Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ferndale
Saturday - August 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
FER-1   WIN (2/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/3)-(2/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    DD (2/3)-(1/4/3) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/3)-(1/4/3)-(5/2/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
FER-2   WIN (1/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/3)-(1/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4/3)-(1/4/3)-(1/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (1/4/3)-(5/2/3) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (1/4/3)-(5/2/3)-(2/4/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
FER-3   WIN (5/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/3)-(5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (5/2/3)-(2/4/1) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (5/2/3)-(2/4/1)-(1/2/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
FER-4   WIN (2/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/1)-(2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (2/4/1)-(1/2/3) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (2/4/1)-(1/2/3)-(4/1/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
FER-5   WIN (1/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/3)-(1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (1/2/3)-(4/1/5) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (1/2/3)-(4/1/5)-(2/5/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
FER-6   WIN (4/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/5)-(4/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/5)-(4/1/5)-(4/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (4/1/5)-(2/5/4) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
FER-7   WIN (2/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/5/4)-(2/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/4)-(2/5/4)-(2/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
FER-1   08/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($9.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HAY JUAN Jul29 Jul23 Jun16 May28 Apr28 (ramos jesu)MONROY FRANCISCO 126 1.20    
2  MIKE OPERATOR Aug06 Jul27 May21 Mar11 Feb28 (aquino angela )HERRERA HUGO 126 3.00 38% 1.60    
3  LIVE A GOOD LIFE Jul04 Jun18 Feb18 Feb11 Feb02 (hof d)SMITH E 126 5.00 24% 3.20    
4  SIR LAUGHALOT Aug11 Jun25 Jun18 Aug26 Aug19 (maelfe)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 1.60    
 
FER-2   08/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($7.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SMOKIN KEN Jun24         (beckne)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 1.80 54% 0.90    
2  SEIGE THE DAY Aug12 Jun18 Feb19 Jan09 Dec01 (aquino angela )HERRERA HUGO 122 2.00    
3  MISSY PARKER Aug09 Jul01 Jun17 Jun10 Aug26 (naranjo salv)MARTIN A 121 5.00 5% 19.00    
4  BIG BAD BRIAN Aug12 Jul04 Jun25 Jul23 Jul16 (craig james )SMITH E 126 8.00 22% 3.60    
5  ZHIVAGO Aug13 Jul29 Jul21 Feb24 Feb11 (greiner g)IRONEYES R 115 3.50    
 
FER-3   08/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DAD BOD Aug12 Aug04 Jul23 Jun24 May21 (greiner gary)FLORES P 126 5.00    
2  SHOCKAZULU Aug12 Jun24 Sep17 Aug12 Jul29 (craig james )SMITH E 126 1.80 29% 2.40    
3  PHANTOMS BOOK Aug09 Jun24 Jun18 Jun10 Aug28 (naranjo s)JENSEN P 121 6.00 9% 9.90    
4  OBVIOUS Jul29 Jul22 Jul08 May28 May12 (ramos jesu)MONROY FRANCISCO 126 2.00    
5  HOLYJAZZ Aug05 Jul15 Jun25 Jun11 May20 (aquino angela )HERRERA HUGO 126 3.50 33% 2.00    
 
FER-4   08/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($3.2K) Purse ($8K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STANLEY RYDER Jul04 Jun17 Sep17 Sep11 Aug26 (beckne)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 5.00 19% 4.20    
2  HAWK HILL Jul30 Jul08 Jun16 May26 Apr29 (ramos jesu)MONROY FRANCISCO 126 1.80 30% 2.30    
3  CABALLERANGO Aug11 Jul12 Jun25 Jun09 Aug10 (craig j)BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 126 6.00    
4  SASQUATCH RIDE Aug04 Jul08 Jun24 Jun10 May21 (grein)CAMACHO-FLORES LEONEL 126 2.00 21% 3.70    
5  SNICKER'N DAN Jul02 Jun18 Oct16 Oct08 Aug27 (beckner l)HERRERA HUGO 126 3.50    
 
FER-5   08/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($7.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ESCAPE FREE (IRE) Jun30 Jun03 Apr21 Apr01 Feb19 (williams gab)MARTIN A 126 2.50 30% 2.30    
2  RIVIERA SUNRISE Aug05 Jul21 Jul02 Jun09 May27 (tamayo isidro)HERRERA HUGO 126 2.00 25% 3.00    
3  OUR GIRL ASHLEY Aug09 Jul14 Jun03 May13   (hof bi)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 122 4.00 22% 3.50    
4  ELECTRIC ELIZABETA Aug12 Jul01 Jun24 Aug28 Aug19 (guerrero emi)SMITH E 126 6.00    
5  ENGEE OMBEE Jul21 Jul02 Jun18 Nov25 Oct29 (hansen roger)FLORES P 126 3.00    
 
FER-6   08/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($15K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  XTRAFINE XTINA Jul04 Jun17 Oct09 Aug26 Aug20 (beckner teri)SMITH E 126 1.60 35% 1.90    
2  BANDON BRIDGE Jul29 Jul01 Jun18 May21 Feb14 (beckner l)HERRERA HUGO 126 10.00    
3  DRAW NEAR Jul23 Jul01 Jun16 Dec02 Nov05 (eaton terr)MONROY FRANCISCO 122 4.00    
4  BETHEL RIDGE Jul04 Jun24 Jun17 Sep17 Aug28 (williams gab)MARTIN A 126 1.80 40% 1.50    
5  TRUE FRIEND Aug11 Jun25 Jan11     (maelfe)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 4.50 5% 19.00    
 
FER-7   08/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($7K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FOYT Jul28 Jul09 May19 Apr08   (beckner l)HERRERA HUGO 126 5.00    
2  HOLY SMOKES         (eaton t)BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 122 8.00 25% 3.10    
3  NICKEY BIRD Aug04 Jul02 Jun04     (ledezm)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 122 3.50    
4  SMOKENSILVER         (beckner l)WEBB B 122 10.00 13% 6.50    
5  ANOTHER STRIKE Jul30 Jul22 May28 May20 May04 (ramos jesu)MONROY FRANCISCO 122 2.00 25% 3.10    
6  SMUGGLER'S COVE Jul22 Jun16 May21 Apr22 Mar17 (eaton ter)IRONEYES R 115 6.00    
SCR  THECHIEFHASTRICKS Aug11 Jul22 Jul02 Jun17 Jun09 (puentes jose)FLORES P 126 4.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.