Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arizona Downs
Monday - August 22, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AZD-4   08/22/2022 2970ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($8.5K) Purse ($10.525K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SCAT ATTACK May07 Mar08 Feb09     (rollins s)KELLENBERGER KODY 120 8.00    
2  AWESOME GALAXY Jul30 Jul11 May07 Apr22 Feb04 (nelson a)BUTTERFLY L 124 2.50 ★    
3  MISS REBEKAH Apr18 Mar28 Mar17 Jan26 Jan06 (barraza rafa)GARCIA ENRIQUE 124 1.80 18% 4.50    
4  WORKIN NINETOFIVE May07 Apr26 Mar24 Mar04 Feb16 (gutierrez juan )LEON A 120 12.00 12% 7.10    
5  BIG AL'S PRINCESS Apr10 Feb20       (garcia jesus)VERGARA P 124 3.50 21% 3.80    
6  PARTY POLICE Jul30 Jul11 Apr22 Apr13 Mar21 (villamar can)CARBAJAL KEVIN 120 3.00 ★    
 
AZD-5   08/22/2022 3300ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($16.025K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOLY TUTTA BELLA Aug08 Apr19 Apr06 Mar11   (campo stacy)MORALES ALLYSSA 119 3.00 10% 8.70    
2  AUTISM WARRIOR Jul18 Apr01 Jan07     (elston brent)ENRIQUEZ D 124 4.50 ★    
3  FIRST PROMISE Aug08 Jul11 Mar28 Mar04 Feb16 (george cynthia)VERGARA P 113 3.50 14% 6.10    
4  MUSICAL GEM Apr03 Mar11 Feb12     (nelson amy)LEON A 122 8.00    
SCR  HOLLYWOOD AS USUAL Apr13 Mar25 Jan25 Jan04   (chattong vich)BAZAN ANTONIO 122 10.00 ★    
6  TENGAS MASTERPIECE Jul30 Jun27 Mar24 Feb16 Feb07 (hartman stan)YBARRA MICHAEL 124 2.50 52% 0.90    
7  IT BETTER BE GOLD         (story chad)GARCIA ENRIQUE 122 5.00    
 
AZD-6   08/22/2022 3960ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($20.425K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUCCESS RATE Aug06 Jul18 Mar30 Mar15 Mar01 (ferguson curt)VERGARA P 122 8.00 ★    
2  D K'S CROWN Aug06 Jul18 Jul04 May28 Apr19 (villamar cande)ENRIQUEZ D 122 0.60 28% 2.60    
SCR  CAUSE AND EFFECT Aug06 Jul18 Jun25 May28 May14 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 122 10.00 12% 7.50    
4  AUTISM CAN DO Aug06 Jul18 Apr18 Feb14 Jan26 (wolf ashlee)YBARRA MICHAEL 122 6.00    
5  DON'TTEASETHETIGER Aug06 Jul18 Apr12 Mar22 Feb28 (barraza rafa)GARCIA ENRIQUE 122 4.50 22% 3.60    
6  ALBANY FRONT Aug13 Aug06 Jul18 Jun25 May06 (gutierrez juan )LEON A 122 5.00 ★    
 
AZD-7   08/22/2022 2970ft DIRT RC0 FAST ALW18025 ($0K) Purse ($18.025K) 3UP ALL PT-
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THIEF IN THE NIGHT Jul30 Jul09 Apr20 Mar09 Feb14 (scott larry )CARBAJAL KEVIN null   ★    
2  MASTER RULER Jul18         (salas eliaza)GARCIA ENRIQUE null   42% 1.40    
3  MINISTERSDON'TLIE Mar12 Feb27 Feb04     (lewis i)YBARRA MICHAEL null   ★    
4  FIGHT ME Aug08 Jul18 Jun27 Apr24 Apr01 (reyes no)BUTTERFLY L null   ★    
5  BIG WAVE BETTY Aug13 Jul23       (perkins franc)BAZAN ANTONIO null      
6  WINDING         (uranga j)VERGARA P null      
SCR  BOTERO         (soto antoni)MORALES ALLYSSA null   34% 2.00    
 
AZD-8   08/22/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 FAST Optional Claiming ($8K) Purse ($14.025K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DON'TPASSTHEPEPPER Aug08 Jun27 Apr26 Apr07 Mar15 (kereluk edward)LEON A 122 3.50    
2  AVA K'S GIRL Aug01 Jul16 Jul11 Jun25 May02 (alvarez sergio)ENRIQUEZ D 124 2.00 21% 3.80    
3  FICETY LADY         (johnson robert )ELLIS DEVON 122 20.00 ★    
4  MULLIGAN Aug01 Jun25 May27 May15 Apr20 (villamar )KELLENBERGER KODY 124 4.00 18% 4.50    
5  PALACE STAR Jul18 Jun25 Apr25 Mar18 Mar10 (perkins fra)MORALES ALLYSSA 122 8.00    
6  JANERO ROSE Jul23 Jun18 May27 May15 Apr29 (ortiz sr)VERGARA P 124 2.50 26% 2.80    
7  SONGOFTHEDESERT Aug08 Apr28 Mar31 Mar16 Mar07 (reyes norma)GARCIA ENRIQUE 122 15.00 10% 8.70    
8  MAYBEE A DIVA Aug01 Jul18 May07 Apr14 Mar27 (williams dew)YBARRA MICHAEL 122 15.00    
 
AZD-9   08/22/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Optional Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.025K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ITS FIVE SOMEWHERE Jul11 Apr18 Mar21 Feb22 Feb01 (elston b)BUTTERFLY L 122 20.00    
2  HIGH FLYIN TIGER Aug15 Aug01 Jul16 Jun27 May06 (perkins fran)GARCIA ENRIQUE 122 15.00    
3  RUN TAPPY Jul10 Jun27 May29 May09 Apr01 (george cynt)MORALES ALLYSSA 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  REDACTION Aug08 Apr18 Apr01 Feb11 Jan18 (campo sta)KELLENBERGER KODY 122 4.00 60% 0.70    
5  OSTINI Jul23 Jul04 May07 Apr19 Mar16 (weaver gordo)CARBAJAL KEVIN 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  CHEF Jul30 Jul09 May02 Mar22 Mar10 (ortiz manuel)YBARRA MICHAEL 122 3.50 7% 14.30    
7  THE PUBLIC HALO Aug08 Jul09 May02 Mar08 Feb14 (kenney dan)VERGARA P 122 12.00    
8  GO FOR A RIDE Aug08 Jul23 Jul11 May06 Mar23 (evans justin)LEON A 124 1.60 ★    
9  WESTFEST Aug14 Jul23 Jul09 Jun13 May12 (evans justin)ENRIQUEZ D 122 5.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.