Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Monday - September 05, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-2   09/05/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG LARRY Aug22 Apr18 Mar23 Feb10 Jan26 (martinez a)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50 ★    
2  CAPTAIN COMEBACK Jun20 May18 Apr25 Apr05   (williams steve)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 20.00 ★    
3  RANCHER Aug22 Aug08 Jul04 Apr28 Apr20 (esquibel mark)WALES T 124 2.00 25% 2.90    
4  GUN WAR Aug15 Jul25 Jul13 Jun19 May29 (dieter dalton)FACKLER CHRIS 124 4.50 19% 4.10    
SCR  PRAIRIE SQUALL Aug22 Aug15 Jul31 Jul17 May06 (hibdon n)HERRERA HUGO 124 3.50 26% 2.90    
 
ARP-3   09/05/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($11K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOX BIZ Aug30 Jul24 Jun27 Jun03 May01 (dieter dalton)HAAR NATHAN 120 3.50 ★    
2  EL JEFE COBB Aug20 Aug06 Jun19     (mitchell stets)HERRERA HUGO 120 2.50 ★    
3  CHICKEN N BISCUIT Aug09 Jun25 May02 Apr08 Mar07 (esquibel mark)WALES T 120 4.50 45% 1.20    
4  FROG WALKER Aug09 Mar28 Mar07     (loftin linda)MARTIN A 120 10.00 14% 6.30    
5  SUPER CREATIVE Aug09 Jul19       (davis rodney)AGUILAR DANIEL 120 15.00    
6  I WALK ALONE         (coughlin chr)BETHKE A 124 20.00 9% 10.40    
 
ARP-4   09/05/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($10.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADDIE BOY Aug07 Jul11 May07 Apr23 Apr08 (anderson david)HERRERA HUGO 124 10.00 27% 2.70    
2  BAUDETTE BLIZZARD Jul18 Jul03 Apr29 Apr02 Mar20 (rushton stacy)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50 ★    
SCR  A P'S BLUEGRASS Aug28 Aug08 Apr01 Mar12 Feb26 (mitchell ste)MARTIN A 124 3.50 33% 2.00    
4  WATER PATROL Aug21 Aug07 Jul26 Jul12 Jun17 (haar j)WALES T 124 2.50 ★    
5  CLIFTON PARK Aug21 Jun19 May23 May13 May03 (williams ste)BETHKE A 124 8.00    
6  IOWA NATIVE Aug23 Jul25 Jul15 Jul01 Jun13 (dieter dalton)FACKLER CHRIS 124 15.00 7% 12.70    
 
ARP-5   09/05/2022 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($10.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEELEY Jul05 Jun17 Jun03 May14 Apr16 (mitchell stets)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 4.50 24% 3.30    
2  YOUNG PHILLIP Aug01 Jul03 Jun10 May07 Apr23 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50 26% 2.80    
3  JOMO Jun05 May29 May06 Apr22 Apr03 (hibdon n)HERRERA HUGO 124 2.50 ★    
4  FELON (IRE) Aug22 Aug09 Jul26 Jul12 Jun17 (hancock david)FACKLER CHRIS 124 8.00 ★    
5  BREAKIN DAYLIGHT Aug07 Jul17 Jun18 May29 May14 (coughlin chr)BETHKE A 124 15.00 15% 5.50    
 
ARP-6   09/05/2022 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROCKETRINGO Aug08 Jul18 Jul05 Jun10 May21 (ness john)HERRERA HUGO 124 15.00 7% 12.40    
2  LOVESAFLYIN May20 Apr23 Apr09 Mar25 Mar06 (fackler howar)FACKLER CHRIS 121 20.00 ★    
3  GRAYDAR'S DREAM Aug02 Jul19 Jun27 May23 Apr19 (rushton temple)WALES T 124 2.50    
4  FAYETTE WARRIOR Aug18 Aug04 Jul14 Jul03 Jun16 (bethke troy )BETHKE A 124 12.00 ★    
5  WOKE UP WILD Jun18 May29 May21 May07 Apr24 (dieter dalto)MARTIN A 124 3.50 52% 0.90    
6  THREE BALL Aug28 Jul25 Jul11 Jun18 May29 (roberts m)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50 14% 6.20    
 
ARP-7   09/05/2022 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($9.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PICKELJUICE Aug09 Jul12 Jun18 May28 May21 (burns dale)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 15.00    
2  MACHO MADNESS Jun10 May29 May13 Apr29 Apr23 (fackler howar)FACKLER CHRIS 124 12.00 6% 15.10    
3  BLUE TWISTED STEEL Aug23 Aug01 Jul18 Jul05 Jun11 (ibanez alber)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 2.50 45% 1.20    
4  ALL SHACKED UP Aug22 Aug09 Jul12 Jun10 May20 (haar j)WALES T 124 10.00 7% 14.30    
5  HEADEDTOTHESTARS Mar21         (williams steve)HERRERA HUGO 124 8.00 ★    
6  ZCAT'S CHATAIN Aug23 Aug02 Jun27 Jun14 Jun06 (coughlin chris)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.00 13% 6.60    
7  LIGHT BOUND BID Aug23 Aug09 Jul26 Jun17 Jun10 (muckey john)BETHKE A 124 3.50    
8  FERRARI ROAD Jul11 Jun10 May30 May14 Apr09 (muckey john)MARTIN A 124 4.50    
 
ARP-8   09/05/2022 5490ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($18.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CONVENTION (IRE) Aug15 Apr30 Apr22 Apr02 Mar05 (martinez a)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.50 15% 5.80    
2  HOLD TIGHT Aug15 Jul19 Jun11 Apr30 Apr09 (mitchell stets)HERRERA HUGO 124 4.50 ★    
SCR  WILDCAT NATION Aug21 Aug08 Jul05 May06 Apr16 (mitchell stets)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 12.00 13% 6.60    
4  RUN FOR MATTY Aug15 Aug02 Jul12 Jun17 Jun11 (ibanez alber)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 20.00 ★    
5  MAIUS Aug15 Jul19 Jul04     (martinez a)WALES T 121 3.50 48% 1.10    
 
ARP-9   09/05/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($8.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DIXIE TRIXIE May28 May14 May01 Mar25 Mar11 (dieter dalto)MORALES ADRIAN 124 20.00    
2  CRIMSON T. Aug15 Jul26 Jun12 May28 May06 (young a)MARTIN A 120 15.00    
3  KELLEY'S MANDATE Aug23 Aug08 Jul26 Jul12 Apr22 (mitchell stets)HERRERA HUGO 120 2.50 16% 5.40    
4  TRICKY LEX Aug01 Jul12       (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 121 8.00    
5  TAKARA QUEEN Aug15         (wales dale)WALES T 124 10.00    
6  RIVER CHARMER Aug23 Aug02 Jul12 Jun06 May10 (ness john)FACKLER CHRIS 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  ANGIE'S REVRAC Aug15 Jul26 Jul01 Jun12 May28 (muckey john)BETHKE A 120 8.00 11% 7.90    
8  KINSLEYS SWEET PEA Aug02 Jul26 Jul03     (hibdon mark )AGUILAR DANIEL 120 4.50 ★    
9  EYES OF AGE Aug15         (young don )GONZALEZ V 124 20.00    
10  SEGOVIANA Aug23 Aug08 Jul18 Jul03 Apr08 (hibdon mark)VORRATH VALENTE 124 12.00    
11  SMART ACT Aug15         (mitchell stets)MCNEIL BRYAN 120 3.50 48% 1.10    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.