Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Willowdale Steeplechase
Saturday - May 13, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
WIL-1   05/13/2023 11880ft TURF RC11 FIRM Liam Magee Purse ($10K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BALTIMORE KID (IRE) Oct15 Aug31 Aug10     (brion keri)BOUCHER MELL 149 4.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  FAST VISION (FR) Nov05 Oct02 Sep01 May14   (young leslie )GALLIGAN MARK 158 2.00    
  (by VISION D'ETAT out of MILU HAS by SAINT DES SAINTS (FR))
3  THREE O ONE Mar25 Nov05 Oct22 Oct02 Sep03 (boucher lilith)BOUCHER MELL 140 15.00 ★    
  (by LEA out of DYNAVERSE by DYNAFORMER)
4  TOP BRASS (GB) Oct22 Oct08 Sep19 May07 Mar31 (young lesl)KORRELL VIRGINIA 147 8.00 17% 5.00    
  (by GLENEAGLES (IRE) out of CALIFORNIA by AZAMOUR (IRE))
5  FRONTLINE CITIZEN (IRE)         (beecher mark)LEVENTHAL ALEX 151 6.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of FOREIGN CITIZEN by PRESENTING (GB))
6  BOOBY TRAP Nov05 Oct15 Sep15     (young leslie )TIERNEY CONOR 158 3.00 32% 2.10    
  (by HARD SPUN out of BAIL OUT KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
7  LEFT BLANK Oct22 Oct08 Sep09 Aug05 Jul18 (wyatt todd)SCULLY ELIZABETH 147 10.00 28% 2.50    
  (by SEVILLE out of BLANK INIVITION by NOT FOR LOVE)
 
WIL-2   05/13/2023 11880ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($15K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EYE OF GUNFIGHTER May07 Mar31 Feb22 Feb18 Jan15 (smith lawrenc)GALLIGAN MARK 149 15.00 13% 6.50    
2  GREYLOVER Oct15 Jun11 May27 May07 Apr01 (beecher mark)TETT FREDERICK 146 1.20    
3  UNDERCOVER ROWDY (IRE)         (brion keri)BOUCHER MELL 147 2.00 34% 1.90    
4  THOMOND PARK Mar25 Nov05 Oct29 Oct02 Sep16 (hendriks r)KORRELL VIRGINIA 147 6.00 28% 2.60    
5  POINT OF GRACE Mar25 Nov05 Oct21 Sep25 Aug24 (boucher lilith)BOUCHER R 154 8.00    
6  BIG RED CARDINAL Oct21 Oct08 Sep30 Sep11 Aug23 (gomens julie)GERAGHTY ROSS 146 10.00    
 
WIL-3   05/13/2023 11880ft TURF RC11 FIRM Rose Tree Cup Purse ($20K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SENOR SEVILLE Mar25 Nov05 Oct15     (hodsdon danie)GERAGHTY ROSS 150 20.00    
  (by SEVILLE (GER) out of LADINA by WILD AGAIN)
2  WIGHTMAN (IRE)         (young lesl)KORRELL VIRGINIA 148 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ANJAAL out of DEFENSIVE BOAST by EL GRAN SENOR)
3  RHEBUS ROAD (IRE)         (dowling will)TETT FREDERICK 158 4.00 35% 1.80    
  (by CHAMPS ELYSEES out of RED RIDDLE by RED RANSOM)
4  OSCAR WINNER Apr28 Mar30 Mar09 Feb11 Jan26 (young f)WATTS MARK 157 8.00    
  (by LORD SHANAKILL out of RED PEAK by RIMROD)
5  SEA MAST         (valentine richa)MILLER ZACH 152 15.00    
  (by MIZZEN MAST out of SEALINGTON by HARLINGTON)
6  FEARSOME (GB) Nov05 Oct15 Aug08     (murphy cyril)SWOPE ERIN 148 3.00 28% 2.60    
  (by MAKFI (GB) out of LIXIAN (GB) by LINAMIX (FR))
7  YANKEE DOODLE BOY Mar25 Nov13 Oct22 Oct08   (fout doug)CULLINANE BRYAN 150 10.00 ★    
  (by DECLARATION OF WAR out of MISS LAA DI DA (GB) by DR FONG)
8  DURRAGH (IRE)         (young leslie )TIERNEY CONOR 145 8.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of LAYLATI by GREEN DESERT)
9  NEW APPOINTMENT (IRE) Nov05 Oct02 Aug22 Aug08 Jul11 (brion keri)BOUCHER MELL 148 6.00 8% 11.70    
  (by NEW APPROACH out of IRISH QUESTION by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
10  ANTICIPATING Mar25         (morris r)GALLIGAN MARK 151 10.00    
  (by OVERANALYZE out of CONFINED by MOJAVE MOON)
SCR  BELLA COOLA Nov05 Oct02 Aug22 Jul26   (voss eliza)SCULLY ELIZABETH 145 20.00    
  (by IMAGINING out of ZAFEEN'S PEARL by ZAFEEN (FR))
12  JUNONIA Mar25         (morris r)CUNDITH SARAH 144 15.00    
  (by CITY ZIP out of SANIBEL STAR by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
WIL-4   05/13/2023 18480ft TURF RC11 FIRM Buttonwood/Sycamore Farm Willowdale Steeplechase Purse ($35K) 5UP ALL PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MONBEG STREAM (IRE) Apr22 May14       (young f)NO RIDER 170 1.20 64% 0.60    
  (by LIBERTARIAN out of NO ORDINARY LOVE by EXPELLED)
2  GREAT ROAD Apr22 Nov06       (davies g)PORETZ ERIC 160 3.00    
  (by THREE CHOPT ROAD out of GOODNESS GREATNESS by ALBERT THE GREAT)
3  RENEGADE RIVER Apr22 Mar27       (dowling william)DALY GEORGE 170 2.00 ★    
  (by BELLAMY ROAD out of RIVER DYNA by DYNAFORMER)
4  FLAMING SWORD (IRE) Mar26 Oct22 Oct08     (valentine richa)MILLER ZACH 155 4.00    
  (by GOLD WELL (GB) out of TRICKY PRESENT (IRE) by PRESENTING (GB))
 
WIL-5   05/13/2023 15840ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($15K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MARKET BUBBLE Oct08 Aug01       (fisher joh)SCULLY ELIZABETH 160 6.00    
  (by FED BIZ out of TULIPMANIA by EMPIRE MAKER)
2  TO BE OR NOT TO BE Apr15         (davies g)PORETZ ERIC 165 2.00 47% 1.10    
  (by LIMEHOUSE out of ISABEL HARP by MOJAVE MOON)
3  PROFITEER Apr22         (stifel adair)NO RIDER 165 15.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of HIT IT RICH by SMART STRIKE)
4  PADDY'S CROWN         (hannum emily)MILLER ZACH 165 10.00    
  (by PADDY O'PRADO out of CROWN OF SHEBA by ALYSHEBA)
5  ISLAND NATION (IRE)         (neilson kathy)TIERNEY CONOR 158 3.00 13% 6.90    
  (by UNKNOWN out of RETHINK by RAVEN'S PASS)
6  THE BUTLER YATES (IRE) May07 Apr22       (young f)NO RIDER 165 4.00 19% 4.20    
  (by YEATS out of KERRY'S GIRL by FLEMENSFIRTH)
7  BROOKLYN SPEIGHTS Apr15 Mar26       (beecher mark)TETT FREDERICK 165 8.00 ★    
  (by BIG BROWN out of STARS AND SPEIGHTS by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
 
WIL-6   05/13/2023 15840ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($10K) 5UP ALL PT- 3:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HUYANA Apr22         (stifel ada)SCULLY ELIZABETH 165 2.00 ★    
2  OUR FRIEND (IRE) Apr22         (davies g)TAYLOR ERIKA 165 1.80    
3  AWESOME ADRIAN Apr15 Mar27       (neilson kathy)TIERNEY CONOR 170 0.80 50% 1.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.