Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - July 10, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/10/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAJUN BLAST Jun30         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 6.00    
2  ANGLOPHILE Jun19         (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 3.50    
SCR  HEZMORETHANREADY Jun27 May19       (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 119 2.50 39% 1.60    
SCR  CABALLO FELIZ         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  DRAMA CRITIC         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 6.00 ★    
6  STATE CHAMP         (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  HONED         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 18% 4.60    
 
ELP-2   07/10/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($19K) 2 ALL PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JIM'S RIVER RUNNER         (martin da)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 119 12.00 ★    
1A  MAMAS HOME COOKING Jun11         (martin dawn)DIEGO JAVIER 119 12.00 6% 15.10    
2  CAMBIASO         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 8.00 ★    
3  TWIST OF FAITH Jun22 Apr13       (ennis john)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 2.00 21% 3.70    
4  EL RAYO (ARG) Jun11         (manley steve)EMIGH A 119 4.00    
5  SPECIAL OPERATOR         (desormeaux j )CANNON DECLAN 119 2.50 30% 2.40    
SCR  WEST JET         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 3.50 10% 9.50    
 
ELP-3   07/10/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  URBAN RECOVERY May05 Mar26       (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
SCR  BLUEGRASS ROYALE May20         (devaux cherie)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 6.00    
2  SILVER BLUR Jun17 May22       (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 4.00 11% 8.10    
3  FLYING FRED Apr29 Mar11 Feb18 Jan28 Jan07 (maker michael)GARCIA MARTIN 124 4.50    
4  CALRISSIAN May30 Apr28 Mar25     (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 124 10.00 6% 15.20    
5  BUEHLER'S DAY OFF Jun20         (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 118 6.00 15% 5.80    
SCR  DOUBLE SPUN Jun12 Apr29       (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00    
7  LEVY May11 Apr09 Mar05 Jan15   (moquett e)BEJARANO R 118 8.00 ★    
SCR  KANSAS COMET May21 Apr16       (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 2.00 47% 1.10    
 
ELP-4   07/10/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JENNINGS         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 2.50 18% 4.70    
2  GULFSTREAM WAY Jun19 May29 Feb03     (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 1.20 43% 1.30    
3  LAMUTANAATTY Mar19         (moquett e)DIAZ RENE 117 15.00 ★    
4  STELLAR TAP Jun22 Jun04 Apr23 Apr01 Feb26 (hawley wesley)LANERIE J 120 4.50 13% 6.70    
5  BELFAST BOY Jun08 May19 Apr07 Mar05 Feb20 (hiles rick)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00    
6  TRASHTALKINYANKEE         (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 122 6.00 ★    
 
ELP-5   07/10/2022 3630ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($70K) 3 ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CIRCLE BACK JACK May23 Apr10 Mar12     (hamilton sarah)MOJICA JR 118 3.00 26% 2.80    
2  CALL ME MIDNIGHT Jun03 Apr16 Mar26 Jan22   (desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00    
3  ALL IN SYNC May23 May01 Apr08 Feb11 Jan01 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50 29% 2.50    
SCR  B D VALESKI Jun05 May04 Mar10 Feb11 Jan17 (foley greg)GRAHAM J 118 1.60 ★    
5  EMPEROROFTHEDARK May17 Apr19 Mar18 Feb18   (doua)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 120 10.00 ★    
6  SHELTOWEE'S BALI Jul06 Jun22 Jun08 May29 May17 (larue steve)EMIGH A 118 12.00 13% 6.90    
 
ELP-6   07/10/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MORE THAN VOWS Jun11         (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 5.00 39% 1.50    
2  TAKE CARE         (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00    
3  POWER TO PLAY         (calhoun william )BEJARANO R 119 6.00 ★    
4  MADELYN'S MAGIC Jun04 May15 Apr15 Mar05 Feb11 (jones larry)BAILEY CHEL-C 112 20.00    
5  YOUR SO SILLEA         (sims a)GILLIGAN JACK 119 3.50 29% 2.50    
6  ROLLESTON         (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
7  SOLAR REIGN         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00    
8  CANDY ISLAND         (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00    
9  SMUGNESS Jun04 Apr28       (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 7% 14.30    
10  SOMEBODY LOVES ME May05 Apr14 Mar13     (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
SCR  MI CRESCENDO Jun23 May30 May12 Apr20   (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
12  TAYLOR B         (stinson w)PEDROZA MARCELINO 119 20.00    
13  EMOJI PRINCESS         (schlenk jad)STILLION BROOKE 119 30.00    
 
ELP-7   07/10/2022 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DEMODOG         (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.00 ★    
SCR  CAROLINE'S STORY Jun17 Feb26       (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 124 8.00 10% 8.60    
3  XTREMA Jun09 May03       (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 122 12.00    
SCR  UNDISTURBED May28 Apr24 Mar20 Jan21   (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 2.00 44% 1.30    
5  SISTER ANNIE Jun10 May11 Mar09     (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 4.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  FAIR GAME May19 Apr24 Mar18     (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 122 10.00    
SCR  SOUTHERN SKY Feb24 Jan16       (royal madelyn)LEZCANO ABEL 118 20.00    
SCR  VEZPA (BRZ) May19 Apr24       (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 12.00 ★    
9  TAKNTOTHECLEANERS         (west w)MORALES EDGAR 122 15.00    
 
ELP-8   07/10/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($19K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOUDINI'S AWESOME         (west w)BEJARANO R 124 6.00 12% 7.20    
2  SCOTCH NO ROCKS Jun11         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00    
SCR  AQUACAT Jun24 Apr28       (beckman wh)GEROUX FLORENT 118 30.00    
4  NO LIMITATION May21         (morey willia)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 8.00    
SCR  BRIGHT SPARK Jul03 Jun24 Jun11 May15 Apr27 (flint ber)PEDROZA MARCELINO 118 30.00    
SCR  DAISY'S DOC         (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 124 5.00 ★    
7  TREATY Jun08 Apr07 Mar05 Jan16   (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00    
8  JOLLY TOMMY         (york keith)LANERIE J 118 4.00 31% 2.20    
9  MUCHO MOJO Jun26 Jun03 Apr02 Mar12 Feb12 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 23% 3.30    
SCR  COMMAND CENTRAL Jun24 Mar12 Feb23 Jan16   (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 30.00 10% 8.70    
SCR  SAILOR'S RETURN Jun18 May30 May05 Mar18 Feb20 (habeeb donald )SAEZ GABRIEL 124 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.