Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Sam Houston Park
Friday - February 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
HOU-2   WIN (6/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/4)-(6/4/5/2/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (6/4)-(6/4/5/2/3)-(6/4/5/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/4)-(7/4/8/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/4)-(7/4/8/1)-(7/2/3) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
HOU-3   WIN (7/4/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/8/1)-(7/4/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/8/1)-(7/4/8/1)-(7/4/8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/4/8/1)-(7/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/8/1)-(7/2/3)-(8/3) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
HOU-4   WIN (7/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/2/3)-(7/2/5/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/2/3)-(7/2/5/3/1)-(7/2/5/3/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (7/2/3)-(8/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (7/2/3)-(8/3)-(6/8/4/3/2) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
HOU-5   WIN (8/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (8/3)-(8/3/7/5/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (8/3)-(8/3/7/5/1)-(8/3/7/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/3)-(6/8/4/3/2) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (8/3)-(6/8/4/3/2)-(2/5/8/4/3) 50 $1.00 $50.00 
HOU-6   WIN (6/8/4/3/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/8/4/3/2)-(6/8/4/3/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/8/4/3/2)-(6/8/4/3/2)-(6/8/4/3/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/8/4/3/2)-(2/5/8/4/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (6/8/4/3/2)-(2/5/8/4/3)-(3/4/1) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
HOU-7   WIN (2/5/8/4/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/5/8/4/3)-(2/5/8/4/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/5/8/4/3)-(2/5/8/4/3)-(2/5/8/4/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/5/8/4/3)-(3/4/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (2/5/8/4/3)-(3/4/1)-(10/6/11/9/4) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
HOU-8   WIN (3/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/1)-(3/4/1/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/4/1)-(3/4/1/6/7)-(3/4/1/6/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (3/4/1)-(10/6/11/9/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
HOU-9   WIN (10/6/11/9/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/6/11/9/4)-(10/6/11/9/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/6/11/9/4)-(10/6/11/9/4)-(10/6/11/9/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
HOU-2   02/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($13K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AUNT JANA Feb04 Nov09 Oct26 Aug24 Aug12 (mallery vonn)SANCHEZ M 123 20.00    
2  EUROROSE Feb05 Jan21 Dec16 Nov25 Nov04 (echeverria hect)BENAVIDES D 123 15.00 ★    
3  QUEEN OF MAGNOLIA Jan13 Dec07 Nov22 Oct26 Sep24 (h)DE CRUZ 123 8.00 ★    
4  TACHA GOLD Jan14 Dec14 Dec01 Nov04   (davis shawn )ALVAREZ L 123 1.20 15% 5.60    
5  BLUEGRASS DIXIE Jan21 Nov12 Sep27 Jul03 Jun19 (ortiz jav)CONTRERAS ALFREDO 123 3.50 ★    
6  C J 'S CAT FIVE Feb03 Nov29 Nov14 Oct31 Oct11 (montano wil)OLIVEROS CHARLE 123 2.00 53% 0.90    
 
HOU-3   02/17/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($35K) 3 F PT- 2:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OH DOO DAH DAY         (craddoc)GONCALVES R 122 15.00 5% 17.30    
  (by PALACE out of HEAVEN'S RING by PARADING)
2  HOLIDAY DREAMER         (asmussen steve)MORA GERARDO 122 6.00    
  (by CURLIN out of CALAMITY KATE by YES IT'S TRUE)
3  SPLITSECONDECISION Feb05 Jan15 Dec15 Dec03 Nov19 (davis ste)CONTRERAS ALFREDO 122 20.00    
  (by TAMARKUZ out of MUSADAQA by BERNARDINI)
4  FAME STREET Jan27 Oct08 Sep14 Aug20   (calhoun will)ALVAREZ L 122 2.00 21% 3.80    
  (by STREET SENSE out of NEWSREEL (IRE) by A.P. INDY)
5  TIZ A KNOCKOUT Jan27         (jacks e)DIEGO V 122 10.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of TIZ CHAMP by TIZNOW)
6  CHARMING LEAH Jan27         (jack)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 122 15.00    
  (by LEA out of SPECIAL CHARM by DANSILI)
7  VIVACIOUSLY Dec31 Nov26       (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 122 2.50 28% 2.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of TERRA PROMESSA by CURLIN)
8  MENDI'S GIRL Jan13 Dec14 Nov02 Sep23 Sep09 (young bob)LUZZI J 122 4.00 9% 10.80    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of MISS DEREK by BROTHER DEREK)
SCR  WITSEC Jan13 Dec09 Nov11 Oct12 Sep24 (young scott)MELANCON JANSEN 122 3.00 12% 7.50    
  (by RUN AWAY AND HIDE out of RUN CARRIE RUN by ORIENTATE (GB))
 
HOU-4   02/17/2023 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($14K) 45 ALL PT- 3:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VINDICATO Feb04 Jan16 Nov25 Nov09 Oct21 (pish danny)MORA GERARDO 123 4.50 ★    
2  MORO'S BULL CREEK Feb03         (caldwell r)LUZZI J 123 1.80 20% 4.10    
3  CIBOLO ERL Jun04         (jolley e)BENAVIDES D 123 12.00 8% 11.80    
4  STRAWMAN Aug27 Aug13 Jul23 Jun24 May15 (butler ke)CONTRERAS ALFREDO 123 20.00    
5  RED BIRD'S STORM Jan13 Nov03 Oct22 Sep30 Sep22 (c)DE CRUZ 123 2.50 ★    
6  SMARTY RIDGE Dec15 Nov22 Oct26 Oct07 Sep26 (kotara ronal)PIVARAL GERBER 123 15.00    
7  GOLD CAPO Jan13 Jul09 Jun18 Jun10   (echeverria )OLIVEROS CHARLE 123 3.00 37% 1.70    
 
HOU-5   02/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($14K) 3 F PT- 3:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SKYSPEIGHT Feb05         (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 122 2.50 ★    
2  TERRI N MARY Jan15 Sep23 Sep01     (roberts blair)DIEGO V 122 30.00    
3  IN THE FAST LANE Jan22 Jan07 Jul21 Jun05   (caldwell r)ELLIOTT S 122 8.00 7% 13.70    
4  HAILEY'S JEWEL Jan15 Nov26 Oct24 Oct11 Sep04 (garza joaquin )MORA GERARDO 122 20.00    
5  CANDY DAY Feb05 Jan27       (davidson sa)HAMILTON WESTON 122 3.50 ★    
6  RABBIT HOLE Jul03 Jun09       (garza joaqu)OLIVEROS CHARLE 122 20.00    
7  MOONPIE IN THE SKY Jan27 Jan06       (dupuy allen)MELANCON JANSEN 122 6.00 ★    
8  SHEBOO         (caldwell r)LUZZI J 122 2.00 68% 0.50    
 
HOU-6   02/17/2023 3300ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($14K) 45 ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG WAVE JAMES Sep01 Jul23 Jun18     (eoff terr)RODRIGUEZ ANARDIS 123 4.50    
2  BOLD COURAGE         (buehrer w)DIAZ RENE 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  MASTER RED Jan16 Sep30 Sep15 Aug10 Jul09 (roberts bl)MORA GERARDO 123 20.00 6% 16.70    
4  DRAG MALIBU Jan06 Dec11 Nov30 Nov03 Sep24 (villafranco)MELANCON JANSEN 123 8.00 12% 7.10    
5  NORTHERN ORBIT Jan20 Nov12 Oct13 Sep22 Sep01 (pruitt m)LANDEROS C 123 15.00    
6  FATHER RED Jun04 Apr09       (stidham michael)ELLIOTT S 123 0.80 28% 2.60    
7  WITT AMERICA Sep27 Sep07 Aug09 Jul27 Jun25 (davidson sa)HAMILTON WESTON 123 15.00    
8  SEARING Jan20 Dec01       (bravo franc)WETHEY JR 123 8.00 25% 3.10    
9  UNCLE CHAN Feb04 Dec20 Nov10 Aug20   (mallery vonn)SANCHEZ M 123 50.00    
10  SOMERSETSLASTRIDE Sep08         (bravo franci)PIVARAL GERBER 123 15.00    
 
HOU-7   02/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($15K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TURN ON THE MAGIC Jan21 Jan14 Dec22 Dec03 Nov08 (pish danny)MORA GERARDO 123 8.00    
2  DRIVEHAPPY Feb04 Jan21 Sep25 Sep01 Feb24 (willis mind)WETHEY JR 123 1.60 39% 1.50    
3  MORHAWK Jan28 Nov14 Oct28 Oct21 Sep29 (williams f)DIAZ RENE 123 30.00 5% 19.00    
4  GREAT FACES Jan21 Jan06 Dec15 Dec03 Nov18 (villa)MANRRIQUE JOSE 123 3.50 8% 12.00    
5  WARRIOR'S MAP Feb04 Jan16 Sep13 Aug23 Aug01 (davidson sa)MELANCON JANSEN 123 6.00 11% 8.00    
SCR  RESOLVE NOW Feb03 Jan08 Dec14 Nov18 Nov03 (eoff terry)LUZZI J 123 10.00    
7  DRIFTING WEST Jan07 Nov21 Jun16 May23 Mar28 (offolter joe)ALVAREZ L 123 8.00    
8  LEGIONARY Jan21 Dec14 Nov18 Oct28 Oct01 (youn)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 123 4.50 11% 8.10    
 
HOU-8   02/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($14K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:09
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BREW CREW Feb03 Nov22 Nov07 Oct07 Sep17 (jacks karen)MELANCON JANSEN 123 10.00 11% 7.80    
2  PRIME CODE Jan13 Dec08 Nov30 Oct22 Sep30 (willis mind)WETHEY JR 123 4.50    
3  AQUIMINE Jan10 Dec14 Nov18 Oct22 Sep10 (ashford r)HAMILTON WESTON 123 4.00 34% 1.90    
4  DETECTIVE BERNARDO Jan21 Sep27 Aug28 Jun26   (ortiz jav)CONTRERAS ALFREDO 123 2.50 25% 3.00    
5  CARPE EROS Feb03 Dec14 Nov21 Nov03 Jul16 (caldwell r)LUZZI J 123 6.00    
6  BOLD N WILD Jan22 Jun16 May21 Apr08 Mar16 (eoff terr)RODRIGUEZ ANARDIS 123 3.50 ★    
7  TALE TWISTER Sep17 Aug08 Jul10 Jun17 May08 (jacks karen )PIVARAL GERBER 123 10.00 ★    
8  POKER PLAY Dec14 Nov18 Nov02 Oct07 Sep17 (caster boyd)DIEGO V 123 15.00    
 
HOU-9   02/17/2023 5610ft TURF RC6 FIRM Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($15K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EZMOSH Oct12 Sep23 Aug26 Mar12 Feb16 (j)DE CRUZ 119 12.00    
2  PEPPER JACK Feb05 Jan22 Dec02 Nov16 Oct28 (govea ces)RODRIGUEZ ANARDIS 119 8.00    
3  WITCH'S VOW Dec08 Nov25 Nov02 Oct12   (alberto antonio)SANCHEZ M 119 50.00    
4  EXETER Jan20 Nov07 Oct26 Oct01 Sep09 (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  VIOLIN MAKER Nov07 Oct07 Sep14 Sep01 Aug04 (broberg karl)ALVAREZ L 119 10.00    
6  CONVICTION TRADE Oct27 Jun17 Jun09 May19 May01 (caldwell r)LUZZI J 119 2.50 20% 4.10    
SCR  CHAOSMOS Dec28 Dec14 Sep27 Aug04 Jun18 (richard rus)MELANCON JANSEN 119 15.00    
8  LAB RAT Jan21 Nov14 Oct26 Oct08 Sep17 (scholl kevi)WETHEY JR 119 12.00    
9  DOC IRWIN Jan20 Jan06 Dec10 Nov04 Oct06 (broberg karl)CIVACI SAHIN 119 6.00 6% 15.80    
10  HALF OURS TO KEEP Jan06 Nov07 Oct21 Sep23 May19 (dupuy allen)HAMILTON WESTON 119 4.00 36% 1.80    
11  NEW YEAR         (montano wilfrido)MONTALVO C 119 8.00 13% 7.00    
12  POP LIFE Feb10 Jan14 Oct19 Sep25 Sep04 (torrez jerenes)MORA GERARDO 119 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.