Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Fort Erie
Tuesday - October 11, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
FE-1   10/11/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.435K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BLIND TRUST Sep12 Aug30 Jun28 Jun10 May07 (rabste)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 3.00 27% 2.70    
2  SILENCE BREAKERS Sep27 Aug30 Jul07 Jun19   (ceccato sharon)SALLES LEO 122 2.00 ★    
3  BE THE CHANGE Sep27 Sep06 Aug02 Jul19 Jun27 (siddo barringt)JOHNSON KIRK 122 2.50 31% 2.20    
4  CASSIE'S RAINBOW Oct03 Sep19 Sep12 Aug29 Aug14 (davies)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 114 4.50 ★    
5  HALF LIT Oct04 Sep06 Aug23 Aug02 Jul19 (keen howard)PINTO MELANIE 122 5.00 ★    
 
FE-2   10/11/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($4K) Purse ($14.7K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS SCHILLER         (loescher paula)CRAWFORD J 118 8.00 19% 4.30    
2  SUNDAY VISIT Sep29 Sep15 Aug25 Aug04 Jun30 (tiller robert)CHERNETZ SKYE 118 1.80 42% 1.40    
3  VERMONT HOLIDAY Oct04 Sep20 Sep12 Aug29 Aug22 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 116 3.00 ★    
4  ONLY BELIEVE Oct03 Sep20 Aug22 Jul26 Jul19 (co)BOULANGER CHANCE 120 6.00    
5  MISS LEGS Oct03         (loescher paul)GOBAY WILBERT 118 10.00 9% 10.40    
6  DAISY DANGLES Sep15 Jun25 Jun02 May19   (armata v)DAVID MICHAEL 118 2.50 ★    
 
FE-3   10/11/2022 5490ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.435K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KEEN SAMURAI Oct04 Sep12 Sep02 Aug14 Jul24 (lafond renic)NICHOLLS KEVEH 122 10.00 8% 11.20    
2  THE NEWFIE EXPRESS Sep22 Sep05 Jul08 Jun10 May26 (patyke)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 3.00    
3  CALMING INFLUENCE Oct03 Aug29 Aug14 Jul26 Jul11 (jolin ch)BUCHANAN Z 122 3.50 ★    
4  GORGEOUS KITTEN Oct02 Sep05 Aug25 Jun19 May13 (armata v)DAVID MICHAEL 122 4.50 25% 2.90    
5  A I INITIATIVE Oct03 Sep05 Aug23 Aug01 Jun28 (ceccat)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 4.00 ★    
6  REDOUTE'S LIGHT Sep22 Sep11 Sep01 Aug04 Jul15 (tiller robert)CHERNETZ SKYE 122 2.50 32% 2.10    
 
FE-4   10/11/2022 3300ft TURF RC4 GOOD Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.435K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  READY AT DAWN Sep20 Sep12 Aug30 Aug22 Aug08 (ezra d)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 6.00    
2  UNION COLONEL Sep27 Aug29 Jul22 Jul05 Jun19 (newlan)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 113 5.00 43% 1.40    
3  PEPPERONI Sep20 Jul29 Jul07     (sullivan elliot)MORENO OMAR 120 3.00 6% 15.10    
4  CRUMLIN EXPERIENCE Sep27 Sep05 Aug04 Jul12 Jul01 (si)BOULANGER CHANCE 118 4.00 ★    
5  ABSTEMIOUS Sep27 Sep20 Sep12 Aug30   (warner k)MAILHOT P 120 2.50 ★    
6  ARTIE MY BOY Sep12 Aug30 Aug22 Jul25 Jul05 (robillard julie)SALLES LEO 120 4.50 22% 3.60    
 
FE-5   10/11/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($6.25K) Purse ($18.522K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SECTION TEN Sep19 Sep05 Aug23 Aug09 Jul26 (lafond e)SALLES LEO 116 15.00    
2  SHAMBO Sep27 Sep15 Jul26 Jul11 Jun04 (newlan)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 111 4.50 25% 3.00    
3  MR. COMMISH Sep19 Sep06 Aug23 Jul29 Jul08 (wieczorek kendra)CRAWFORD J 118 2.50 ★    
4  WIN THE DRAW Sep19 Aug18 Jul17 Jun26   (drake )HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 118 4.00 ★    
5  CORE Oct04 Sep05 Aug23 Aug01 Jul19 (powell a)DACOSTA W 120 12.00 7% 13.20    
6  RUSHING RIVER Sep27 Aug22 Jul26     (agostino geor)MAILHOT P 118 20.00    
7  MILWAUKEE BAY Sep13 Aug18 Jul21 Jul01 Jun05 (wills daniel)NICHOLLS KEVEH 115 1.60 43% 1.30    
 
FE-6   10/11/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.435K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUPER BREW Sep19 Aug29 Jun16 May22   (fournier mark)MORENO OMAR 118 2.00 31% 2.20    
2  RAYO COLORADO Sep19 Sep05 Aug30 Aug02 Jul04 (agostino geor)MAILHOT P 118 4.00 ★    
SCR  UNDEFILED Sep05 Aug14 Jul26 Jun23 Mar26 (tharre)ALDERSON IAN 118 6.00 11% 8.00    
4  BOCELLI (IRE) Oct03 Sep19 Sep05 Aug22 Aug14 (keen howard)PINTO MELANIE 120 3.00 30% 2.30    
5  STRONG ATTITUDE Aug30 Aug08 Jul26 Jul12 Jun19 (sm)BOULANGER CHANCE 118 15.00 ★    
6  CRYPTIC CREED Oct01 Sep18 Jul29 Jun23 Jun10 (agostino)BUCHANAN Z 118 5.00    
7  SALT MINE TEDDY Oct03 Sep19 Sep05 Aug14 Aug01 (loescher paula)CRAWFORD J 118 12.00    
 
FE-7   10/11/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($19.404K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RASPBERRY WILD Sep27 Jun27       (lister steven)DEFREITAS C 118 15.00 7% 13.40    
2  LUNATICA Sep27 Sep13 Aug22     (wieczorek ken)HERNANDEZ K 118 12.00 15% 5.80    
3  SHE AINT NO JOKE Sep27 Sep12 Sep06 Aug22 Aug01 (ceccat)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 118 2.50 19% 4.20    
4  SMARTY ILLUSION Sep24 Sep04 Jul30 Jul07 Jun19 (pion sylvain)CRAWFORD J 120 1.80 22% 3.50    
5  SWEET SHADES Sep04 Aug28       (gattellaro tony)MORENO OMAR 118 4.50    
SCR  FLEEKA Sep27 Sep12 Aug22 Aug09 Aug01 (albu ken)PINTO MELANIE 118 8.00    
7  PRINCESS LAVENDER Oct03 Sep20 Aug22 Aug11 Jul19 (rabstein claudia)SALLES LEO 118 5.00 ★    
 
FE-8   10/11/2022 4620ft TURF RC0 GOOD Allowance Purse ($24.108K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BABY LUNA Sep27 Aug30 Aug02 Jul19   (williams noel )JOHNSON KIRK 120 12.00    
2  PRINCESS MORO Sep19 Aug30 Aug09 Jul26 Jun27 (buttigieg kev)PINTO MELANIE 120 6.00 ★    
3  PACENZA Sep27 Sep06 Aug23 Jul30 Jun26 (ceccato sharo)HERNANDEZ K 120 4.00 ★    
4  MONASTERY LANE Sep15 Aug25 Aug11     (dixon patrick)CRAWFORD J 120 2.00 45% 1.20    
5  WHATSWRONGWITHYOU Sep19         (thompson valeri)MORENO OMAR 120 12.00 ★    
6  NEW YORK COMMANDER Sep29 Sep13 Sep01 Aug01 Jul17 (mu)BOULANGER CHANCE 120 20.00    
7  MUSICAL RIDE Sep15 Aug13 Jul17 Jul03 May28 (sulliv)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 1.80 28% 2.60    
 
FE-9   10/11/2022 3300ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($21.168K) 2 ALL PT- 4:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TRAJEC HOLIDAY Sep20 Sep06       (mileni nic)KING MARIE 115 3.00    
2  BEA MAJESTIC G G         (robillard jul)HERNANDEZ K 115 8.00 ★    
3  SUPER FOLLOW Sep20 Sep06       (neubauer mich)PINTO MELANIE 115 2.50 61% 0.60    
SCR  CATRIN Sep20 Sep06 Aug21     (humber)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 118 6.00    
5  OLA BRO Sep20         (ceccato sharon)CRAWFORD J 118 10.00    
6  DEFOGGER         (albu ken)JOHNSON KIRK 118 8.00 ★    
7  EL BANDOLERO         (humber joseph)GOBAY WILBERT 118 15.00 ★    
8  QUIET MADDELENA         (raghunath ravend)SALLES LEO 115 4.00 10% 9.30    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.