Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Monday - July 04, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   07/04/2022 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CIVIL WAR Jun19 May15 Apr08     (demeritte)HERNANDEZ J 122 20.00    
2  DOUBLE CROWN Jun18 Jun05 Mar24 Feb21 Jan29 (cash l)COURT K 122 8.00 10% 8.70    
3  SANTOS DUMONT Jun04 May01 Apr02 Feb26   (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 3.00 ★    
4  CANDY TYCOON Jun10 May07 Apr16 Jan22 Jan01 (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 124 2.50 34% 1.90    
5  INJUNCTION Jun05 May07 Apr16 Mar05   (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 124 2.00 29% 2.50    
6  KEYSTONE FIELD Jun17 May07 Mar19 Feb13 Jan07 (maker michael)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 3.50 ★    
 
CD-2   07/04/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  B G WARRIOR         (kahles ronald)MCKEE J 119 20.00    
2  JUST LIKE MAGIC Jun17         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 12% 7.30    
3  MAGICAL LUTE         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
4  FUN AND FEISTY         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 10.00    
5  MOON MAGIC CHRISSY May20 Apr29       (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00 32% 2.10    
6  FRIENDLYPERSUASION         (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 119 10.00    
7  SHE'S JERSEY TUFF Jun17 Jun03 May20 Apr21   (leonard geo)PETERSON FERRIN 119 30.00    
8  BOLTORO         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.00 33% 2.10    
9  BEST SELLER         (maker mi)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
10  SHEZA SHINING STAR Jun03         (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00 ★    
11  HIGH FASHION LADY         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
12  BEA FLATTERED         (romans dale)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 6.00 ★    
SCR  DIVINE GRACE Jul01 Jun03 May05     (ewing micha)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00    
 
CD-3   07/04/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PERFECT CUT May12 Apr15 Mar17 Feb13 Jan08 (diodoro )SANTANA JR 122 12.00 14% 6.00    
2  MUMAYAZ Jun11 Apr23 Mar26 Feb26 Jan29 (peitz dan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
3  COLD AS HELL Mar05 Feb13 Jan29 Jan16   (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 4.50    
4  SPEND BENJAMINS Jun19 May22 Apr30 Mar31 Feb26 (gon)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 122 12.00    
5  NEPOTISM Jun19 May30 May12 Apr13 Mar04 (scherer mari)GEROUX FLORENT 122 3.00 38% 1.70    
SCR  FLAGS UP Jun19 May22       (baker james)BEJARANO R 122 5.00 ★    
7  MR SIPPI Jun11 May29 May04     (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 3.50 23% 3.30    
8  MOUNT ATHOS May30 May12 Apr15     (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 ★    
 
CD-4   07/04/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CATHERINE BLAZE Jun17 May26       (leonard geo)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 30.00    
SCR  CALLIE'S PASSION         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 7% 13.90    
3  AUDACIOUSNESS         (stall albe)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00    
4  STUNNINGLY         (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 25% 2.90    
5  BRISBANE ROAD         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
6  FOREVER DIXIE         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.00 26% 2.80    
SCR  ANACARO         (ennis jo)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
8  NAUGHTY GAL Jun10         (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
9  AUNT MISCHIEF         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
10  RUN AND GUN         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
11  REDHAIREDCOLLEEN         (reece claire)GRAHAM J 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
12  EMPRESS ISABEL         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 12.00    
13  CHIQUITA MOSCA Jun19 May26       (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 8.00    
 
CD-5   07/04/2022 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ENID Jun18 May13 Apr02 Mar17 Feb16 (maker mi)SANTANA JR 122 4.00 7% 13.10    
SCR  RED LABEL Jun22 May29 Apr23 Feb11 Jan08 (demeritte)HERNANDEZ J 118 30.00    
3  GAGETOWN Jun08         (simms j)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  KOUFAX Jun02 May07 Feb28 Jan22   (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00    
5  DOUBLY BLESSED Jun10 Apr28 Mar26 Feb26   (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 30% 2.30    
6  SHORTLIST Apr22 Apr02 Jan29     (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00    
7  RODERICK Jun17 May20 Apr20     (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 122 3.50 8% 11.10    
8  SKYRO May20 Apr27 Mar13 Jan30   (lynch a)GRAHAM J 122 4.00 27% 2.70    
SCR  BIG LAKE Jun04 May13 Mar09 Feb10   (walden wil)CORRALES GERARDO 122 8.00    
10  ERON DO JAGUARETE (BRZ) May20         (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 20.00    
 
CD-6   07/04/2022 3960ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($175K) 2 ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GULFPORT Jun10         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 120 0.80 32% 2.10    
2  OWEN'S LEAP May27         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 ★    
3  ANDTHEWINNERIS Apr28         (catalano m)GRAHAM J 120 5.00 ★    
4  MR. GORDY May05 Apr13       (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 120 12.00 18% 4.40    
5  STAYHONOR GOODSIDE May21         (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 120 6.00    
6  SIMPLY SUPER May05 Apr20       (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 21% 3.80    
 
CD-7   07/04/2022 3960ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($175K) 2 F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CRACKALACKING Apr21         (hamilton sa)PETERSON FERRIN 120 3.50 ★    
2  EYES OF GOLD Jun08         (demeritte)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
3  WONDER WHEEL Jun03         (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 ★    
4  SABRA TUFF Jun08         (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00 ★    
5  LES BON TEMPS May26         (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 120 2.50 28% 2.60    
6  FRANGO ELECTRICO Jun17 May26       (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 30.00    
7  EMPIRE OF MY OWN Jun10 May05       (asmussen )LEPAROUX R 120 1.80 45% 1.20    
 
CD-8   07/04/2022 5280ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($175K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISH May30 May07 Mar10 Feb06 Jan08 (joseph saffi)GONZALEZ EDWIN 118 4.50 ★    
SCR  RUNNIN' RAY May21 Apr02 Feb19 Jan08   (sharp joe)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00    
3  WEYBURN Jun10 May06 Apr02     (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 ★    
4  AWESOME GERRY May28 Apr16 Mar05     (joseph saf)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
5  THREE TECHNIQUE Jun05 May07 Apr09 Mar12 Feb12 (cook b)BEJARANO R 120 10.00 ★    
6  PLAINSMAN Apr23 Mar19 Feb12     (cox brad)SANTANA JR 120 2.50 13% 6.70    
7  CODY'S WISH May07 Mar12       (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 1.60 65% 0.50    
 
CD-9   07/04/2022 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($127K) 3 ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRITAIN'S KITTEN Jun12 May15 Apr23     (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  JUST CALL RAY Jun19 Mar06 Feb04 Jan09   (hiles a)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00    
3  BRIGADIER GENERAL May12 Apr14 Mar04 Jan23   (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 ★    
4  WE ALL SEE IT Jun04 Apr16 Mar19 Feb11   (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
5  GILDED AGE Feb05         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 5.00 11% 8.20    
6  SKATE TO HEAVEN Apr16 Mar19 Jan29 Jan15   (diodoro roberti)COHEN DAVID 118 10.00    
7  WAR CAMPAIGN May28 Apr29       (sims a)LANERIE J 122 8.00    
8  KEEPCALMCARRYON May29         (margolis ste)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 20.00    
9  WARRIOR JOHNY Jun18 May07 Apr14 Mar04 Jan22 (bauer phil)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00 34% 2.00    
10  GLACIAL Jun04 Mar12       (casse nor)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00 31% 2.20    
11  EMIRATES ROAD Jun04 May07 Apr09 Mar12   (walsh br)SANTANA JR 118 10.00    
SCR  HIPPODROME Jul02 Jun17 Jun08 May28 Apr14 (cash l)COURT K 118 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.