Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Charles Town
Friday - January 17, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CT-1   WIN (6/1/3/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/3/8)-(6/1/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/3/8)-(6/1/3/8)-(6/1/3/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/1/3/8)-(8/7/2/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/1/3/8)-(8/7/2/3)-(2/1/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CT-2   WIN (8/7/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/7/2/3)-(8/7/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/7/2/3)-(8/7/2/3)-(8/7/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/7/2/3)-(2/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/7/2/3)-(2/1/7)-(9/8/7/10) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CT-3   WIN (2/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/7)-(2/1/3/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/1/7)-(2/1/3/7)-(2/1/3/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/1/7)-(9/8/7/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/1/7)-(9/8/7/10)-(4/1/2/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CT-4   WIN (9/8/7/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/8/7/10)-(9/8/3/7/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (9/8/7/10)-(9/8/3/7/10)-(9/8/3/7/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (9/8/7/10)-(4/1/2/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (9/8/7/10)-(4/1/2/5)-(5/3/2/6/1) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CT-5   WIN (4/1/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/1/2/5)-(4/1/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/1/2/5)-(4/1/2/5)-(4/1/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/1/2/5)-(5/3/2/6/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/1/2/5)-(5/3/2/6/1)-(1/8/4/2/3) 100 $1.00 $100 
CT-6   WIN (5/3/2/6/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/3/2/6/1)-(5/3/2/6/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/3/2/6/1)-(5/3/2/6/1)-(5/3/2/6/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/3/2/6/1)-(1/8/4/2/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (5/3/2/6/1)-(1/8/4/2/3)-(2/3/9/1/10) 125 $1.00 $125 
CT-7   WIN (1/8/4/2/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/8/4/2/3)-(1/8/4/2/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/8/4/2/3)-(1/8/4/2/3)-(1/8/4/2/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/8/4/2/3)-(2/3/9/1/10) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (1/8/4/2/3)-(2/3/9/1/10)-(3/1/5/7/4) 125 $1.00 $125 
CT-8   WIN (2/3/9/1/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/3/9/1/10)-(2/3/9/1/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/3/9/1/10)-(2/3/9/1/10)-(2/3/9/1/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/3/9/1/10)-(3/1/5/7/4) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
CT-9   WIN (3/1/5/7/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/1/5/7/4)-(3/1/5/7/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/1/5/7/4)-(3/1/5/7/4)-(3/1/5/7/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CT-1   01/17/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($14.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LEO AND ROYAL Dec07 Nov25 Oct28 Oct02 Aug19 (knudsen kent)MAWING A 122 4.50 16% 5.30    
2  YO NESSROUNDONKERN Nov23 Nov02 Oct11 Sep25 Aug15 (jones e)ACOSTA D 122 20.00    
3  TOP OF THE MINT Dec12 Oct31 Oct10 Aug16 Jul27 (jones michael )CHILO MAXIMO 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  HURRICANE ALERT Jan03 Nov30 Nov09 Oct25 Sep27 (brown w)BOCACHICA O 122 4.00    
5  SUBJECT TO CHANGE Dec13 Dec04 Nov21 Oct31 Oct10 (spriggs)MALDONADO CHRISTIAN 115 20.00    
6  TIMELY PROSPECT Dec27 Sep01 Feb16 Jan31 Dec13 (russell b)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 0.60 59% 0.70    
7  INDIMAAJ Dec07 Oct31 Sep21 Aug22 Jul19 (knudsen kent)THORPE DARIUS 122 15.00    
8  HOME SCHOOL (IRE) Nov16 Oct27 Oct04 Sep21 Aug31 (serey j)LUGO JR 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
CT-2   01/17/2025 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($27.8K) 3 F PT- 7:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POPPY MAC Dec12 Nov20 Nov02 Oct24 Oct05 (sigler ron)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 122 2.50    
  (by JUBA out of CANDY MAN'S GIRL by CHARITABLE MAN)
2  SARONIC BAY Dec12         (brown w)BOCACHICA O 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BULLSBAY out of RUSHLYNS TRIBUTE by FORESTRY)
3  GOLDEN PLUNGE Dec12 Nov20 Oct24     (atkins)ARAUJO VICENTE 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOLDEN YEARS out of PLUNGEINTHEMOAT by WINDSOR CASTLE)
4  RUBY BAY Dec06         (jones e)ACOSTA D 122 15.00    
  (by BULLSBAY out of PEPPER BAY by BOP)
5  BUTTERFLY EFFECT Dec12         (brown ronney)LEWIS M 122 20.00    
  (by BULLSBAY out of MICHAELS BUTTERFLY by JUMP START)
6  KEEP SHINING ON US Dec12 Nov20 Oct24 Oct05 Sep12 (petty kristy)LARROSA G 122 5.00    
  (by JUBA out of CAMERON STREET by DENIS OF CORK)
7  ALICE'S MOON Dec12 Nov20 Oct12 Sep05 Aug15 (figgins)MALDONADO CHRISTIAN 117 6.00 15% 5.80    
  (by ALDRIN out of JAMIE'S SILENT BID by BANKER'S GOLD)
8  FELL IN LOVE Dec06         (runco jef)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 1.20 58% 0.70    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of MISS HENNY PENNY by HALF OURS)
 
CT-3   01/17/2025 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($20K) Purse ($29.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  XCELLENT START Jan03 Dec13 Nov16 Oct31 Oct12 (jones e)ACOSTA D 120 3.00 25% 3.10    
2  SARAH'S CANDY CAMP Dec20 Dec13 Nov15 Nov07 Oct25 (murdock s)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 120 3.50 40% 1.50    
3  NO LOVE FOR JUBA May19 May05 Apr12 Mar22 Mar09 (sigler ro)BOCACHICA J 120 4.00 ★    
4  BUBBA GRUMP Jan03 Nov22 Oct31 Aug24 Jul19 (contreras j)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 6.00    
5  LOGSTRADAMUS Nov15 Oct25 Oct04 Aug24 Aug10 (meehan )NUNEZ MAURICIO 120 6.00    
6  FANCY CONCHO Jan03 Dec13 Nov22 Nov07 Oct31 (grams timothy )REYNOLDS C 120 4.50    
7  JUNGLE BEAST Dec13 Nov16 Oct31 Sep19 Aug31 (contreras )LATCHMAN RESHAWN 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
CT-4   01/17/2025 2970ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($13.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRETTY CASTLE Nov30 Nov20 Jan11 Dec14 Aug04 (boykins kevin)RODRIGUEZ V 119 50.00    
2  BEST HOP IS A DROP Dec13 Nov23 Oct18 Sep21 Sep14 (atkins mi)RADCLIFFE ANTHONY 117 12.00    
3  RIP N ROLL Dec11 Nov29 Nov07     (wilhelm)NUNEZ MAURICIO 124 1.60 ★    
4  GAMBLING FEVER Jan03 Dec13 Jan26 Dec13 Nov10 (rangel ri)HERNANDEZ H 124 30.00    
5  MIDNIGHT STROLLER Nov27 Sep24 Sep10 Jul31 Jun19 (shuler john )BATISTA A 124 5.00    
6  DADIO Jan04         (hess jacob )ESPINOZA ALEXIS 118 20.00    
7  HUMOROUS Nov15         (mckee cyn)BOCACHICA J 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  SPIRITUAL HORIZONS         (straughn wil)LEWIS M 122 15.00 34% 2.00    
9  EL MORITO Dec13 Nov23 Oct26 Oct05 Sep26 (mangual manolo)CRUZ ANGEL 124 1.40 41% 1.40    
10  JOHN'S GLORY Dec13 Sep26 Jun28 May04   (malgarini mawing)MAWING A 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
 
CT-5   01/17/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($16.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RAMSEY Dec13 Nov22 Oct11 Sep12 Aug27 (joy j)STANLEY O 122 4.50 16% 5.30    
2  THE HEIGHTS Jan02 Dec20 Nov29 Sep08 Jul27 (serey j)LUGO JR 122 3.00 12% 7.60    
3  RUN ROCKY RUN Jan02 Nov08 Oct19 Sep19 Sep02 (adorno jean)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 12.00    
4  ALLIED ATTACK Dec14 Nov26 Oct02 Aug16 Jul14 (joy j)RODRIGUEZ V 122 5.00 43% 1.30    
5  WILLIAM'S CAUSE Sep20 Sep07 Jun10 Mar29 Feb28 (jones michael )CHILO MAXIMO 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TOUR GUIDE Feb04 Nov24       (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 2.50    
7  VOODOO DEVIL Dec14 Nov15 Oct30 Sep19 Jun26 (knudsen kent)THORPE DARIUS 122 15.00    
8  GRAFT Nov10 Sep14 Aug30 Jul06 May26 (siculie)GONZALEZ LUIS 122 20.00    
9  ORANGE JUICE Dec13 Nov16 Oct31 Sep12 Aug24 (viands stace)LEWIS M 122 6.00    
 
CT-6   01/17/2025 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($27.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CANO'S BABY Jan03 Jul20 Jul11 Jun07 May03 (pennella rhea )CHILO MAXIMO 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by WEAVE IT TO ME out of JENNY REDI MADE by HERO'S TRIBUTE)
2  UNION BRANCH         (shuler r)HO WESLEY 116 15.00 5% 18.00    
  (by JUBA out of JENNYS CREEK by GREELEY'S GALAXY)
3  SHOOK ME ALL NIGHT Dec11 Nov20 Sep26 Aug16 Jul20 (perry lawrence )PELTROCHE F 124 2.50 28% 2.60    
  (by JUBA out of SUZY MOONLIGHT by BLAME)
4  PEDAL TO THE MOON Jan03 Dec13 Dec06 Nov23 Nov07 (pyke jose)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 124 20.00    
  (by ALDRIN out of GASPEDAL by FIBER SONDE)
5  GHOSTLY LEO Nov29 Jul20 Jul06 Jun07 May17 (gazzie)ARAUJO VICENTE 124 3.00 45% 1.20    
  (by GATTOPARDO out of RAYO LASER by GHOSTZAPPER)
6  MEGS GOLDEN BOY Dec11 Nov16 Nov07 Oct17 Oct05 (boykins kevi)BATISTA A 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOLDEN YEARS out of MEGSTONE by STROLL)
7  PAINT THE ALLEY Jan03         (gomez r)LARROSA G 116 15.00    
  (by LUKES ALLEY out of DEVONSPAINTEDLADY by DEVON DEPUTY)
8  GRANDPA JOE Dec11 Nov16 Oct26 Feb15 Feb01 (craig armonte)THORPE DARIUS 124 4.50    
  (by KOBE'S BACK out of SECRET GARDEN by WEIGELIA)
9  MASON ALEXANDER Dec06 Nov16 Oct17 Sep26   (barahona is)ESPINOZA ALEXIS 124 50.00    
  (by FIBER SONDE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  ABOLITIONIST         (brown r)MALDONADO CHRISTIAN 111 3.50    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of GRACEWOOD by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  BOLD DESERT Jan10 Dec06 Oct25 Oct12 Sep21 (johnson dewayn)CHILO MAXIMO 116 5.00    
  (by THREE CHOPT ROAD out of DOUBLE DESERT by DESERT WINE)
 
CT-7   01/17/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($14.4K) 3UP M/F PT-10:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KAZ MUSIC Jan08 Dec20 Nov23 Nov13 Oct09 (albright )HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 3.50 28% 2.50    
2  BREAKING RULES Jan10 Dec04 Nov14 Oct26 Oct03 (jones e)ACOSTA D 124 6.00 9% 10.60    
3  BEST VIRGINIA Jan03 Dec11 Nov20 Nov01 Oct04 (brown ronney)LEWIS M 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  MOON ME AGAIN Nov24 Nov10 Oct27 Sep29 Aug28 (gilbert julia)GILBERT KYLE 124 8.00 16% 5.40    
5  MY JO JO Dec20 Dec07 Oct26 Oct10 Sep19 (iannotti )BOCACHICA J 122 15.00    
6  PARTY MONSTER Dec06 Nov06 Sep21 Sep07 Aug17 (iannotti i)HO WESLEY 124 4.00    
7  MO TRAFFIC Jan02 Dec18 Dec04 Nov07 Sep20 (stites flint )THORPE DARIUS 124 4.50    
8  WILL OR WON'T Dec06 Nov08 Mar08 Jan25 Dec08 (kreise)LOPEZ EDUARDO 122 15.00 19% 4.30    
9  CRICKET WEST Dec16 Dec06 Nov06 Sep22 Sep05 (m)YANCAPALLO SHIRLE 120 20.00    
10  CATCH THE KITTEN Dec29 Dec11 Nov17 Oct18 Sep21 (keil cait)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 6.00    
 
CT-8   01/17/2025 2970ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($28.8K) 3UP ALL PT-10:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOLD ROCK Nov23 Nov15 Oct25 Oct04 Sep13 (figgins)MALDONADO CHRISTIAN 111 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  MOONLIT NOTION Nov15         (grams timothy )REYNOLDS C 116 1.00 35% 1.90    
3  YANKEE DOODLE KID Dec07         (brown ronney)LEWIS M 118 6.00 33% 2.00    
4  CEDAR RUNS FIBER Jan03 Nov29 Nov15 Nov07 Sep21 (boykins kevin)RODRIGUEZ V 124 15.00    
5  MAJESTY'S COWBOY Dec08 Oct08 Sep24 Sep10 Aug25 (shuler john )BATISTA A 120 30.00    
6  SHOW TIME ALLEN Dec13 Nov06 Sep27 Aug24 Aug03 (harrison )RADCLIFFE ANTHONY 113 12.00    
7  ROMANTIC WARRIOR Dec07 Oct26 Oct05 Sep19 Aug22 (lewis r)LARROSA G 120 4.50    
SCR  HARLEY SIOUX Nov06 Sep27 Aug15 Jul12 Mar28 (straugh)NUNEZ MAURICIO 120 15.00    
SCR  STORMIN' RUNNER Oct26 Oct05 Sep04 Aug24   (lucas anthony)CHILO MAXIMO 116 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  SHUFFLE Nov07 Oct18 Aug15 Jul11   (rofe jean)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
CT-9   01/17/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($13.3K) 3UP ALL PT-11:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KHAKI JACK Dec19 Sep25 Aug23 Aug02 Jun27 (aguirre j)HO WESLEY 124 5.00 15% 5.60    
2  SMOOTH RICO Nov21 Nov01 Oct11 Jul24 Jun18 (johnson dewayn)CHILO MAXIMO 122 15.00    
3  OVERLY CRITICAL Dec13 Nov27 Nov14 Nov01 Oct17 (jones e)ACOSTA D 122 1.20 52% 0.90    
4  TAPIO (IRE) Dec13 Oct10 Sep21 Aug22 May25 (viands )MALDONADO CHRISTIAN 115 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  QUALIFLY Dec13 May09 Mar15 Mar02 Feb08 (sanderson wade )RODRIGUEZ V 122 6.00 11% 8.10    
6  AUBURN MILL Dec12 Nov21 Oct25 Oct10 Sep21 (adorno jean)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 12.00    
7  READYSEEKGO Dec04 Nov20 Nov05 Oct14 Sep01 (knoblauch)RADCLIFFE ANTHONY 117 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  PAPI ON ICE Dec12 Nov26 Nov12 Oct29 Sep30 (hillegass ale)THORPE DARIUS 124 12.00    
9  HENDRIX Dec10 Nov20 Nov03 Oct02 Sep11 (fiesman r)HERNANDEZ H 122 15.00    
10  BATTLE OF BASTOGNE Dec12 Nov14 Nov01 Oct19 Sep20 (bailon ne)BOCACHICA J 124 10.00    
SCR  RAGTIME RICHES Dec13 Nov14 Nov01 Oct03 Sep02 (gillespie ryan )BOCACHICA O 122 12.00    
SCR  REBELDE Dec13 Nov01 Oct17 Aug16 Jul21 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 124 3.00    
SCR  MON GATEAU Dec14 Nov27 Nov02 Oct26 Oct03 (brown ron)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 3.50    
SCR  BONNIE BILL Dec14 Nov23 Nov02 Sep21 Aug17 (shanley t)RADCLIFFE ANTHONY 115 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.