Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Monday - May 30, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/30/2022 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FOUR DAWN May13 Apr10 Mar04 Feb06   (garcia genar)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 3.50 13% 6.60    
2  MEGAN'S CLARA Apr08 Mar25 Feb27 Feb11   (ortiz ale)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 5.00 41% 1.40    
3  RUN FEARLESS Apr29 Mar25 Feb11 Jan28 Jan02 (fires h)COURT K 124 12.00 5% 17.50    
4  BOURBINA Apr30         (cook b)BEJARANO R 124 4.00    
5  BIZZY ECHO Feb03         (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00 7% 12.40    
6  SPARKLE OF HOPE May15 Feb24       (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.50 ★    
7  ZMUDA May13 Apr01 Mar12 Feb18 Jan23 (hiles rick)GRAHAM J 118 5.00    
 
CD-2   05/30/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OAXACA Apr23 Mar23 Feb25 Jan09   (gut)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 118 5.00    
2  GARDENLY         (drury thomas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 5.00 19% 4.30    
3  PONTIFFANY May12 Apr15 Mar13 Jan17 Jan03 (barrett r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00 ★    
4  I CROSS MY HEART May06 Mar13 Jan09     (lynch bria)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 2.50 ★    
5  MAXINE'S CANDY May05 Apr15       (vance r)DIAZ RENE 111 15.00    
SCR  OPEN SAYS ME         (williamson bri)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 3.50 20% 4.00    
7  NOGRATZ         (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 35% 1.80    
 
CD-3   05/30/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EL FRANCO May12 Apr21 Mar04 Feb12   (norris mike)MORALES EDGAR 124 12.00 6% 16.30    
2  STUD PUPPY May22 Apr08 Mar20 Feb27 Feb11 (zit)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 124 10.00    
3  FIGHTVILLE May14 Apr20 Mar23 Feb21 Jan21 (desormeaux keit)DIAZ RENE 111 3.00 11% 7.80    
4  CHASE TRACKER May14 May07 Apr01 Mar18 Feb27 (garcia genar)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 8.00    
5  MO HEAT Apr10 Mar25 Mar04 Feb18 Jan14 (murphy shan)MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 6.00 10% 9.10    
6  KIDYOUNOT May14 Apr08 Mar13     (barnett c)COURT K 124 10.00    
7  TIGHTWAD May14 Mar25 Mar02     (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 118 5.00 45% 1.20    
8  BARSTOW May17 Apr20       (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.00 ★    
9  PLEMMONSTON May22 Feb28 Feb17 Feb04 Jan13 (leonard i)BEJARANO R 124 6.00    
 
CD-4   05/30/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOUCH CODE May15 Mar19 Feb12 Jan08   (vance dav)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00 11% 7.80    
2  CHILENO Apr16 Mar13 Feb12     (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 26% 2.90    
3  GATE RUNNER May03 Apr03       (pletcher t)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 20% 4.10    
4  MAGNIFICUS Apr30 Mar19 Feb26     (moquett ronal)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00 ★    
5  SUPERCOOL Mar11 Jan23       (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 125 6.00    
6  CONSPIRACY FACT May07         (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
7  G FLAT Apr24         (ortiz ale)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00    
8  JEEPER May03 Apr09       (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 2.50 22% 3.60    
 
CD-5   05/30/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JELLY NOUGAT Apr22 Mar11       (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 ★    
2  MOUNT ATHOS May12 Apr15       (brisset rodo)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 3.50    
3  FED MONEY May12 Mar20 Feb25 Feb04 Jan13 (baker james)GARCIA MARTIN 124 20.00    
4  SOUTHERN PASSAGE May12 Apr16       (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 4.50 8% 11.30    
5  NEPOTISM May12 Apr13 Mar04 Feb25 Jan09 (scherer mariann)LANERIE J 124 3.00 38% 1.60    
6  MOON DOG Apr30 Mar20 Feb26     (glyshaw tim)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
7  GROUP HUG Apr10 Mar20 Feb26 Feb04   (maker mi)SANTANA JR 124 5.00 ★    
8  LEADING WEST Apr30 Mar31 Mar06 Feb20 Jan16 (ortiz alex)COHEN DAVID 124 4.00 25% 3.00    
 
CD-6   05/30/2022 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  READY TO POUNCE Mar10 Jan27 Jan02     (pessin neil )BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ELUSIVE MISCHIEF Feb02 Jan05       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 12.00 ★    
2  STRIKE ME DOWN Mar19 Feb19 Jan22     (lovell michelle)BEJARANO R 121 3.50 13% 6.60    
3  THANKS MR. EIDSON May03         (lynch br)SANTANA JR 121 5.00    
4  ON YOUR MARK May03 Mar18 Feb20 Jan23   (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.50    
5  DEVIL'S TOWER Apr30 Mar20 Feb25 Feb13 Jan16 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 12.00    
SCR  MUTAKATIF (IRE) Apr10 Mar19       (brown h)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 20.00    
7  COWAN May06 Feb19 Jan22     (asmussen s)CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00    
8  BAD BEAT BRIAN Feb19 Jan30       (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 47% 1.10    
9  GALLANT GUY Apr09 Mar04 Jan16     (gon)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 121 15.00    
10  MAJOR WAGER         (meah m)BOWEN ROCCO 121 20.00    
11  ANACONDA Apr09 Mar11 Jan30     (walsh bre)LEPAROUX R 121 3.50 7% 13.20    
SCR  SPRINKLEHEAD May13 May05 Apr14 Feb25 Feb16 (salas felipe)DIAZ RENE 114 30.00    
SCR  UPSTRIKER Apr24 Mar12 Feb20 Jan02   (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 6% 15.60    
 
CD-7   05/30/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CRITICAL THREAT Apr09 Mar12 Jan12     (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 123 8.00    
2  ANGKOR         (bauer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 6.00    
3  BOURBON THUNDER         (wilkes r)GRAHAM J 123 5.00 ★    
4  MEISTER Apr16 Feb12       (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 123 5.00    
5  CRYO Apr02         (morey willia)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 10.00 25% 3.10    
6  GREENER PASTURES Apr02         (mccarthy michael)BEJARANO R 123 4.50 44% 1.30    
7  UBER KIRK Apr28 Apr10 Jan07     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 123 15.00 9% 9.50    
8  RIGHT TONE         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 8.00 ★    
9  SCHMOOZIN May04 Mar18 Jan23     (pessin l)LANERIE J 123 15.00    
10  A C EXPRESSWAY May07 Apr02 Feb18 Jan16   (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 3.50    
 
CD-8   05/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Grade III Stake/Handicap Purse ($200K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JOYFUL CADENCE Apr30 Mar20 Feb12     (ortiz al)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00 ★    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of ARABIAN SONG by FORESTRY)
2  NOVEL SQUALL Apr28 Apr02 Feb19 Jan09   (ortiz john)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50 ★    
  (by VIOLENCE out of GOODNESS GRAY by PULPIT)
3  SCONSIN         (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.20 43% 1.30    
  (by INCLUDE out of SCONNIE by TIZNOW)
4  LI'L TOOTSIE Apr02 Mar11 Jan22     (amoss m)GRAHAM J 118 5.00 17% 5.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of INFORMATIVE STYLE by DAYJUR)
5  TIPSY GAL         (stewart )SANTANA JR 118 15.00    
  (by MAJESTICPERFECTION out of TIPSY AT MIDNIGHT by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
SCR  EUPHORIC Mar12 Feb14 Jan29     (flint bern)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00 11% 8.30    
  (by FROSTED (GB) out of CONQUEST SOPRANO by SUPER SAVER)
 
CD-9   05/30/2022 7260ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CONSULATE May03 Apr10 Feb26 Jan29 Jan14 (sisterson )MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 4.00 17% 5.00    
2  SAILOR'S RETURN May05 Mar18 Feb20 Jan21 Jan03 (habeeb donald )SAEZ GABRIEL 125 12.00 16% 5.30    
3  SURROGATE         (bianco)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 12.00    
4  STAMKOS Apr24         (mcgaughey )HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00    
5  MADISON LUVS DUKE May03 Mar26       (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
6  TRUMPETS BLARE Apr09         (wilkes ian)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00    
7  VINTAGE YEAR May05 Apr10 Feb25     (arnold ge)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 3.00 21% 3.70    
8  ALWAYS ABOVE Apr22 Mar12 Feb12     (nihei michelle)ACHARD ALEX 118 8.00    
9  CALRISSIAN Apr28 Mar25       (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 125 3.50    
SCR  AQUACAT Apr28         (beckman whitw)COHEN DAVID 118 20.00    
11  STICKY ISSUE May05 Apr28       (ennis john)GRAHAM J 125 3.00 17% 5.00    
SCR  BIGGIE May07         (medina r)SANTANA JR 125 10.00 5% 18.80    
SCR  LITTLE RED RIFLE May13         (semkin sam)MOJICA JR 118 30.00    
SCR  LOLAS BEAU May13 Apr29 Apr02 Feb16 Jan22 (guerrero sal)DIAZ RENE 111 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.