Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Fort Erie
Monday - October 14, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
FE-1   WIN (3/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/1)-(3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/1)-(1/3/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/2/1)-(1/3/6/7)-(1/2/5) 36 $0.20 $7.20 
FE-2   WIN (1/3/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/6/7)-(1/3/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/6/7)-(1/3/6/7)-(1/3/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/6/7)-(1/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/3/6/7)-(1/2/5)-(3/1/5) 36 $0.20 $7.20 
FE-3   WIN (1/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/5)-(1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/5)-(3/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/2/5)-(3/1/5)-(3/2/6) 27 $0.20 $5.40 
FE-4   WIN (3/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/5)-(3/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/5)-(3/1/5)-(3/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/5)-(3/2/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/1/5)-(3/2/6)-(3/2/5) 27 $0.20 $5.40 
FE-5   WIN (3/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/6)-(3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/6)-(3/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/2/6)-(3/2/5)-(4/1/6/7/8) 45 $0.20 $9.00 
FE-6   WIN (3/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/5)-(3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/5)-(4/1/6/7/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
FE-7   WIN (4/1/6/7/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/1/6/7/8)-(4/1/6/7/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/1/6/7/8)-(4/1/6/7/8)-(4/1/6/7/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
FE-1   10/14/2024 3300ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP M/F PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EASY ACCESS Sep30 Sep17 Aug06 Jul22 Jul01 (keen howard)JOHNSON KIRK 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  SIGNATURE RING Oct01 Sep10 Aug05 Jul21 Jun11 (mileni nick)HUSBANDS TERRY 120 3.50 23% 3.40    
3  CRUMLIN BIRD Sep27 Sep03 Aug06 Jul22 Jun13 (fournier mark)MORENO OMAR 124 2.00 32% 2.10    
4  CREATIVPERFORMANCE Oct01 Sep17 Sep03 Aug27 Aug13 (simms c)CRAWFORD J 120 4.50    
5  STRIKE THE POSE Jul22 Jun11 May28 Oct17 Oct06 (mileni nick)ZENTENO EDGAR 124 1.80    
 
FE-2   10/14/2024 3300ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.75K) 3UP M/F PT-12:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PLUIE D'AVRIL Sep23 Aug27 Aug12 Jul22 Jul01 (simms c)ZENTENO EDGAR 122 2.50 26% 2.90    
2  A GAL FOR T J Sep03 Aug12 Jul30 Jul01 Jun16 (robillard julie)CRAWFORD J 120 4.50    
3  SNELL FLICKA Oct01 Sep03 Aug12 Jul02 Jun04 (blake j)MORENO OMAR 122 8.00 22% 3.70    
4  DEVIL IN HER HEART Sep30 Sep03 Aug06 Jul22 Jul01 (agostino geo)SALLES LEO 120 10.00    
5  LOADED QUESTION Sep30 Sep17 Sep03 Jul30 Jul16 (humber joseph)KERR CHEYENNE 115 12.00    
6  BIG GINGER Sep30 Sep09 Aug13 Jul15 Jul02 (robillard juli)JOHNSON KIRK 120 6.00 14% 5.90    
7  CHROME'S BIG BREAK Sep30 Sep17 Sep03 Aug12 Jul22 (crete pierre)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 115 8.00 8% 11.50    
8  DEMURELY Sep30 Aug16 Jun27 May17 Mar16 (rombis e)AEBLY FRASER 122 3.00    
 
FE-3   10/14/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.75K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SMOKEN CHLOE Sep30 Sep16 Sep10 Aug27 Aug18 (humber joseph)CRAWFORD J 120 2.00 40% 1.50    
2  FEW REGRETS Sep30 Sep23 Sep02 Aug18 Jul30 (agostino geo)SALLES LEO 120 3.50 20% 4.00    
3  CONTAGIOUSLAUGHTER Sep30 Sep16 Sep02 Aug18 Aug01 (alderson anth)KERR CHEYENNE 115 8.00    
4  FIXYURHAIRUPRETTY Oct07 Sep24 Sep16 Aug27 Aug20 (newland george)MORENO OMAR 120 3.00    
5  ALWAY'S ROSIE Sep30 Sep23 Sep10 Aug20 Jul29 (albu ken)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 8.00 8% 11.90    
6  FEROCIOUS QUEEN Oct07 Sep09 Aug26 Aug13 Jul22 (newlan)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 122 4.00    
 
FE-4   10/14/2024 5490ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($24.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AWESOME SPIRIT GAL (FR) Sep17 Aug20 Jul29     (neubauer mich)PINTO MELANIE 120 2.00 28% 2.50    
2  AMONG THE ROSES Oct07 Sep17 Aug20 Aug05 Jul21 (humber joseph)SALLES LEO 120 8.00    
3  HOLIDAY IN JAIL Aug31 Jul20 Jun06 Dec09 Dec02 (tiller robert)KERR CHEYENNE 115 1.60 34% 1.90    
4  MAIKEN THE VIKING Oct01 Sep16 Aug26 Aug12 Jul20 (davis m)CRAWFORD J 120 3.50    
5  INITTOWINIT Sep10 Aug20 Aug13 Jul25 Nov18 (dixon patrick)ZENTENO EDGAR 120 5.00 5% 19.00    
 
FE-5   10/14/2024 4290ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($21.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROHESE Aug26 Aug13 Jul25 Jul07 Jun25 (willia)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 120 15.00    
  (by HYPER out of MOUNTAIN ASTOR by AFTER MARKET)
2  SPECTACULAR FORCE Sep16 Sep05 Aug23 Jul20 Jul04 (carter angelle)AEBLY FRASER 120 3.50 30% 2.30    
  (by FLATTER out of PIRATE'S TROVE by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
3  FLAWLESS QUALITY Jun15 May03       (neubauer mich)PINTO MELANIE 120 1.40 40% 1.50    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of INTERNALLYFLAWLESS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
4  CHAMPAGNE KRISTA Oct01 Jun17 Oct28 Sep24   (mileni nick)ZENTENO EDGAR 122 6.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
5  PRINCESS O DENMARK Oct03 Sep05 Aug22 Jul27 Jul04 (davis m)CRAWFORD J 120 2.50    
  (by DANISH DYNAFORMER out of QUEEN OF THE BAY by PAYNES BAY)
6  DAISYCREST Oct01 Sep16 Aug26 Aug06 Jul22 (agostino geo)SALLES LEO 120 8.00 5% 17.30    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of CRY OF THE WILD by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
FE-6   10/14/2024 4290ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($24.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEATTLE DOWN UNDER Sep30 Sep21 Aug12 Jul26 Jul13 (spada lauren)PINTO MELANIE 122 15.00    
2  LONHRO'S GAMBLE Sep24 Aug05 Jul12 Jun28 May31 (agostino roy )ZENTENO EDGAR 120 2.50 14% 6.10    
3  TONKA WAKAN Sep24 Aug27 Aug05 Jul16 Jul01 (steer tom)AEBLY FRASER 122 3.50 35% 1.90    
4  MY MUNNINGS MODEL Oct06 Sep13 Aug03 Jul20 Jun23 (chircop steven)SALLES LEO 120 1.80    
5  DEFOGGER Sep30 Sep24 Sep06 Aug23 Sep21 (albu ken)JOHNSON KIRK 122 8.00 11% 7.80    
6  IF YOU INSIST Oct04 Sep22 Sep08 Jul26 Sep08 (raghunat)BUCHANAN Z 120 4.00    
 
FE-7   10/14/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YOGA Sep30 Sep16 Aug20 Aug08 Jul21 (raghunat)BUCHANAN Z 124 3.00 23% 3.40    
2  GOLDEN SPRING Sep23 Sep10 Aug18 Aug05 Jul21 (robillard josh)SALLES LEO 120 10.00    
3  DIAL A CLICHE Oct03 Aug30 Aug10 Jun20 May18 (tiller robert)KERR CHEYENNE 115 1.80    
4  THIS ONE CAN RUN Jul22 Jul08 Jun04 May12 Apr30 (robillard ju)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 5.00 34% 1.90    
5  ASHCAR NELLIE Oct08 Aug20 Jul30 Jul08 Jun11 (mileni nick)ZENTENO EDGAR 120 6.00    
6  RIFLING Oct01 Sep17 Aug22 Jul30 Jul16 (blake michael)PINTO MELANIE 122 10.00 17% 4.90    
7  LULU'S LULLABY Sep23 Sep13 Aug26 Aug08 Jul30 (squire)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
8  CHROME'S ANGEL Sep23 Sep16 Aug22 Jul18 Jun22 (humber joseph)CRAWFORD J 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
9  STOLE THE RING Oct01 Sep17 Sep09 Aug26 Jul30 (chudobiak ga)HUSBANDS TERRY 122 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.