Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Century Downs Tb
Sunday - October 22, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CTD-4   WIN (1) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
CTD-5   WIN (3/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/2)-(3/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
CTD-6   WIN (1/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/6)-(1/6) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
CTD-7   WIN (2/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/1)-(2/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
CTD-8   WIN (5/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/1)-(5/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (5/1)-(7/3/2)-(6/2/8/9) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CTD-9   WIN (7/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/3/2)-(7/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/3/2)-(7/3/2)-(7/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/3/2)-(6/2/8/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CTD-10   WIN (6/2/8/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/8/9)-(6/2/8/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/8/9)-(6/2/8/9)-(6/2/8/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CTD-4   10/22/2023 5610ft DIRT RC11 FAST Birdcatcher Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 4:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUDDENLY FAMOUS Sep30 Sep16 Aug04 Jul21   (hedge ric)ZENTENO JR 124 6.00 49% 1.00    
  (by CAR TALK out of SUDDEN by SPEED JARO (FR))
2  GRATED COCONUT Oct14 Aug25 Aug05     (smith cra)WHITEHALL ANTONIO 121 8.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of HOLIDAY DIVA by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  ITSALLGOODMAN Oct07 Sep16 Aug25 Aug05 Jul21 (anderson gonzal)NELSON DANE 124 0.20    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of GEISHA PEEBLES by FIRST SAMURAI)
4  SAWCHUK Sep30 Sep16 Sep01     (davies deann)PRESCOD N'RICO 121 10.00    
  (by EDISON out of THE CAT'S AFFAIR by TALE OF THE CAT)
 
CTD-5   10/22/2023 4950ft DIRT RC11 FAST Freedom Purse ($50K) 2 F PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KULSUM Sep30 Sep16 Sep01 Aug19 Aug04 (brown r)NELSON DANE 120 10.00    
  (by IT'S NO JOKE out of PRETTY GOLDEN by FORMAL GOLD)
2  MORNING RAIN Sep16 Sep01       (griev)GASKIN ZAVIER 123 1.80 20% 4.00    
  (by GAYEGO out of CALL ME CHARM by TRIBAL RULE)
3  SILKSTONE Oct07 Aug25 Aug05 Jul21   (rycrof)ASENCIO MARIANO 123 0.80 56% 0.80    
  (by BIRDSTONE out of SILKWORM by DIXIE UNION)
4  BROKEN PROMISES Sep16 Sep01 Aug19     (kingston kar)PRESCOD N'RICO 123 4.50    
  (by MATT'S BROKEN VOW out of HEART'S OF GOLD by GOLDEN MISSILE)
 
CTD-6   10/22/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6K) Purse ($10.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MONEY MUNCHER Oct01 Sep01 Jul30 Jul01 Jun03 (nicholson da)NATERA KEIHTON 120 1.20 50% 1.00    
SCR  TRICKY SPEEDSTER Sep23 Aug25 Aug12 Jul16 Jul01 (nichols)CHASE RICHARD 118 8.00    
3  BORN ON FIRE Oct08 Oct01 Sep17 Sep01 Jun10 (bell ken)BRYAN D 120 20.00    
4  MY BOY CHRISTIAN Aug23 Aug08 Jul17 Jul05 Jun26 (ward anderson)LUNAN RICHARD 123 3.50    
5  TEE CLASS Oct09 Sep16 Sep09 Aug30 Aug01 (brown)GASKIN ZAVIER 118 15.00    
6  OMEGASSHOOTINGSTAR Oct08 Sep23 Aug12 Jul22 Jul01 (h)GRIFFITH DELANE 118 3.00 15% 5.60    
 
CTD-7   10/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($12.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAKE CHARGE GWEN Sep30 Sep16 Sep10 Aug19 Aug13 (robertson je)PRESCOD N'RICO 125 3.00 17% 4.90    
2  WITT'S TENNY TEN Oct14 Oct01 Sep12 Aug22 Aug08 (gaski)GASKIN ZAVIER 120 3.50 45% 1.20    
3  BABS DELIGHT Sep16 Sep01 Jul09 Jun09 May12 (grieves ro)BALGOBIN KEISHAN 125 4.00    
4  STOLEN JEWEL Oct08 Sep09 Aug25 Aug04 Jul01 (grieves ron)NELSON DANE 125 1.80    
5  CAPA BELLA Oct08 Sep16 Aug18 Aug05 Jul23 (robertso)GUERRERO FRANCISCO 125 5.00    
 
CTD-8   10/22/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($23K) 3 ALL PT- 5:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOUSEAWHATISEA Oct01 Sep17 Aug26 Jul22 Jun30 (frey carso)RIZO ALEXIS 122 3.50 26% 2.90    
SCR  NORTHERN JEWEL Oct14 Sep30 Sep23 Sep09 Aug25 (cone rodn)ZENTENO JR 122 8.00    
3  READYTOTAPNSING Oct01 Sep23 Sep09 Aug25 Aug13 (frey carson)NATERA KEIHTON 122 3.00    
4  SAXON SAGA Oct07 Sep23 Sep13 Aug29 Aug07 (anderson gonz)CUMBERBATCH R 122 6.00    
5  FOUR O SIX CREED Oct01 Sep17 Aug25 Aug13 Jul29 (kingston kar)PRESCOD N'RICO 122 2.00 41% 1.40    
6  KAUAI DAN Oct14 Sep30 Sep17 Aug26 Aug04 (smith rob)NELSON DANE 122 4.00    
 
CTD-9   10/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($3.5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BONNIE AND MOE Aug26 Aug11 Jul23     (petrowski jo)NATERA KEIHTON 122 30.00    
2  SHES A COOL CAT Oct15 Sep24 Aug26 Aug19 Jul30 (davies de)WHITEHALL ANTONIO 122 6.00 6% 14.70    
3  HERE'S LEXIE Sep24 Sep01 Aug19 Jul29 Jul29 (nichols)CHASE RICHARD 120 2.50 17% 4.90    
4  DARKCLOUDOFSMOKE Oct15 Sep24       (k)GRIFFITH DELANE 117 15.00    
5  MILITARY SASS Sep24 Sep01 Aug13 Jul23 Jun09 (ryc)GONZALEZ ALONZO 122 10.00    
6  GWIZZ Oct14 Oct01 May07     (smith)GASKIN ZAVIER 120 6.00    
7  GOTTALOVETHATGIRL Oct15 Sep06 Aug14     (kingston kar)PRESCOD N'RICO 122 3.00 49% 1.00    
SCR  FIRST WILDCAT         (o'hagan )GUERRERO FRANCISCO 122 4.50    
 
CTD-10   10/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAVORITE LIGHT Oct14 Oct01 Sep13 Sep04 Aug09 (brown shelle)NATERA KEIHTON 120 6.00    
2  LAHUN Oct15 Sep17 Jul29 Jul01 Jun09 (biggs sey)WHITEHALL ANTONIO 120 2.50 22% 3.60    
3  CAROSWAY Oct08 Sep23 Sep17 Sep01 Aug12 (kettle)STEADMAN LEON 120 15.00    
SCR  THREE DAY BENDER Oct08 Aug13 Jul30 Jul16 Jun24 (kingston robe)CUMBERBATCH R 123 20.00    
5  AMEER Oct15 Oct08 Sep23 Sep17 Sep09 (b)GRIFFITH DELANE 118 10.00    
6  BOBS BUDDY Oct14 Sep17 Sep01 Jul30   (ward anderso)PRESCOD N'RICO 123 3.00 34% 2.00    
SCR  CMON SHARON Sep23 Sep03 Aug27 Aug13 Jul29 (willard )GUERRERO FRANCISCO 120 15.00    
8  DADDY'S PEPPER Oct14 Oct08 Sep23 Aug18 Jul29 (cone rodn)ZENTENO JR 120 4.00 17% 5.00    
9  THE ITALIAN MAN Oct08 Sep24 Aug27 Jul30 Jul22 (heggie rod)SIMPSON W 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.