Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Hawthorne
Sunday - July 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
HAW-1   WIN (4/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/2)-(4/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/2)-(4/3/2)-(4/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/2)-(6/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/3/2)-(6/2/5)-(1/5/8) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
HAW-2   WIN (6/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/5)-(6/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/5)-(6/2/5)-(6/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/2/5)-(1/5/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/2/5)-(1/5/8)-(5/4/6/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
HAW-3   WIN (1/5/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/8)-(1/5/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/8)-(1/5/8)-(1/5/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/8)-(5/4/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/5/8)-(5/4/6/2)-(4/8/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
HAW-4   WIN (5/4/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/6/2)-(5/4/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/6/2)-(5/4/6/2)-(5/4/6/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/6/2)-(4/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/4/6/2)-(4/8/5)-(5/6/4/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
HAW-5   WIN (4/8/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/8/5)-(4/8/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/8/5)-(4/8/5)-(4/8/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/8/5)-(5/6/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/8/5)-(5/6/4/1)-(3/10/2/1/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
HAW-6   WIN (5/6/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/6/4/1)-(5/6/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/6/4/1)-(5/6/4/1)-(5/6/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/6/4/1)-(3/10/2/1/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
HAW-7   WIN (3/10/2/1/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/10/2/1/9)-(3/10/2/1/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/10/2/1/9)-(3/10/2/1/9)-(3/10/2/1/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
HAW-1   07/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($18K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOONA LUV Sep20 Sep01 Aug04 Jul21 May25 (haran john)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 5.00    
2  MY LADY SLEW Jun29 Jun01 May18 May07 Apr13 (rodriguez g)MOJICA O 122 1.80 17% 5.00    
3  SHADOW BELLE Jun06 May10 Apr19 Feb01 Jan12 (cook brian)LEZCANO ABEL 122 2.50 23% 3.30    
4  AWESOME SUNDAY Jun08 May04 Apr18 Apr02 Jan26 (vanden britt)FELIX E 118 3.00 35% 1.90    
5  RUNNERS HEAT Jun22 Jun11 May18 Apr27 Mar30 (wilson sharo)GILES EMMANUEL 117 4.00    
 
HAW-2   07/16/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($15K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POWERFUL MAN Jun25 Jun04 May25 Apr30 Apr13 (bahena fernando)FELIX E 122 6.00    
2  MISTER CHARMING Jun22 Jun04 Apr13 Mar19 Dec30 (spagnola id)BLANCHE RISHAWN 115 4.50 27% 2.70    
3  LOOK AWAY Jun25 May25 Mar26 Jan19 Dec30 (jones s)TAVARES JAVIER 122 5.00    
4  KRAMDEN Jul08 Jun29 Jun21 Jun14 May27 (castro is)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 5.00    
5  OPTION Jun25 Jun01 May11 Apr23 Apr06 (meraz antoni)GILES EMMANUEL 117 3.50 16% 5.40    
6  MITZRAYIM Jun29 Jun11 May07 Apr16 May13 (clay pat)MOJICA O 122 1.60 30% 2.30    
 
HAW-3   07/16/2023 4950ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($38K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PENUMBRAS MAKER Jun29 Jun08 May18 Apr28 Apr07 (gutierrez fa)TAVARES JAVIER 120 2.50 60% 0.70    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of BALAYAGE by WAR FRONT)
2  SPICY ITALIAN Jun11 May20       (catalano way)GILES EMMANUEL 115 10.00    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of SILVER KITTY by NORTHERN AFLEET)
3  THEMISCHIEVOUSONE Jun22 Dec03       (block chris)COLON H 120 8.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of MADISON MAYHEM by DISTORTED HUMOR)
4  LIL CARRIE D Jun22 Jun04 May14 Apr23 Mar12 (slager mike)ORM CORY 120 15.00    
  (by SHAKIN IT UP out of MOONLIGHT ESCAPADE by LION HEART)
5  WILDWOOD ENOUGH Jun11         (becker scott)CENTENO ALEXIS 124 6.00 15% 5.80    
  (by HE'S HAD ENOUGH out of ELLENVILLE by CARSON CITY)
SCR  DREAM FLY Sep08 Aug25 Jul14 May27   (ward a)MOJICA O 124 1.80    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of BOMBO GENESIS by AFLEET ALEX)
SCR  MISS HIGH N MIGHTY Jul06 Jun21 Jun04 May25 Apr09 (ramirez carlo)HERNANDEZ K 124 20.00    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of OAK MARSH by FIRST SAMURAI)
8  JOYZELLA Jun22 Jun07 May14 Apr23 Apr06 (spagnola id)BLANCHE RISHAWN 113 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of TIZ TERESA by TIZNOW)
SCR  J Z'S FINE WINE Jul09 Jun22 Jun07 May21 Dec16 (zawitz jo)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 120 12.00    
  (by V. E. DAY out of JO JO'S WINE by D'WILDCAT)
SCR  GUSTAVI Apr22 Mar26       (lopez elias)HERNANDEZ K 120 4.50    
  (by TAPWRIT out of IT'S MO TIME by UNCLE MO)
 
HAW-4   07/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($14.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HEY MA May25 May07 Apr16 Mar16 Dec09 (reyes mar)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 12.00    
2  SHINY SHOES Dec09 Nov21 Nov03 Oct03 Sep19 (meraz antoni)GILES EMMANUEL 117 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  OPALINE Jun08 May20 May04 Mar23   (rivelli larry)MOJICA O 118 4.50    
4  BELLS OF JOY Jun15 Jun08 May25 May07 Apr16 (reavis l)FELIX E 122 4.00 22% 3.60    
5  LUNARCHY Jun14 May31 Apr27 Apr20 Mar16 (meraz antonio)HERNANDEZ K 118 5.00 35% 1.80    
6  GETTIN DOWN Jun15 May25 Apr27     (rivelli larr)CENTENO ALEXIS 118 2.50 17% 4.80    
7  SEQUAYA Jun15 Jun08 May18 Apr16 Mar16 (cook brian)BLANCHE RISHAWN 115 3.50    
 
HAW-5   07/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DEGREE OF RISK Feb05 Jan02 Nov11 Oct29 Aug13 (harty eoin)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 0.80    
SCR  SON OF GRACE Jun25 Jun11 Jun04 May25 May14 (hughes earl )TAVARES JAVIER 122 10.00    
3  SHARP AZ NAILS Jun25 May28 Mar05 Feb03 Jan07 (winebaugh cher)COLON H 118 20.00    
4  SIMPLE LOGIC Jun25 Jun04 Oct07 Sep07 Aug15 (block chris)MOJICA O 122 3.50 66% 0.50    
5  MAN ON ATTACK Jun21 May28 May07 Apr16 Mar26 (childers van)GILES EMMANUEL 113 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  FREDDY J Jun15 May26 Apr06 Oct01 Aug01 (tracy tanner)FELIX E 122 12.00    
7  COALMINER'S KITTEN Apr20 Apr01 Feb08 Jan12 Nov11 (quinonez )BENDEZU ALEXANDER 118 15.00    
8  BAKENEKO Jun25 Jun11 May21 Apr20 Apr13 (rodriguez hug)HERNANDEZ K 122 12.00 10% 8.60    
9  RUSSIAN HAMMER Jun25 May28 May04 Apr23 Mar26 (perez manny)LEZCANO ABEL 118 20.00    
 
HAW-6   07/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AH LEAH Jun20 Jun11 May20 May06 Apr09 (schlenk k)MOJICA O 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  CAIRO SUMMER Jun25 Jun07 May25 May18 Apr27 (cook brian)BLANCHE RISHAWN 115 8.00    
3  RANK AND FILE Jun29 Jun18 Jun04 May28 May18 (hughes w)HERNANDEZ K 122 6.00    
4  AUNT STELLA Jul06 Jun11 May28 May07 Apr30 (castro isidr)TAVARES JAVIER 122 3.50 22% 3.60    
5  ARCH FLYER Jul06 Jun18 May28 May07 Apr22 (zawitz jo)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 3.00 31% 2.20    
6  PALACE MAGIC Jun21 Jun01 May18 May02 Apr06 (banks chris)LEZCANO ABEL 122 1.60 24% 3.20    
7  HER GOLD MINE Jul06 Jun11 Jun01 May04 Apr09 (meraz antoni)GILES EMMANUEL 117 15.00    
 
HAW-7   07/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8.5K) Purse ($19K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KENNESAW Jul05 Jun22 May21 Apr06 Mar12 (rodriguez edu)HERNANDEZ K 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  D'ARCHER Jun18 May11 Apr06 Mar05 Feb02 (childers vance)FELIX E 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  FOLLOW THE SIGNS Jun14 May18 Apr23 Apr02 Mar23 (reavis micha)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 5.00 62% 0.60    
4  RISKY BOY Jun25 Jun15 May28 May11 Apr23 (shephard )BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 15.00    
5  CHOPPER Jun25 May28 Apr06 Mar16 Mar05 (cook brian)BLANCHE RISHAWN 115 30.00    
SCR  CLEAR N CONVINCING Aug17 Aug09 Jun24 Jun10 May13 (rivelli larry)MOJICA O 122 3.50    
SCR  DRAGON DREW Jul05 Jun14 May28 Apr02 Feb03 (cook brian)LEZCANO ABEL 122 10.00    
8  MEDAL OF FACT Jul05 Jun15 May09 Apr23 Apr02 (rodriguez j)ARRIETA REYNIER 122 8.00    
9  GREELEYS ICE Jul05 Jun25 Jun14 May28 May04 (reyes martin)GILES EMMANUEL 117 20.00 5% 19.00    
10  MALIGATOR Jun25 Jun11 May21 Sep23 Aug24 (reid r)COLON H 124 10.00 14% 6.20    
11  MUD ISLAND Jun25 Jun08 May21 May06 Apr22 (meraz antonio)LOPEZ A 122 12.00    
SCR  EXPROMPT (FR) Jun14 Jul10 May15 Jan23 Jan08 (campbell joe)TAVARES JAVIER 122 4.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.