Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Tampa Bay Downs
Saturday - April 19, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TAM-1   WIN (5/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/1)-(5/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/1)-(5/4/1)-(5/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/1)-(2/3/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/4/1)-(2/3/5/1)-(5/4/8/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-2   WIN (2/3/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/5/1)-(2/3/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/5/1)-(2/3/5/1)-(2/3/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/3/5/1)-(5/4/8/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/3/5/1)-(5/4/8/3)-(5/8/7/4) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
TAM-3   WIN (5/4/8/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/8/3)-(5/4/8/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/8/3)-(5/4/8/3)-(5/4/8/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/8/3)-(5/8/7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/4/8/3)-(5/8/7/4)-(9/6/7/2/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
TAM-4   WIN (5/8/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/8/7/4)-(5/8/7/4/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/8/7/4)-(5/8/7/4/9)-(5/8/7/4/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/8/7/4)-(9/6/7/2/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/8/7/4)-(9/6/7/2/3)-(2/4/8/7) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
TAM-5   WIN (9/6/7/2/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/6/7/2/3)-(9/6/7/2/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/6/7/2/3)-(9/6/7/2/3)-(9/6/7/2/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/6/7/2/3)-(2/4/8/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (9/6/7/2/3)-(2/4/8/7)-(8/9/10/6/5) 100 $1.00 $100 
TAM-6   WIN (2/4/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/4/8/7)-(2/4/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/4/8/7)-(2/4/8/7)-(2/4/8/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/4/8/7)-(8/9/10/6/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/4/8/7)-(8/9/10/6/5)-(1/5/9/4/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
TAM-7   WIN (8/9/10/6/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/9/10/6/5)-(8/9/10/6/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/9/10/6/5)-(8/9/10/6/5)-(8/9/10/6/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/9/10/6/5)-(1/5/9/4/2) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (8/9/10/6/5)-(1/5/9/4/2)-(3/9/5/4/7) 125 $1.00 $125 
TAM-8   WIN (1/5/9/4/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/5/9/4/2)-(1/5/9/4/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/5/9/4/2)-(1/5/9/4/2)-(1/5/9/4/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/5/9/4/2)-(3/9/5/4/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
TAM-9   WIN (3/9/5/4/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/9/5/4/7)-(3/9/5/4/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/9/5/4/7)-(3/9/5/4/7)-(3/9/5/4/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TAM-1   04/19/2025 4290ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($32K) Purse ($28.5K) 3 F PT-12:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRAYED FOR GIRL Apr11 Mar21 Feb05 Dec11 Aug31 (dobber w)FERRER C 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  SECURITYLIGHTNING Mar16 Feb09 Jan25 Dec11 Sep21 (o'connell kat)IORIO MELISSA 122 8.00    
3  MISS INTERPATATION Mar16 Feb28 Jan03     (hardesty lesliely)HESS SARA 118 4.50    
4  DEETZ Feb16 Nov29 Oct05 Aug23 Aug09 (joseph s)GALLARDO A 118 2.50 25% 3.00    
5  UNBRIDLED PEACE Mar28         (arriagada jua)SANTOS ADEMAR 122 3.00 40% 1.50    
6  MADAM MITOLE Apr02 Mar21 Jan26 Dec24 Dec07 (bennett gerald)CAMACHO SAMY 120 2.00    
 
TAM-2   04/19/2025 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($22K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAMAS LULLABYE Apr05 Mar26 Mar12 Feb23 Mar20 (cook devin)SUAREZ JESUS 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  ATOMIC HABITS Apr05 Mar16 Feb28     (arriagada jua)SANTOS ADEMAR 118 3.00 40% 1.50    
3  ALGEBRAINTHEDARK         (reed r)VASQUEZ WILFRED 124 8.00 23% 3.40    
4  STARFALL Mar21         (smith craig )GONZALEZ CESAR 117 8.00    
5  REIGN IN MY HEART Mar19 Jul19 May04 Apr24 Apr06 (cascallares ne)CAMACHO SAMY 124 4.50 8% 11.90    
6  JAANTJE Mar23         (marrero nes)OLIVEROS CHARLE 124 4.50    
7  BONITA DIAMOND Mar26 Feb28 Dec02     (torres pablo)BATISTA A 124 3.50    
8  PIGEON CAY Jan15 Jun30 May31 May04 Aug31 (fisher davi)QUINONEZ ALONSO 124 6.00    
 
TAM-3   04/19/2025 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($54.5K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BELOUNI (FR) Jul20 Jun15 May11 Apr19 Mar02 (brown ch)GALLARDO A 118 2.50    
2  OISHI Mar19 Feb19 Nov29 Oct06 Aug22 (ochoa gerard)CENTENO E 118 30.00    
3  NINJA STAR Mar30 Mar02 Feb01 Jan18 Dec27 (rice kev)RODRIGUEZ O 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  PALAZZI Oct05 Sep07 Jul27 Jun29 Jun01 (casse mark)LEON SONNY 118 3.00 21% 3.80    
5  EXACT ESTIMATE Jan25 Dec28 Mar02 Jan27 Nov12 (brown c)CAMACHO SAMY 118 2.00 29% 2.40    
SCR  LIKE THE KING Dec14 Oct05 Aug23 Jun27 Apr27 (casse)DIAZ RAFAEL 118 5.00    
7  BENVOLIO Mar28 Feb15 Dec27 Dec06 Nov02 (parra hernan)HESS SARA 118 30.00    
8  IT CAN BE DONE Apr06 Mar02 Sep08 Jul21 May25 (sacco d)FERRER C 118 8.00 15% 5.70    
 
TAM-4   04/19/2025 5400ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($23K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOUBLE COSMO GIRL Apr02 Mar08 Jan22 Jan01 Dec04 (rivera franc)GONZALEZ CESAR 111 4.00    
2  ONCE AN EAGLE Mar21 Feb21 Dec29 Dec07 Oct13 (hernandez en)BATISTA A 118 15.00    
3  FOR THE BISCUIT Dec22 Nov05 Oct04 Sep25 Aug24 (sherman a)SHERMAN ALEXANDRA 111 20.00    
4  ONE VIOLENT AFFAIR Mar28 Feb21 Jan22 Jan05 Dec21 (o'connell kath)EVANS CECILY 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  CHEM MAJOR Mar26 Feb23 Jan25 Dec27 Dec18 (escobar m)RODRIGUEZ ANTHONY 118 2.50 59% 0.70    
6  INOUAINTALKINTOME Mar26 Feb07 Jan26 Jan15 Jan04 (torres pa)MALDONADO GABRIEL 118 10.00    
7  PURE ELEGANCE Mar26 Mar14 Feb28 Feb07 Jan24 (torres pablo )VARGAS E 108 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  CALISUE Mar02 Jan12 Dec22 Nov30 Oct26 (campbell joel)CAMACHO SAMY 118 3.00 17% 4.70    
9  SEATTLE CAUSEWAY Mar21 Feb28 Dec07 Nov21 Nov02 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 118 8.00 ★    
 
TAM-5   04/19/2025 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($53K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REAL MIKEY Mar28 Mar07 Feb23 Jan26 Jan12 (lusk )DIAZ RAFAEL 118 30.00    
2  SHADE OF PALE Feb20 Jan11 Oct12 Sep15 Jun15 (brown c)CAMACHO SAMY 118 2.50 9% 10.20    
3  MISS TAPTRESS Mar28 Mar02 Jan26 Dec27 Nov29 (bennett s)FERRER C 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  PLATINUM DIVA Mar22 Feb22 Jan23 Nov09 Oct12 (dini mike)CENTENO E 118 10.00    
5  ARIANA VALENTINA Mar22 Mar05 Feb22 Feb09 Dec14 (aguayo ramon)MENESES MARCOS 118 6.00    
6  SARATOGA GAZE Mar21 Mar05 Feb09 Jan04 Dec20 (barron rory)MARTINEZ W 118 5.00 20% 4.00    
7  MRS. KATZ Mar29 Mar05 Feb22 Jan18 Dec28 (o'connel)GALLARDO A 118 4.50 10% 9.50    
8  VERIFIABLE Mar29 Jan01 Dec11 Nov03 Mar22 (manning j)BRACHO A 118 15.00    
9  DREAMING OF ABBA Mar30 Mar08 Feb01 Jan11 Dec14 (o'connell kathle)LEON SONNY 118 3.50 35% 1.90    
10  VICTORY GIRL Mar29 Mar05 Feb05 Jan19 Dec22 (pimental john )COTTO L 118 30.00    
SCR  LINA (FR)         (lerma)DIAZ RAFAEL 118 4.00    
SCR  LE BEAU Feb20 Dec21 Nov02 Sep08 Aug10 (joseph a)CENTENO E 118 6.00    
SCR  BETULA (GB) Nov30 Sep15       (baumgardner beth)FERRER C 118 8.00    
 
TAM-6   04/19/2025 4620ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($8K) Purse ($21K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WELL CONNECTED Mar07 Feb19 Jan22 Jun20 Jun08 (march william)COTTO L 119 30.00    
2  BALTASAR Mar29 Mar14 Feb22 Jan05 Dec28 (simone v)FERRER C 123 2.50 31% 2.20    
3  THE DOORMAN Mar29 Mar14 Feb26 Jan26 Jan04 (barron r)GALLARDO A 121 4.50    
4  CATATUMBO Mar29 Mar14 Mar05 Feb15 Jan31 (simone m)RODRIGUEZ O 119 5.00 25% 2.90    
5  OLD TOWN ROAD Apr02 Mar19 Mar12 Feb28 Feb07 (arriagada juan)CAMACHO SAMY 123 2.00    
6  UNDALAY Apr09 Mar19 Feb19 Feb07 Jan12 (richards rena)SANTOS ADEMAR 119 12.00    
7  SUPREME DOMINANCE Mar21 Mar09 Feb15 Jan29 Jan17 (goodwin n)WILLIAMS JO 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
8  HUNTERS GHOST Mar02 Jan05 Dec28 Dec20 Dec06 (arnett g)MENESES MARCOS 119 6.00 17% 4.80    
 
TAM-7   04/19/2025 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($53K) 3 ALL PT- 3:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MR. FUNTASTICO Mar29 Mar07 Feb12     (aguayo ramon)FERRER C 119 6.00    
  (by FUNTASTIC out of KALANI by AFLEET ALEX)
2  NUK SOO KOW Jan18         (terranov)RODRIGUEZ O 119 15.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of ENAMORED by CURLIN)
3  CAFE LA PAIX (FR) Feb21 Feb01 Nov05     (moreno-barb)OLIVEROS CHARLE 119 30.00    
  (by HELLO YOUMZAIN out of ILANGA by PENNY'S PICNIC)
4  TIZ FERVOR Mar29 Mar02       (mott i)CENTENO E 119 4.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of TIZ SO SWEET by TIZNOW)
5  BATTLE ANTHEM Mar08 Feb01       (sacco gre)MALDONADO GABRIEL 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of GLORIOUS CHANT by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  PERSISTEN Mar22 Mar01 Feb08     (avila)DIAZ RAFAEL 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of DIAMOND MAKER by MINESHAFT)
7  MR BUSINESS         (schuh tim)BRACHO A 119 20.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of CALENTE by STRONG MANDATE)
8  MAYOR OF MIDNIGHT (IRE)         (brown c)CAMACHO SAMY 119 2.00 34% 2.00    
  (by LOPE DE VEGA out of AMERIQUE by GALILEO (ARG))
9  APPLE JAX Nov29         (brown ch)GALLARDO A 119 3.50 30% 2.40    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of AUTHENTICITY by IN REALITY (GB))
10  HYDRUS Mar13         (ryan s)LEON SONNY 119 8.00 11% 8.40    
  (by VEKOMA out of ELUSIVELY by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
SCR  NOBLE SOUL Aug05         (rice kev)RODRIGUEZ O 119 10.00    
  (by MINESHAFT out of INSPIRED SAY EYE by TWO PUNCH)
SCR  DAVID H Mar29 Sep04       (rountree cat)MENESES MARCOS 119 30.00    
  (by WIN WIN WIN out of SWEET STORY by MASS MEDIA)
SCR  RULE SEVENTY SIX         (walsh)DIAZ RAFAEL 119 6.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of BENVENUTTA by TAPIT)
 
TAM-8   04/19/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DAVID'S SONGS Apr03 Mar06 Jan29 Jan15 Dec13 (mcgoey mo)MALDONADO GABRIEL 123 3.00 27% 2.60    
2  BABA'S BABY BOY Apr02 Mar22 Mar07 May04 Apr21 (ellebracht gary)FERRER C 125 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  PICCATA PRINCE Apr04 Mar29 Mar14 Feb26 Feb05 (spanabel ke)SPANABEL SKYLER 123 30.00    
4  ZALFIERRO Apr04 Mar05 Nov22 Oct17 Sep29 (lusk brian)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 123 6.00 11% 8.40    
5  GUCCI BOY Apr04 Mar19 Feb23 Jan29 Dec28 (carrascojr vic)CAMACHO SAMY 123 2.50 26% 2.80    
6  IN THE BLUE Nov03 Oct25 Sep13 Aug16 Aug03 (alvarado r)TORRES R 123 20.00    
SCR  CENTERFOLD GUY Apr13 Mar30 Mar12 Feb26 Jan29 (dobber arnou)BELISARIO JUAN 108 8.00    
8  SEVEN ANNIVERSARY Apr04 Mar15 Feb09 Jan25 Jan11 (yanez reynal)GONZALEZ CESAR 116 12.00    
9  MR. BONES Apr04 Jun19 May20 May01 Apr12 (rice kev)RODRIGUEZ O 123 6.00 15% 5.80    
10  AIN'T NONCENTS Apr06 Feb22 Jan22 Jan01 Dec13 (gardea abra)QUINONEZ ALONSO 118 12.00    
11  IM STILL BRAVE Feb09 Jan25 Jan11 Aug23 Aug02 (torres pablo )VARGAS E 113 30.00    
 
TAM-9   04/19/2025 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($53K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OSKAR MARTINEZ (IRE) Mar28 Mar02 Jan30 Jan03 Dec01 (delacour arnaud)CENTENO E 118 4.50    
2  NOBLE FACTOR Apr04 Mar02 Feb08 Jan18 May03 (rodrigue)RODRIGUEZ O 118 4.50    
3  KANSAS CAT (ARG) Mar19 Mar07 Feb08     (barbazoniii lest)LEON SONNY 118 4.00 29% 2.40    
4  SESAME SEED BAGEL Mar28 Feb22 Jul12 Jun16 Apr27 (rodri)DIAZ RAFAEL 118 8.00 6% 14.40    
5  EDDIE THE GREAT Mar29 Mar14 Feb08 Jan18 Jan11 (hunt donald)HESS SARA 118 10.00 17% 4.70    
6  SPECIALAGENTJONSON Mar26 Mar02 Feb02 Dec14 Nov29 (downing )GALLARDO A 118 20.00    
7  DENYING Mar29 Mar07 Feb19 Jan22 Jan11 (ryan s)SANTOS ADEMAR 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  PEACE NOT WAR Mar28 Mar05 Feb02 Jan08 Dec18 (bennett gera)BATISTA A 118 10.00    
9  UNCLE TRULY Mar07 Jan26 Nov29 Oct12 Sep14 (arriagada juan)CAMACHO SAMY 118 3.00 18% 4.70    
SCR  CLOUD STORAGE Mar26 Feb23 Jan15 Dec13 Nov23 (feliciano r)SPIETH S 113 30.00    
11  BIG Z OG Apr05 Feb07 Jan18 Dec02 Oct19 (crook-demasi kat)LEON SONNY 118 8.00    
SCR  CLASSIC CREATION Mar02 Feb01 Oct31 Sep29 Aug23 (terranova john)CAMACHO SAMY 118 2.50    
SCR  OMNI KING Mar01 Dec14 Nov09 Oct11 Aug12 (kelly blake)FERRER C 118 3.00    
SCR  MY CAJUN LADY Mar19 Feb28 Jan24 Jan12 Nov07 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 113 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.