WE'LL DO IT LIVE Oct31 Oct16 Oct07 Aug24 Aug02 (salas ma)RODRIGUEZ A 120 8.00 13% 6.90    
4  TITLED LADY May24 May01 Jan31 Dec27 Dec06 (maker michael )ORTIZ L 120 2.50    
5  PROGENY Oct31 Oct10 Sep17 Aug17 Jun14 (kantarmaci m)TORRES A 120 10.00    
6  SMART WITH HEART Oct31 Oct09 Oct01 Aug15 Jun21 (diodoro r)TORRES A 120 10.00    
7  DEMI Oct31 Sep19 Aug03 Jun27 May24 (foster eric)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 3.00 ★    
 
CD-3   11/19/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 2 ALL PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MONTALBANO Nov04 Oct16 Oct01 Sep05 Aug23 (segl)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 15.00    
2  TWO SEVEN O Nov05 Sep21       (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 1.40 25% 3.00    
3  SECRETO UNO Oct15 Sep06 Jul25     (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
4  KNICKADOO         (ewing mic)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 119 12.00 22% 3.50    
5  SILENT HORIZON Oct30 Sep17 Sep03 Jun16   (garcia genaro)MENDOZA AMIR 114 10.00    
SCR  WOOD YOU DARE Oct15 Sep26       (moreno t)RODRIGUEZ A 119 8.00    
7  JOCK FROST Sep17 Aug22 Jul21     (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 ★    
SCR  ROYAL SAPPHIRE         (moger ed )BERMUDEZ E 119 15.00    
SCR  VINO SUBITO Nov05 Oct03       (vanden britt)EMIGH A 119 6.00    
10  HEAVENLY MATCH         (o'dwyer jeremi)SHEEHY DANNY 119 15.00 24% 3.10    
11  I FORGOT TO ASK Sep21         (ennis john)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 15.00    
 
CD-4   11/19/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($57K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MANDY'S MAN CAN Sep18         (sims phil)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 15.00    
2  MIRACLE ON CENTRAL Apr12 Mar23 Mar06 Feb07 Jan12 (hartman chris)BACON W 122 10.00 ★    
SCR  MASHBURN Sep21 Dec14       (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 122 8.00    
SCR  COASTAL BREEZE Aug20 May26       (jacobson d)ANDERSON MCKENNA 122 10.00    
5  CARDINAL UNION Mar27         (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  AERATE Nov02 Sep12 Jul24 Jul17 Jun27 (kantarmaci m)TORRES A 122 4.50 6% 14.50    
7  CAPITAL CONNECTION Jun12 May12 Apr14 Mar15 Jan27 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 124 2.00 69% 0.50    
8  SAINT SHANCE Sep24 Aug23 Aug01 Mar27   (tomlinson mich)CEDILLO ABEL 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  DU MONDE Sep28 Sep05 Aug16 Aug02 Jul20 (hill f)TREJOS JOSEPH 124 12.00    
10  TEMPUS PRIME Jan25         (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00    
11  FOX CREEK Sep30 Sep18 Aug06 Jul26 Jun12 (labra rogeli)BARBOSA CARLOS 124 30.00    
12  MAJOR LEAGUE Sep15 Aug01 Jun28 Jun05   (johnston lane )SAEZ GABRIEL 122 20.00    
 
CD-5   11/19/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($58K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TARTARIA Oct30 Oct05 Sep13 Jul22 Jul08 (leonard geor)TORRES A 120 3.50 48% 1.10    
2  WONDER OF YOU Oct30 Sep13 Aug11 Jul12 May15 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 120 4.50 ★    
SCR  LYLAH RENEE Oct28 Sep19 Sep02 Aug12 Jul26 (leonard geo)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 15.00    
4  JUST AN OPINION Oct05 Sep25 Jul20 Jul12 Jun25 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 120 2.50 18% 4.50    
5  COASTLINE HOTTIE Oct30 Sep13 Aug23 Aug11 Jun22 (axmaker w)MACHADO LUAN 120 10.00    
6  SPOTAWAY Oct30 Oct07 Sep12 Aug01 Jul19 (rouck mar)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  FAITH HOPE N LOVE Oct28 Oct14 Sep19 Aug12 Jul15 (pompell robert)CEDILLO ABEL 118 20.00    
8  STREAKING Nov01 Sep17 Jul15 Jan17 Nov07 (johnston )ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 4.00    
9  KANAZAWA Oct23 Oct09 Sep16 Aug28 Aug05 (fletcher kevin)ACHARD ALEX 118 15.00 10% 8.60    
10  SENSIBLE CHOICE Oct29 Sep21 Aug25 Aug04 Jul06 (anderson doug)BACON W 120 12.00    
 
CD-6   11/19/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($72K) 2 F PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TELLING TALES (ARG)         (morse l)ELLIOTT JANE 119 12.00 ★    
2  LOCKDOWNYOURTOWN Oct05         (sims a)MACHADO LUAN 119 4.50    
3  GLAZIN' FURY Oct11 Aug31 Aug09     (shirer a)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00    
4  ROCKIN THE LANE         (hartman chris)BACON W 119 12.00    
5  YOU'RE IN HEAVEN         (stewart dalla)ORTIZ JR 119 3.50 51% 1.00    
6  SILVERTOWN Nov01 Oct05 Sep13     (garcia ge)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 119 4.00 13% 6.90    
7  G ONE BOUND         (moger ed )BERMUDEZ E 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
8  FAITHFUL DEPARTED         (forster gran)TORRES A 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LA PRESUMIDA Nov02 Oct07       (segl)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 15.00    
SCR  BABY HELLO         (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
11  APPEALING MISCHIEF         (morse l)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
 
CD-7   11/19/2025 5280ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BELLA STREET Oct25         (sims matthe)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 5.00 12% 7.40    
  (by UPSTART out of BIRRA by STREET SENSE)
2  FLASH OF FREEDOM Oct18         (sims a)MACHADO LUAN 119 4.50 ★    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of FLASHY CAMPAIGN by POLITICAL FORCE)
3  NYCON Oct15         (beckman wh)TORRES A 119 4.00 6% 15.50    
  (by NYQUIST out of RAISE THE FLAG by DR. ADAGIO)
4  RED RAINBOW Oct22 Sep28       (wismer gl)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of MALIBU RAINBOW by MALIBU MOON)
5  LEEDU Oct25         (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 119 3.50 22% 3.50    
  (by INDEPENDENCE HALL out of WILL DO by ROMAN RULER)
SCR  SHIDONI Oct30 Oct08 Aug31 Jul13 Jun14 (salas felipe)CALLEJA ANDRES 119 20.00    
  (by GORMLEY out of KAT'S INFATUATION by SILVER CITY)
7  SUMMER DATE Oct18         (medina ro)TORRES A 119 20.00    
  (by RIVA RIDGE out of SHE CAT by BLUEGRASS CAT)
8  INTANGIBLE Oct26         (cox h)ORTIZ JR 119 2.50 39% 1.60    
  (by DIESIS (GB) out of FINANCIAL ONE by MALIBU MOON)
9  RHAPSODY IN BLUE Oct25         (roggenkam)BEALMEAR C 119 20.00    
  (by BERNSTEIN out of NOVEMBER by STORM BOOT)
10  CEARNACH Oct22         (wilkes r)SAEZ LUIS 119 20.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of BEGUILED by ORB)
 
CD-8   11/19/2025 5610ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY LADY JBELLA Oct25 Aug28 Aug08     (cibelli jane)TORRES A 122 20.00    
2  CONCEIT Sep23 Aug30       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 4.50    
SCR  DREAMING COLLECT Sep07 Aug28 Aug07 Jun24 Jun05 (davis d)ACHARD ALEX 120 20.00    
4  STORM CLOUD RISING Oct24 Apr25 Apr11     (esquivel)RODRIGUEZ A 120 30.00 5% 19.00    
5  DAME LAURA (IRE) Oct22 Aug28       (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 43% 1.30    
6  DREAMING WHY Oct02 Aug28 Jul29 May15   (davis jos)BERMUDEZ E 120 30.00    
7  DIABLO SHIRAZ Aug31 Jul05       (ennis john)DOYLE SOPHIE 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  BACK RING BUZZ Oct22 Aug31 Jun27 Jun05   (maker michael )ORTIZ L 120 3.00    
9  AGGRESSIVE LIME Oct03 Aug28       (cox h)ORTIZ JR 122 1.80 34% 1.90    
 
CD-9   11/19/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RIGHTEOUS         (maker michael )ORTIZ L 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of UBETWEREVEN by FRENCH DEPUTY)
2  BRILLIANT BOMB         (spagnol)DE CRUZ 119 20.00    
  (by HIT IT A BOMB out of LOVE TO REMINISCE by SUPER SAVER)
SCR  SLAY SADIE SLAY         (dutrow richar)ORTIZ JR 119 6.00    
  (by ROCK YOUR WORLD out of STRONGERTHANUKNOW by MINESHAFT)
4  KINGSCLIFF         (jacobson david)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of SUNSET WISH by MALIBU MOON)
5  C MCGRIFF         (medina ro)TORRES A 119 20.00    
  (by TACITUS out of WONDER STONE by SUPER SAVER)
6  OUTLAW EMPIRE Oct18 Sep27 Aug22 Jun22   (calhoun wi)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 29% 2.40    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of INDIAN CHARM by INDIAN CHARLIE)
7  MY MILESTONE         (sharp joe)TORRES A 119 6.00 9% 9.80    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of QUALITY OF MERCY by SUMMER FRONT)
8  CRICKET NECK         (gorostiet)BEALMEAR C 119 30.00    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of SHE'S PROUD by PROUD CITIZEN)
9  NON CONFORMING Oct11         (lynch brian)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UNIFIED out of FLOUT by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
10  PATRIOT MOON Oct11         (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.00 37% 1.70    
  (by INDEPENDENCE HALL out of MOON ABDUCTION by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  CANDY CANE CRAIN         (mcpeek ke)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 119 12.00    
  (by GIFT BOX out of FLUFFHEAD by ANIMAL KINGDOM)
12  BLESSED WARRIOR         (douaihy m)GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 119 15.00    
  (by MITOLE out of ROYAL RAJA by AMERICAIN)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.