Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - July 16, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/16/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($19K) 2 F PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BLESSED ANGEL         (chapman james)BAILEY CHEL-C 114 10.00 ★    
2  MAGIC BEAUTY Jun09 May31 May12     (cha)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 1.40 ★    
3  MACI'S GEMSTONE         (short thomas)WISEMAN ISAIAH 119 12.00 7% 13.00    
4  FLAG TO FLAG         (brisset ro)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 17% 4.90    
5  HAPPY CLOUDS Jun23         (ennis john)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 3.00 27% 2.70    
6  LADY ENVOY         (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 5.00    
 
ELP-2   07/16/2022 3630ft TURF RC0 GOOD Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KENNESAW Jun24 Jun03 May14     (rodriguez eduardo)DIAZ RENE 117 6.00    
1A  TWIRLING ROSES Jun18 Jun03 May15 May08 Apr24 (rodriguez )MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00 14% 6.30    
2  COMISKEY PARK Jun18 Jun03 May14 Apr23   (hernandez armando)EMIGH A 122 2.50 23% 3.30    
3  B D VALESKI Jun05 May04 Mar10 Feb11 Jan17 (foley greg)GRAHAM J 118 2.00 ★    
4  CIRCLE BACK JACK May23 Apr10 Mar12     (hamilton sarah)MOJICA JR 118 4.50 13% 6.60    
5  RESPECT THE CODE Jun25 May29       (miller pe)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00    
6  STAYED IN FOR HALF Jun11 May07 Apr08 Feb26 Jan23 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00 22% 3.50    
 
ELP-3   07/16/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TITLE SHOT         (ortiz alexan)DIAZ RENE 119 1.60 33% 2.00    
2  WORDS OF WISDOM May15 Apr08 Feb26 Jan22   (diodoro roberti)COHEN DAVID 118 4.00 29% 2.40    
3  MOUNTAIN GHOST Jun24 Apr24 Feb23     (wiggins lon)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00 ★    
SCR  SECRET EDGE         (hancock jack )BAILEY CHEL-C 113 20.00    
5  RIKIO Jul01 Apr16       (beckman d )MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00    
6  INDIAN SPRINGS         (campbell do)PETERSON FERRIN 124 30.00    
7  OFFICER NICK Jun24 Jun05 May03 Feb10   (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 2.50 11% 8.00    
8  PRIVATE CONNIE Jun19 Jan02       (hancock j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00 ★    
 
ELP-4   07/16/2022 3630ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COACHES MEETING         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 3.50 25% 2.90    
2  SPANISH DOUBLOON         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 3.00 29% 2.40    
3  SAILOR'S CHANCE Jun23         (ennis john)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 12.00    
4  LUCKY'S SECRET         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 10.00    
SCR  GO LITTLE ROCKSTAR Jul15         (faircloth ave)CANUTO THIAGO 112 30.00 5% 19.00    
6  SIVAKO Jun23         (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 8.00    
7  LOOKA LOOKA         (pierce lac)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
8  ST. NEOTS         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 4.50 6% 15.20    
9  LORD GRANTHAM         (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
10  FADETHENOISE Jun09         (maker michael)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00    
 
ELP-5   07/16/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DREAMFACTOR         (stinson willi)BAILEY CHEL-C 119 12.00 ★    
2  MYSTIC MINISTER         (fletcher kev)WISEMAN ISAIAH 119 20.00    
3  BLUFF CITY Jun23         (catalano w)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 33% 2.00    
4  BOURBON SPIRIT         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 31% 2.20    
5  MIRANDA RIGHTS         (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00    
6  ACCIDENT Jul08 Jun26       (short thomas)EMIGH A 119 4.00 15% 5.70    
7  MEMPHIS PHAROAH         (brennan terry)BEJARANO R 119 4.50 ★    
 
ELP-6   07/16/2022 5610ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($61K) 3 F PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CARIBBEAN NIGHT May18 Apr29       (drury thom)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  MAMA RINA Jul01         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.00    
3  QUEROBIN DOURADA Jun11 Apr22 Mar26 Feb16   (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 6.00    
4  WICKED WONDER Mar16 Feb06 Jan14     (peitz dan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 15.00    
5  HARD LIKE HOLLY Jun25 Jun17 Jun04 May28 May14 (hughes w)LEZCANO ABEL 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  AMANI'S IMAGE Jun03 Apr28 Apr02 Mar10   (gutierrez fau)GARCIA MARTIN 120 12.00    
7  FANCY MARTINI May14 Mar26 Feb05 Jan08   (sharp joe)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 4.50 20% 4.10    
8  LADY ARSINOE Jun23 May09 Apr08 Mar10 Feb19 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 6.00 52% 0.90    
9  BALI DREAMIN May28 Apr15 Mar27     (puh)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 120 8.00    
10  LAVISH HABITS Apr28 Apr08 Feb27 Jan30   (hiles a)GRAHAM J 120 5.00 ★    
SCR  LAVENDAR LANE Jun26 Jan07       (lyster ste)CORRALES GERARDO 120 10.00    
 
ELP-7   07/16/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INEXORABLE Jun25         (margolis )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00 ★    
2  LEGIONNAIRE Jun05         (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 118 1.80 40% 1.50    
3  WHAT'S UP DOC Jun17         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 2.00 22% 3.50    
4  BOLD MEDICATION Jun18         (calhoun will)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00    
5  YORK TAVERN Jun08         (devaux cherie)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00    
6  UNCLE BERLEY Jun18 May14 Apr07 Mar26 Feb12 (asmussen m)DIAZ RENE 113 15.00 ★    
7  PORT ROYAL Jun22 Jun09 Mar18 Feb19   (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
8  BLOW TORCH Jul01 May22 May07     (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 20.00 14% 5.90    
SCR  KINGMAKER Jun05 Apr24 Mar19 Feb12   (moquett e)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
10  CALL ME FAST Jun25         (puh)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 118 12.00    
 
ELP-8   07/16/2022 5940ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($63K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CELERITY Jun17 May03 Apr22 Apr02 Jan16 (cundiff waylon)DIAZ RENE 117 20.00    
1A  ARTEMUS EAGLE May20         (cundiff waylon)DIAZ RENE 117 20.00    
2  INTRADAY (BRZ) May20 Mar10 Feb10     (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 12.00    
3  TEMPER TANTRUM Jun25 Jun03       (hernandez )CORRALES GERARDO 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
4  WHISKEY DOUBLE Jun23 May21 Mar05 Feb19 Jan02 (maker michael)GARCIA MARTIN 122 6.00    
5  NEXT May20 Apr16 Mar10     (cowans wil)HERNANDEZ J 124 8.00 9% 9.80    
6  CURRENT Jun25 May03 Apr17 Mar12 Feb04 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 4.00 31% 2.20    
7  ATTORNEY TIM Jun03 Mar12 Feb10 Jan13   (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00 ★    
8  BAMA BREEZE May21 Apr23 Jan29     (arnold r)LANERIE J 122 1.80 33% 2.00    
 
ELP-9   07/16/2022 3630ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STELLA TERESA Jun22 Apr20 Feb26     (wojczynski ju)LEBRON VICTOR 119 3.50 44% 1.30    
2  MAHOMEBRED Jul01 Jun11       (williamson brian)EMIGH A 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  RATHER BE LUCKY May06 Feb19 Jan22     (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 23% 3.40    
4  CAUSE CELEBRE         (margolis )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
5  TWENTYTWENTY HOAX Jul01 Jun11 May26 May14   (king barry)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 5.00    
6  BALL GOWN Jun22         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 6% 15.40    
7  ALEATORY         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
8  BELPERRON         (manley steve)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
9  MISS NUCKOLS Jun30         (godsey mars)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
10  GET BY Jun22 May15 Mar13     (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 6.00 ★    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.