Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Will Rogers Downs
Tuesday - March 14, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

WRD-1   WIN (4/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/5)-(4/5/2/3/1) 8 $2.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/5)-(4/5/2/3/1)-(4/5/2/3/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/5)-(1/6/2) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/5)-(1/6/2)-(6/2/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
WRD-2   WIN (1/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/2)-(1/6/2/5/3) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    TRI (1/6/2)-(1/6/2/5/3)-(1/6/2/5/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (1/6/2)-(6/2/4) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (1/6/2)-(6/2/4)-(6/1/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
WRD-3   WIN (6/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/4)-(6/2/4/1/3) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    TRI (6/2/4)-(6/2/4/1/3)-(6/2/4/1/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (6/2/4)-(6/1/5) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (6/2/4)-(6/1/5)-(5/1/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
WRD-4   WIN (6/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/5)-(6/1/5/3/4) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    TRI (6/1/5)-(6/1/5/3/4)-(6/1/5/3/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (6/1/5)-(5/1/4) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (6/1/5)-(5/1/4)-(5/1/2/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
WRD-5   WIN (5/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/4)-(5/1/4/3/2) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    TRI (5/1/4)-(5/1/4/3/2)-(5/1/4/3/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (5/1/4)-(5/1/2/4) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    PK3 (5/1/4)-(5/1/2/4)-(1/3) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
WRD-6   WIN (5/1/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/2/4)-(5/1/2/6/4) 16 $2.00 $32.00 
    TRI (5/1/2/4)-(5/1/2/6/4)-(5/1/2/6/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/1/2/4)-(1/3) 8 $2.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/1/2/4)-(1/3)-(5/1/7/3/2) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
WRD-7   WIN (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/3)-(1/3/2/4/6) 8 $2.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/3)-(1/3/2/4/6)-(1/3/2/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3)-(5/1/7/3/2) 10 $2.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/3)-(5/1/7/3/2)-(9/10/8/1) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
WRD-8   WIN (5/1/7/3/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/1/7/3/2)-(5/1/7/3/2) 20 $2.00 $40.00 
    TRI (5/1/7/3/2)-(5/1/7/3/2)-(5/1/7/3/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/1/7/3/2)-(9/10/8/1) 20 $2.00 $40.00 
    PK3 (5/1/7/3/2)-(9/10/8/1)-(7/6/4/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
WRD-9   WIN (9/10/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/10/8/1)-(9/10/8/1) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    TRI (9/10/8/1)-(9/10/8/1)-(9/10/8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/10/8/1)-(7/6/4/3) 16 $2.00 $32.00 
WRD-10   WIN (7/6/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/4/3)-(7/6/4/3/8) 16 $2.00 $32.00 
    TRI (7/6/4/3)-(7/6/4/3/8)-(7/6/4/3/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
WRD-1   03/14/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($13.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JEANO Dec03 Jul19 Jun28 Apr04 Mar22 (brooks ji)CUNNINGHAM TRAVIS 124 12.00    
WELDON G Jan20 Oct21 Aug27 May20   (gustafson aus)CABRERA DAVID 118 3.00    
HES BIG CHIEF Mar07 Oct26 Sep24 Sep01 Jul18 (espiritu luc)HEBERT LINDSEY 119 12.00    
BLUESKIESANDANGELS Dec17 Dec03 Nov05 Oct15 Sep24 (ashford ray)ROMAN KEVIN 124 1.00 50% 1.00    
IRA CHAMP Mar07 Jan16 Dec08 Nov15 Nov05 (buehrer mar)WETHEY JR 124 2.00 26% 2.90    
 
WRD-2   03/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($13K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MAGNET AND STEEL Jan02         (williams alan)COLLIER T 124 2.00 48% 1.10    
NORTHERN ORBIT Feb17 Jan20 Nov12 Oct13 Sep22 (pruitt jody)WETHEY JR 124 5.00 6% 16.90    
MESSAGE DISCIPLINE Feb10 Jan15 Nov21 Jun02   (martin ste)ERAMIA E 124 3.00    
CRAFTY SWORD Mar07 Oct12       (espiritu luc)HEBERT LINDSEY 119 20.00    
MASTER RED Mar07 Feb17 Jan16 Sep30 Sep15 (roberts bl)MORA GERARDO 124 2.50    
MR GYPSY         (gladd andy)KIMES C 124 8.00 18% 4.50    
WHAT ABOUT JIMMY Dec09 Nov11 Jun14 May16   (brooks jimm)HERRERA GUSTAVO 124 15.00    
 
WRD-3   03/14/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($12K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ST PATRICKS SWORD Dec08 Dec01 Nov05 Oct12 Sep22 (moreno carlos)CABRERA DAVID 124 2.00    
CRYPTO MINER         (ashford ray)ROMAN KEVIN 118 8.00 30% 2.30    
SERVICEMAN Oct08         (bravo franci)JORDAN R 118 4.00    
LUCKY MCCOY Feb26 Feb12 Dec08 Nov19 Nov05 (merrick d)MORA GERARDO 124 5.00 6% 17.10    
EASTER JIM Mar07 Dec16 Nov19     (oberlander je)PUSAC ALBERTO 118 20.00    
CAMANCHE RIVER Mar07 Dec16 Nov19     (gladd andy)KIMES C 118 1.80 40% 1.50    
MR. SMOKEY Mar07 Oct20 Oct07 Sep17 Sep03 (espiritu luc)HEBERT LINDSEY 119 20.00    
 
WRD-4   03/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($27.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COUNTRY BRAVE Mar07 Feb16 Jan21 Dec14 Nov25 (ashford ray)BIRZER E 124 3.00 17% 4.90    
PRINCE CAROLINA J Dec07 Oct28 Sep28 Sep08   (lee mark)JORDAN R 124 5.00    
GOSPEL BUZZ Jan20 Dec17 Dec07 Nov22 Oct25 (williams stev)PUSAC ALBERTO 124 4.00    
DENS DEVILLE Nov14 Oct20 Oct08 Sep17   (young e)MORA GERARDO 118 8.00    
DOMINANT OKIE Mar04 Jan20 Dec16 Dec07 Nov14 (young scott)WETHEY JR 118 3.50 9% 10.40    
EARS TO ME Mar07 Dec17 Dec07 Nov14 Oct26 (swan patrick )CABRERA DAVID 124 2.50 49% 1.00    
 
WRD-5   03/14/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($24K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OKIE FRONT Dec17 Nov22 Oct21 Sep14 Aug20 (young scott)WETHEY JR 121 3.00 14% 5.90    
COST A FORTUNE Feb12 Jan15 Nov21 Nov02 Oct12 (dixon tim)KIMES C 121 5.00    
LIGHTNING HART Feb17 Feb01 Dec17 Nov19 Oct28 (dixon tim)BAILEY CHEL-C 121 6.00    
TAYLOR'S VISION Dec17 Dec03 Nov03 Oct07 Jul24 (padilla j)TRIANA JR 121 3.50 12% 7.40    
BENDELENE Feb11 Jan22 Oct14 Sep17 Jul24 (padilla juan)MORA GERARDO 124 1.80 51% 1.00    
ADRIA Feb12 Jul22 Jun11 May29 May14 (chleborad ly)JORDAN R 121 8.00    
 
WRD-6   03/14/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($12K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROWDY GALE Dec08 Nov19 Nov05 Oct20 Sep24 (oberlander j)HEBERT LINDSEY 119 3.00 19% 4.30    
BIRD TALK Mar07         (padilla car)HERRERA GUSTAVO 124 4.00 8% 11.40    
CAT NAMED HERCULES Dec07 Nov05 Oct12     (espiritu lu)STILLION BROOKE 124 20.00    
KICK IT AGAIN BOB Jun14 May24       (corderman scot)SANCHEZ OBED 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
BIG NORTHERN RIVER Dec01 Nov05       (gladd andy)BIRZER E 124 1.60 42% 1.40    
BLAKE FROM TISH Feb26 Feb04       (buehrer m)TRIANA JR 118 2.50    
 
WRD-7   03/14/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($21K) 3 F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STOLEN KISSES Dec07 Nov04       (william)GONCALVES R 122 2.50 41% 1.50    
  (by CALEB'S POSSE out of NO KISSES FOR POPS by AIR COMMANDER)
DODGEBALL Nov19         (luneack ther)JORDAN R 122 4.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of TETHERBALL by PROUD CITIZEN)
RUN DOTTIE RUN Dec14 Nov25 Nov04 Oct19 Oct07 (padilla juan)ROMAN KEVIN 122 3.00 36% 1.80    
  (by FUSAICHI ZENON out of POUPON POLKA by YOUR EMINENCE)
THE VEGAS BOMB Dec14 Nov25 Nov04     (padilla juan)PUSAC ALBERTO 122 5.00    
  (by COMMISSIONER out of LONELY JET by MAZEL TRICK)
EURA NORTHERN SKY Dec15         (caster boyd)HERRERA GUSTAVO 122 12.00    
  (by DA STOOPS out of EURAROOKIE by EUROEARS)
SAENGER STAR Feb26 Feb17 Dec30 Nov03 Oct20 (moysey chelsey)HIRALDO JOHN 122 5.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
GOSPEL SISTER Dec14 Nov25 Nov04 Sep30   (williams steve)LINDSAY CHAD 122 8.00    
  (by BUSTIN STONES out of SISTER STEFF by TALE OF THE CAT)
 
WRD-8   03/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($12K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NAUGHTY NATALIE Feb26 Feb04 Dec14 Nov03 Oct07 (buehrer m)TRIANA JR 124 5.00 18% 4.60    
COLD AS YOU Feb22 Jan25 Dec29 Dec02 Nov12 (birzer bonnie)BIRZER E 124 15.00 5% 18.50    
SMOKING GUITAR Feb26 Feb04 Jan14 Dec10 Dec02 (buehrer mar)WETHEY JR 124 6.00 8% 10.90    
OUTWORKTHEOKIEGIRL Dec10 Dec02 Nov12 Oct07 Sep23 (gamez jose)CABRERA DAVID 124 8.00    
NOSTALGIA Feb26 Feb03 Jan07 Dec09 Nov20 (johnston lan)JORDAN R 124 2.00 31% 2.20    
PAYDIEM Mar06 Feb26 Feb11 Jan13 Sep15 (caldwell r)COLLIER T 124 6.00    
ITSONLYMONEYHONEY Dec17 Nov19 Nov04 Oct14 Sep14 (lee mark)PUSAC ALBERTO 124 3.00 11% 8.40    
SCR  SHE'S AN ANGEL Feb10 Dec15 Nov19 Oct27 Oct14 (gomez jua)CUNNINGHAM TRAVIS 124 20.00    
 
WRD-9   03/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MEAN CANNON Mar04 Feb19 Jan27 Jan14 Nov15 (williams stev)CABRERA DAVID 124 8.00 6% 16.20    
LASTCALLFORALCOHOL Mar06 Aug20 Jul19 Jun20 Jun07 (camillo ang)HERRERA GUSTAVO 121 20.00    
SCR  BAOZUN Feb11 Dec15 Oct12 Mar28   (gomez jua)CUNNINGHAM TRAVIS 121 30.00 6% 17.10    
PROUD MOMENTS Dec03 Nov22 Nov03 Oct19 Oct07 (corderman scot)SANCHEZ OBED 121 20.00    
CANEY'S GHOST Dec17 Dec08 Nov22 Oct21 Sep25 (moreno ca)TRIANA JR 121 15.00    
RIVER RULER Feb11 Jan08 Dec09 Nov21 Oct12 (padilla juan)MORA GERARDO 121 5.00    
MORO MERICA Nov22 Nov08 Oct26 Sep28 Sep15 (gladd andy)KIMES C 121 20.00    
GONNA GETCHA Jun27 Jun06 May18 Apr27 Apr13 (stephens jerr)PUSAC ALBERTO 121 10.00 10% 8.80    
HEROIC SONG Feb05 Jan21 Dec09 Nov14 Nov07 (young scott)WETHEY JR 124 1.40 44% 1.30    
10  HE'S MUNNIE Oct07 Sep21 Sep01 Jul11 May23 (hartman alex)JORDAN R 121 3.00 11% 8.10    
 
WRD-10   03/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FRIGERATOR Dec15 Nov25 Nov04 Oct21 Jun06 (hunt s)TRIANA JR 124 12.00    
HUNTER QUICK Jan14 Dec17 Nov11 Oct25 Sep26 (williams s)ERAMIA E 124 8.00    
CINCO STEVE Dec17 Nov25 Nov03 Oct06 Sep17 (offolter s)MORA GERARDO 124 12.00 7% 13.30    
I'M CRENSHAW Dec14 Nov25 Sep29 Sep10 Jun29 (bravo francis)PUSAC ALBERTO 124 3.00 8% 11.10    
KWONTRO Dec15 Nov04 May11 Apr19 Mar29 (swan patrick)JORDAN R 124 6.00    
GHOST HERO Feb18 Dec17 Nov11 Oct21 Sep30 (gelner jayd)WETHEY JR 118 2.50 12% 7.50    
CONNORS OUTLAW Feb05 Nov30 Oct21 Sep17   (craddoc)GONCALVES R 118 4.00 45% 1.20    
DANCING DEVIL Dec17 Dec07 Nov25 Oct28 Oct05 (hale vi)BAILEY CHEL-C 124 8.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.