Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Friday - October 11, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-2   WIN (5/3/1/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/3/1/2)-(5/3/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/3/1/2)-(5/3/1/2)-(5/3/1/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
ARP-3   WIN (1/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/3)-(1/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4/3)-(1/4/3)-(1/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (1/4/3)-(5/2/3)-(1/2/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ARP-4   WIN (5/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/3)-(5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (5/2/3)-(1/2/3)-(9/7/5/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ARP-5   WIN (1/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/3)-(1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (1/2/3)-(9/7/5/6)-(1/5/3/8/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ARP-6   WIN (9/7/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/7/5/6)-(9/7/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/7/5/6)-(9/7/5/6)-(9/7/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/7/5/6)-(1/5/3/8/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ARP-7   WIN (1/5/3/8/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/5/3/8/2)-(1/5/3/8/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/5/3/8/2)-(1/5/3/8/2)-(1/5/3/8/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-2   10/11/2024 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BLUE SKYE JADE Sep28 Sep14 Sep02 Aug03 Jul13 (williams )IRONEYES R 119 6.00 20% 4.00    
2  TAP THE BRAKES Oct05 Sep16 Aug30 Aug17 Jul29 (arceo sal)MEDINA ANGEL 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  JUSTIN SPEIGHT Sep15 Aug24 Aug11 Jun29 Jun14 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 3.50 28% 2.50    
4  EURO TRACKING Sep28 Sep15 Aug23 Jun05 May13 (vicchrilli)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 4.50    
5  ITS A DEAL Sep22 Aug24 Aug03 Jun29 May27 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 124 2.50 30% 2.30    
6  OUR CLOVER GAL Sep29 Sep15 Sep08 May17 Apr27 (ibanez albe)VORRATH VALENTE 121 8.00    
7  MUSKET POWDER Sep21 Sep02 Aug24 Aug18 Jul27 (scudder jr)ARANA MINOR 124 6.00    
 
ARP-3   10/11/2024 4620ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROCHESTER'S FINEST Sep22 Sep08 Aug31 Aug18 Aug04 (kemper kerry)RAMOS B 124 3.00 44% 1.30    
2  STREET BEHAVIOR Sep21 Sep06 Aug03 Jun29 Jun16 (mitchell chris )ARANA MINOR 124 2.50    
3  ETHAN Sep28 Aug10 Jul20 Jun30 May04 (lavanway )IRONEYES R 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
4  MAJESTIC LIAISON Sep21 Sep01 Aug30 Aug18 Jul27 (mckinney kyn)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 3.50 31% 2.20    
5  FLY NIGHTLY Sep28 Sep05 Aug25 Aug04 Jul27 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 124 4.50    
 
ARP-4   10/11/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SASSY B KEEN Sep27 Sep20 Sep09 Aug23 Jul29 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 124 6.00    
2  NORTHWIND Sep28 Sep06 Aug10 Jul31 Jul06 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 4.50 23% 3.40    
3  STAYIN' OUT LATE Sep22 Sep01 Aug17 Aug10 Jul20 (mitchell chris )ARANA MINOR 124 8.00 13% 6.70    
4  COPPER SKY Oct05 Sep06 Aug31 Jun30 Jun15 (rushton te)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 3.50    
5  ARMAVIR Sep28 Sep06 Jul14 Jun01 May11 (thompson )IRONEYES R 119 2.00 43% 1.30    
 
ARP-5   10/11/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($18.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIFFANY'S FERRARI Sep27 Sep14 Aug14 Jul23 Jun30 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 122 2.50 42% 1.40    
2  JILL'S LEMON DROP Jun30 Jun02 May18 Apr23 Apr01 (dieter da)MEDINA ANGEL 124 4.50 19% 4.20    
3  COLLIER Sep01 Aug03 Jul11 Jun23 Jun06 (rushton te)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 6.00 6% 15.10    
4  KONA KINLEY Sep27 Sep13 Jun23 Jun15 May27 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 122 3.50    
5  CREAM PUFF REAPER Sep27 Sep14 Aug13 Jul06 Jun09 (hibdon n)HAAR NATHAN 122 2.00    
 
ARP-6   10/11/2024 3630ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($8K) Purse ($12.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROCKIN MARIE Sep21 Jul14 Jun30 Jun02 May04 (long vaughn)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 3.50    
SCR  TRIP TO FREEDOM Sep27 Sep13 Sep01 Aug18 Aug04 (dieter da)MEDINA ANGEL 124 3.00    
3  DOLLY DIMPLE Sep29 Sep06 Aug17 Jul20 Jun23 (thompson )IRONEYES R 119 8.00    
4  FLATTER ME ZEN Sep29 Sep13 Aug04 May04 Apr02 (childs russe)CARILLO DANIEL 124 10.00    
5  LOW DOSE Sep22 Sep08 Aug30 Aug17 Jul14 (mitchell chr)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 12.00 14% 6.00    
6  JUST REMEMBER Sep11 Aug20 Jul30 Jul10 Sep25 (hall mon)SEESTHEGROUND KOBE 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  ALWAYS A TIZ Aug24 Jul20 Jun16 Jun02 May19 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50 19% 4.40    
SCR  MIRAGE CODE Sep29 Aug04 Jul14 Jun15 May10 (childs russe)GONZALEZ PEDRO 122 6.00    
9  HEAR ME ROAR Aug04 Jul14 Jun16 May12 Apr27 (rust terri)RAMOS B 124 2.00 32% 2.10    
 
ARP-7   10/11/2024 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($11.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHEELER DEALER Sep21 Sep07 Aug19 Aug09 Jul13 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 121 1.00 34% 2.00    
2  DIVINE TASK Sep04 Aug26 Aug14 Jul31 Jul17 (hall monk)CARILLO DANIEL 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  THIRTYMINUTEMASS Sep21 Sep07 Sep01 Aug10 Jul13 (martinez a)CARDOSO DAVID 124 8.00 16% 5.50    
4  JUST PLAIN ORNERY Sep20 Aug18 Jul27 Jul13 Jul03 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 4.00    
5  THUNDERSHOOK Sep28 Sep14 Sep01 Jun30 Jun10 (dieter da)MEDINA ANGEL 124 3.50 26% 2.90    
6  NOOGE Sep01 Aug24 Aug17 Aug04 Jun22 (mckinney kyn)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 10.00    
7  COWBOY DON Sep22 Aug05 Jul20 Jun15 May27 (mcdonald william )RAMOS B 124 2.50    
8  HOWBEIT Sep21 Sep08 Aug25 Jul27 Jul13 (kemper ke)IRONEYES R 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
9  CREDIT RATING Sep20 Sep07 Aug25 Jul21 Jul13 (rushton st)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 3.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.