Handicappers' Racing Form
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Saratoga
Thursday - July 14, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
 
SAR-1   07/14/2022 5940ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:05
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PARSIMONY May24 May06 Feb07 Jan05   (gargan danny)CARMOUCHE K 125 4.50 9% 10.60    
2  WARRIOR IN CHIEF Jun19 May06 Apr21 Mar24 Mar01 (clarke dylan)ALVARADO JUNIOR 125 20.00    
3  AUBURN HILLS Jun24 May06 Apr08 Feb25 Jan09 (persaud randi)CANCEL ERIC 123 20.00    
4  DARK STORM Jun30 May29 May06 Mar27 Jan28 (kantarmaci me)MCCARTHY TREVOR 123 10.00    
5  SMOOTH OPERATION Jun21         (grusmark karl)DAVIS DYLAN 123 15.00    
6  BEAR ALLEY Jun23 May27 May08 Mar31 Mar06 (morey e)PRAT FLAVIEN 123 2.50 6% 16.50    
7  GIOCARE Jun03 May06 Mar26 Feb23 Jan13 (noda orlando)ORTIZ L 125 3.50 12% 7.60    
8  ROYAL TRYST Jun04 May08 Feb04 Jan13   (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 125 6.00    
9  KERSHAW Jun16 May28 May08 Apr22 Mar20 (lucas bonnie)ORTIZ JR 125 4.00 52% 0.90    
 
SAR-2   07/14/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($105K) 2 F PT- 1:39
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HALF A CHANCE Jun05         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 119 1.80 43% 1.30    
2  SPELTERINI         (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
3  WILL BE FAMOUS         (brown r)ORTIZ L 119 12.00    
4  THIRTY THOU KELVIN         (gargan danny)DAVIS DYLAN 119 6.00    
5  TWO MINUTE DRILL         (barkley ja)SANTANA JR 119 8.00    
6  CHOCOLATE GELATO         (pletcher a)ORTIZ JR 119 1.40 33% 2.00    
 
SAR-3   07/14/2022 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Claiming ($40K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:15
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MOUNT TRAVERS Jun30 May27 Apr30 Mar26 Feb18 (kantarmaci mertkan)RIDER TBA 123 4.00    
SCR  PIONEER SPIRIT Jun18 Apr21 Mar20 Feb04   (kantarmaci mertkan)RIDER TBA 123 4.00    
SCR  BE HERE Jun04 May05 Apr27     (thomas jonathan)FRANCO MANUEL 125 3.00    
3  TAKAFUMI (BRZ) Jun25 Mar11 Jan22 Jan10   (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 6.00    
4  HIGH TIDE May13 May06 Apr16 Feb04 Jan13 (martin f)LEZCANO JOSE 125 2.50 28% 2.60    
5  STREET COPPER Jun19         (trombetta mic)MCCARTHY TREVOR 123 15.00    
6  ATTENTIVE May20         (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 123 4.50 29% 2.50    
7  TIBERIUS MERCURIUS Jul01 Apr23 Mar18 Feb12   (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 125 6.00    
SCR  BALLAGH ROCKS Jun26 May20       (englehart jeffrey)DAVIS DYLAN 123 15.00    
9  GRAND JOURNEY Jun25 Apr30 Mar26     (rodriguez r)ORTIZ L 123 6.00 18% 4.50    
SCR  HAMMERIN AAMER Jun16 Apr21 Mar26 Feb04 Jan14 (rice linda)RIDER TBA 125 2.00    
SCR  NO BURN Jun16 May29 May21 Apr07 Mar04 (barrera s)DAVIS DYLAN 125 2.50    
 
SAR-4   07/14/2022 7260ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($105K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:49
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIZ A GIANT Jun28 May17 Mar12 Feb20 Jan22 (trombetta mic)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  TIMO         (thomas jonathan)FRANCO MANUEL 118 10.00    
3  REMOTE Jun18 May20 Apr10 Feb05   (clement christop)ROSARIO JOEL 118 2.00 46% 1.20    
4  VINTAGE YEAR May30 May05 Apr10 Feb25   (arnold r)LEZCANO JOSE 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  GRAND CAY May20 Apr23 Feb25 Jan02   (mcgaughey claud)ORTIZ JR 118 4.00    
6  SNOW'S ISLAND May20 Mar09       (gargan danny)CARMOUCHE K 124 6.00    
7  AFJAN Jul01 Jun08 Apr22 Feb12 Jan08 (maker mich)SANTANA JR 118 5.00 23% 3.30    
8  GOOD SOLDIER May21         (joseph saffi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
SCR  CHEEKY TICO Jul01 Jun11 May07 Apr21 Feb03 (noda orlando)FRANCO MANUEL 118 1.80    
 
SAR-5   07/14/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:21
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CLINGMAN Jun18         (hennig mark)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
2  CATCHING CUPID Jun09         (baker charlton)ROSARIO JOEL 119 3.50 28% 2.60    
3  MAJORITY PARTNER Apr30 Mar12       (englehart jere)CASTELLANO J 119 4.50    
4  TOMMY GUN Jun09 Apr23 Mar31     (weaver george)ORTIZ JR 119 3.00 13% 6.60    
5  SENSIBLECONCLUSION Jun18 May20 Apr24 Apr07 Mar05 (barker r)CANCEL ERIC 119 10.00    
6  COLD WALKER Jun20         (servis c)CARMOUCHE K 119 6.00 29% 2.40    
7  THE INSTITUTE Jan01         (de horacio)ORTIZ L 119 10.00    
8  HEREBY May15 Apr08       (clement christoph)DAVIS DYLAN 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  JOSIE'S THUNDER         (donk david)VELAZQUEZ R 119 15.00    
10  WARALO         (englehart chr)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 30.00    
 
SAR-6   07/14/2022 3630ft TURF RC0 FIRM Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:55
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STARRYSTARRYKNIGHT Jun18 May22 Apr10 Mar05   (kimmel c)ORTIZ L 124 15.00    
2  DARK TIMBER Jun19 May22 Apr23     (casse w)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 10.00    
3  WINTER SON Jun17 May21 May12 Apr10 Mar13 (arenas marcel)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 20.00    
4  JUST SAY WHEN May19 Feb23       (ward a)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00 41% 1.50    
5  FAST N FEARIOUS Jul01 Jun17 May27 Apr24 Mar18 (brown r)DAVIS DYLAN 124 6.00 30% 2.30    
6  U. S. STEEL Jun02 Feb13 Jan16     (lucas bonn)SANTANA JR 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  COLD AS HELL Jul04 Mar05 Feb13 Jan29 Jan16 (lukas wayne)VELAZQUEZ R 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  STANHOPE Jun05 May14 Apr24 Feb13 Feb03 (lucas bonnie)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 6.00    
9  KING MOONRACER Jun17         (weaver george)CASTELLANO J 122 3.50 ★    
10  PROPENSITY Jun17 Jun05 Apr24 Mar24 Feb26 (kimmel c)LEZCANO JOSE 124 8.00    
11  ME 'N SAP Jun16 Feb26       (donk david)CARDENAS LUIS 124 15.00    
SCR  NICHOLAS JAMES Jul01 Jun05 May08 Apr14   (reynolds patri)CASTELLANO J 124 4.50    
SCR  VIKRAM Jun12         (englehart s)SAEZ LUIS 124 8.00    
SCR  LIFE CHANGER Jun05 May05 Apr01 Feb19   (terranova p)ROSARIO JOEL 124 2.50    
 
SAR-7   07/14/2022 5280ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($135K) 3 F PT- 4:29
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GODDESS OF FIRE May06 Apr02 Feb19 Jan15   (pletcher a)VELAZQUEZ R 120 3.00    
2  GINA ROMANTICA May07 Apr10 Mar12     (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 8.00    
3  ST MAARTEN GIRL May13 Apr15 Mar30 Mar02   (vazquez ju)SANTANA JR 120 30.00    
4  ANGITUDE Jun17 May06       (cox h)ROSARIO JOEL 122 8.00 17% 4.90    
SCR  SWEET SOLARE Jun12 May07 Mar19 Feb25 Jan28 (de horacio)CARMOUCHE K 122 20.00    
6  FAVOR May20 Mar26 Feb06 Jan09   (pletcher tod)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50    
7  TARABI Jun18         (devaux cherie)CASTELLANO J 120 2.50 35% 1.90    
SCR  LET'S BE CLEAR Jun12 May19 Apr02 Mar05   (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 20.00    
9  A MO REAY Jun10 Apr08       (pletcher a)ORTIZ JR 122 5.00 19% 4.10    
 
SAR-8   07/14/2022 5940ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($115K) 3 F PT- 5:05
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CANISY Jun16 May01       (clement christ)CASTELLANO J 122 4.00 30% 2.30    
2  BRAVO KITTEN May18 Apr28 Apr14 Jan02   (joseph saffi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 8.00 13% 6.40    
3  MYRISKYAFFAIR Jun09 May19 Apr08 Mar06 Feb09 (clement christop)ROSARIO JOEL 122 3.50 27% 2.70    
SCR  MISSY GREER May20 Mar23 Feb13     (gargan danny)SAEZ LUIS 122 15.00    
5  BIG TENTATIONS May07 Apr02 Mar10 Feb12 Jan12 (vazquez ju)SANTANA JR 118 20.00    
6  CUSTOMER LIST (FR) Jun03         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 122 6.00    
7  LOVE TO RUN May14 Apr03 Mar05     (casse mark)VELAZQUEZ R 122 12.00    
8  LADY PUCHI May20 Apr21 Feb27 Feb13 Jan19 (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 122 15.00    
9  CANDY LIGHT May20 Mar19 Feb24     (motion grah)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  SNOW LOVES A FIGHT May28 Apr30 Apr09 Feb06   (noda orlando)CARMOUCHE K 120 30.00    
SCR  WONKA May28 Mar27 Jan30     (mott i)ORTIZ L 122 4.50    
12  LINDA'S GIFT Jun16 Apr24 Mar27     (weaver george)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 10.00 7% 12.60    
13  SANTA GIULIA (FR)         (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 8.00    
SCR  QUEEN JUDITH Jun25 Apr14 Mar05 Jan16   (casse mark)DAVIS DYLAN 120 15.00    
SCR  TEXIAN Jun26         (mcgaughey ii)RIDER TBA 120 8.00    
 
SAR-9   07/14/2022 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Grade III Stake/Handicap Purse ($175K) 2 F PT- 5:39
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST CINDY Jun17         (kenneally eddie)ORTIZ JR 120 2.50    
3  ADORA May14         (casse mark)DAVIS DYLAN 120 6.00 7% 14.10    
4  VEDAREO Jun14         (reid e)ROSARIO JOEL 120 8.00 34% 2.00    
5  JANIS JOPLIN Jun29         (casse mark)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 12.00    
6  ME AND MY SHADOW May28         (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 38% 1.60    
SCR  MOTOWN MISCHIEF May31         (hamm timothy)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 20.00    
8  MUSICMANSANDY Jun22         (rodriguez rudy )FRANCO MANUEL 120 12.00    
9  SUMMER PROMISE Jun25         (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00    
SCR  SWEET HARMONY (IRE) Jun04         (terranova john )VELAZQUEZ R null      
 
SAR-10   07/14/2022 3630ft TURF RC4 FIRM Claiming ($35K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:13
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAGNILOQUENT Apr22 Feb16       (ward a)ORTIZ L 120 8.00    
2  HIGHWAY QUEEN Jun17 May14 Apr16 Feb04 Jan01 (klesaris steve)CARMOUCHE K 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  TWEAQUED Apr21 Apr01 Jan28     (ribaudo j)DAVIS DYLAN 118 12.00    
4  RIGBY Jun17 May14 Jan19     (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 ★    
5  FAST COREY Jun11 Apr16 Mar10     (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.50 54% 0.80    
6  ABUSE OF POWER Jun04 May28 Feb25 Jan23   (antonacci )SANTANA JR 122 2.50 18% 4.60    
7  PROPER GRAMMAR May22 Apr14 Jan01     (pregman j)SAMUEL L 122 50.00    
8  HALF BIRTHDAY Jun19 Apr29 Apr22 Mar25 Mar11 (morley thomas)CASTELLANO J 120 12.00    
9  QUEENS DANCER Jun22 Jun06 May02     (dixon lind)DAVIS A 120 20.00    
10  DAME TIME Jun09 Apr30 Mar27     (weaver george)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 6.00 5% 18.60    
11  TRAIN TO ARTEMUS Jun17         (joseph a)ORTIZ JR 122 8.00    
SCR  MOMMASGOTTARUN Jun11 May12 Apr16 Mar04 Jan19 (amoss thomas)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 1.80    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.