Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Will Rogers Downs
Tuesday - March 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

WRD-1   WIN (1/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/2)-(1/2/3/4/5) 8 $2.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/2)-(1/2/3/4/5)-(1/2/3/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/2)-(2/6/7) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2)-(2/6/7)-(4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
WRD-2   WIN (2/6/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/7)-(2/6/7/1/4) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    TRI (2/6/7)-(2/6/7/1/4)-(2/6/7/1/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (2/6/7)-(4/3) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/6/7)-(4/3)-(5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
WRD-3   WIN (4/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/3)-(4/3/5/2/1) 8 $2.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/3)-(4/3/5/2/1)-(4/3/5/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3)-(5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/3)-(5/6)-(5/1/6/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
WRD-4   WIN (5/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/6)-(5/6/3/2/7) 8 $2.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/6)-(5/6/3/2/7)-(5/6/3/2/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/6)-(5/1/6/3) 8 $2.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/6)-(5/1/6/3)-(2/4/3) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
WRD-5   WIN (5/1/6/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/6/3)-(5/1/8/6/3) 16 $2.00 $32.00 
    TRI (5/1/6/3)-(5/1/8/6/3)-(5/1/8/6/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/1/6/3)-(2/4/3) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    PK3 (5/1/6/3)-(2/4/3)-(6/1/2/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
WRD-6   WIN (2/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/3)-(2/4/3/1) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    TRI (2/4/3)-(2/4/3/1)-(2/4/3/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/4/3)-(6/1/2/3) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    PK3 (2/4/3)-(6/1/2/3)-(7/8/10) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
WRD-7   WIN (6/1/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/2/3)-(6/1/2/3/5) 16 $2.00 $32.00 
    TRI (6/1/2/3)-(6/1/2/3/5)-(6/1/2/3/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/1/2/3)-(7/8/10) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    PK3 (6/1/2/3)-(7/8/10)-(3/1/6/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
WRD-8   WIN (7/8/10) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/8/10)-(7/8/10/5/1) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    TRI (7/8/10)-(7/8/10/5/1)-(7/8/10/5/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (7/8/10)-(3/1/6/2) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    PK3 (7/8/10)-(3/1/6/2)-(5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
WRD-9   WIN (3/1/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/6/2)-(3/1/6/2/4) 16 $2.00 $32.00 
    TRI (3/1/6/2)-(3/1/6/2/4)-(3/1/6/2/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/1/6/2)-(5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
WRD-10   WIN (5) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (5)-(5/8/6/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    TRI (5)-(5/8/6/4/7)-(5/8/6/4/7) 12 $0.50 $6.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
WRD-1   03/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($13K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TREASURE COAST Mar06 Feb04 Jan27 Dec15 Nov26 (ashford ray)BIRZER E 118 1.00 59% 0.70    
GOLDBRIDGE Mar13 Dec16 Nov30 Nov03 Oct14 (gladd andy)JORDAN R 124 0.80 17% 4.90    
STAPLETON SONG Mar06 Dec14 Nov07 Oct15   (lee mark)PUSAC ALBERTO 118 12.00    
BARN SHARK Mar06 Dec16 Dec02     (oberlander)ERAMIA E 118 20.00    
CLINTON QUARINTINO Dec16 Nov14 Oct26     (pruitt m)ROMAN KEVIN 118 15.00    
 
WRD-2   03/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($25.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FORT NECESSITY Dec08 Oct27 Oct12     (corderman scott)KIMES C 124 3.00    
  (by LATENT HEAT out of CARRIE THE COWGIRL by YANKEE GENTLEMAN)
SWORD OF GOLD Dec01 Nov15 Oct28 Oct05 Sep17 (ashford ray)BIRZER E 124 2.50 45% 1.20    
  (by SONG OF THE SWORD out of LADY BE GOLD by COUNTRY BE GOLD)
MISTER TYRO Mar07 Dec16 Dec02     (oberlander jes)LINDSAY CHAD 118 12.00    
  (by COIN FLIP out of JAZZY GENIUS by EINSTEIN (BRZ))
ROWDY GALE Mar14 Dec08 Nov19 Nov05 Oct20 (oberlander)ERAMIA E 124 15.00    
  (by TWICE AS BAD out of NANCY NIGHTINGALE by MY HOME PHONE)
HORNS DOWN         (martin steve)SANCHEZ OBED 124 12.00    
  (by MISTER LUCKY CAT out of SHE'SGOTHEROWNJET by SONGANDAPRAYER)
EURO TRACKING Dec01 Nov05 Oct08 Sep17 May18 (offolter s)MORA GERARDO 124 2.00 17% 4.90    
  (by EUROEARS out of TRACK THAT CAT by TACTICAL CAT)
TOMMY TSUNAMI Mar10 Apr25 Mar29     (black mar)TRIANA JR 124 5.00 13% 6.70    
  (by DEN'S LEGACY out of OUR OWN FLAG by MR. NIGHTLINGER)
 
WRD-3   03/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC6 SLOPPY Optional Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($13K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCARLET POSITION Mar12 Jan21 Dec17 Nov22 Nov12 (davidson bre)MORA GERARDO 121 1.80    
LIL DITTY'S KITTY Sep19 Aug28 Aug06 Jul23 Jun11 (ibarra jose)SANCHEZ OBED 121 12.00    
THETRUTHISTHETRUTH Mar06 Jan20 Nov18 Aug20 Jul11 (cogburn o)TRIANA JR 121 2.00 22% 3.60    
C C THE BARTENDER Mar13 Feb18 Jan22 Jan07 Nov30 (gladd andy)KIMES C 121 3.50 52% 0.90    
NOSTALGIA Mar14 Feb26 Feb03 Jan07 Dec09 (johnston lan)JORDAN R 124 3.00    
 
WRD-4   03/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($21K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MISS CARMEN CIBO Aug31 Aug17 Jul27     (bravo fra)TRIANA JR 118 15.00    
  (by EXCAPER out of STREET REFLECTION by STREET CRY (IRE))
TOSH Mar06 Nov30       (padilla juan)PUSAC ALBERTO 124 6.00    
  (by FOREIGN POLICY out of OKIE SPIRIT by CAVVY)
RAINBOWS ARE FREE Oct27 Oct01 Sep14 Aug20 Jul03 (caster boyd)KIMES C 124 4.00    
  (by BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS out of SYNERSIS by WITH APPROVAL)
MISS ARKANSAS Mar07 Feb09 Jan14     (dixon tim)WETHEY JR 118 12.00    
  (by ANCHOR DOWN out of BURNING CREOLE by BURNING ROMA)
NORDIC QUEEN Aug04 Jun19 May21 May02 Apr11 (bravo franci)JORDAN R 124 2.00 46% 1.20    
  (by READ THE FOOTNOTES out of AWESOME EMMA by GHOSTZAPPER)
SPELL FREEDOM Feb19         (caster boyd)BIRZER E 124 1.80 28% 2.60    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of MY LUCKY SPELL by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
SPLITSECONDECISION Mar07 Feb17 Feb05 Jan15 Dec15 (davis ste)CUNNINGHAM TRAVIS 118 12.00    
  (by TAMARKUZ out of MUSADAQA by BERNARDINI)
 
WRD-5   03/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($15.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CASINO QUEEN Nov30 Nov12 Oct21 Sep29 Sep08 (biehler michael )BIRZER E 121 2.50 26% 2.90    
CUPIDS LOVE Dec02 Nov12 Nov04 Oct14 Aug28 (biehler michae)LINDSAY CHAD 121 6.00    
ACERTIVE MISS Mar13 Dec14 Nov30 Oct19 Oct08 (corderman s)HERRERA GUSTAVO 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
DAKAMO ROSE Feb17 Sep14 Aug19 Jul12 Jun21 (black mar)TRIANA JR 121 15.00    
TAYLOR'S VISION Mar14 Dec17 Dec03 Nov03 Oct07 (padilla juan)MORA GERARDO 121 3.00 44% 1.30    
WIREWIREWIRE Oct05 Sep14 Jul18 Jun14 May25 (david ron)ERAMIA E 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
STRONG WOMAN Dec07 Nov12 Nov04 Oct21 Sep16 (davidson brent)KIMES C 121 5.00    
EXCETERA Mar13 Dec14 Nov03 Oct05 Sep14 (ferrell jor)WETHEY JR 121 3.00    
 
WRD-6   03/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RACE DAY REBAL Dec03 Nov19 Nov05 Sep16 May03 (williams )CUNNINGHAM TRAVIS 124 3.00    
AQUIMINE Feb17 Jan10 Dec14 Nov18 Oct22 (ashford ray)BIRZER E 124 1.60 47% 1.10    
DANCING DEVIL Mar14 Dec17 Dec07 Nov25 Oct28 (hale vi)BAILEY CHEL-C 124 2.00 10% 8.70    
BLUEGRASS BREEZE Mar04 Feb18 Dec14 Dec01 Nov11 (black mar)TRIANA JR 124 3.50 17% 4.90    
SCR  LYNN'S FOLLY Mar06 Oct14 Sep17     (chavira )BENN J 119 20.00    
 
WRD-7   03/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($25.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BABY LIAISON Mar13 Dec16 Nov19 Oct20 Sep30 (gladd andy)PUSAC ALBERTO 118 4.00 13% 6.50    
  (by LIAISON out of BABY K by KENNEDY)
TRUE DOMINUS Dec01 Oct28 Oct08 Sep08 Aug27 (mitchell ralph)KIMES C 124 2.50 12% 7.60    
  (by DOMINUS out of TRUE YOLO by YES IT'S TRUE)
MAJESTIC LIAISON         (corderman scot)SANCHEZ OBED 118 6.00 6% 15.20    
  (by LIAISON out of MAJESTIC CHIVETTE by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
C C'S LEGACY Mar13         (young scott)WETHEY JR 118 5.00    
  (by DEN'S LEGACY out of C C'S SONG by MY GOLDEN SONG)
AWESOME OUTLAW Feb26 Feb04 Dec16 Nov19 Oct26 (pruitt m)ROMAN KEVIN 118 5.00    
  (by MAJESTIC HUSSAR out of REENLIST by MILITARY)
PAPA BILL Mar07 Dec14 Dec02 Nov05 Oct08 (oberlander)ERAMIA E 118 3.00 47% 1.10    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of MUDLAFF CHARLIE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
HAMMER DOWN May18 Apr26 Apr11     (brooks jimm)HERRERA GUSTAVO 124 20.00    
  (by PETE'S WONDER out of OKIE N AROUND by CHEROKEE FIVE)
 
WRD-8   03/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($23K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NOTARY Mar12 Jan22 Jun19 May06 Mar31 (mason ingrid)WALES T 124 3.00    
HAPPY ROMANCE (IRE) Feb19 Feb05 Jan08 Dec03 Nov03 (buehrer mar)WETHEY JR null      
BIG SKIPPER Dec08 Nov18 Oct22 Oct05 Aug20 (luneack ther)JORDAN R 124 5.00    
NOMOREMRNICEGUY Dec10 Nov18 Nov05 Oct05 Sep10 (sneed todd)LANDEROS C 124 20.00    
GUNNER PAUL Mar13 Feb25 Feb10 Jan14 Dec02 (caldwell r)COLLIER T 121 3.50    
GOSPEL MUSKETEER Jan21 Dec15 Nov15 Oct21 Oct14 (williams stev)PUSAC ALBERTO 124 20.00    
THOUGHT Feb20 Dec30 Nov10 Oct06 Aug27 (black mar)TRIANA JR 124 4.00 42% 1.40    
INCA EMPIRE Jan08 Dec17 Dec02 Oct28 Oct01 (offolter s)MORA GERARDO 124 8.00 27% 2.70    
POKER PLAY Mar07 Feb17 Dec14 Nov18 Nov02 (caster boyd)KIMES C 124 15.00    
10  SMOKING GUN (GB) Mar07 Feb10 Jan12 Dec29 Nov30 (birzer bonnie)BIRZER E 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
WRD-9   03/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($11K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RUNQUIETLY Mar07 Dec09 Oct03 Aug24 Aug08 (birzer bonnie)BIRZER E 124 3.50 13% 6.50    
PISSARRO'S MANDATE Nov02 Sep21 Sep01 Jun07 May24 (gladd andy)KIMES C 124 5.00 9% 10.10    
ROMANCER Mar11 Feb05 Jan22 Dec09 Nov19 (johnston la)STILLION BROOKE 124 6.00 38% 1.60    
MAJOR GRIFFIN Mar07 Dec10 Dec02 Jul19 Jun20 (camillo ang)HERRERA GUSTAVO 124 20.00    
WHO'S BIG DADDY Nov08 Oct05 Sep19 Aug15 Jul16 (stephens jerry)LINDSAY CHAD 124 20.00    
FREER Mar02 Feb10 Jan27 Sep11 Aug27 (stephens jer)JORDAN R 124 2.00 10% 9.50    
ELUSIVE FREUD Mar07 Dec10 Dec02 Nov19 Nov08 (corderman scot)SANCHEZ OBED 124 20.00    
ROBERT'S GHOST Dec16 Nov25 Nov11 Oct22 Sep14 (gladd andy)ROMAN KEVIN 124 3.00    
 
WRD-10   03/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($27.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MINGUS Mar07 Dec16 Dec02 Nov05   (biehler m)TRIANA JR 118 12.00    
SCR  CIMARRON SAND Nov30 Oct26 Sep17     (bravo francisc)LINDSAY CHAD 118 15.00    
HOPGUN Oct28 Sep29 Sep10     (lee mark)ROMAN KEVIN 124 15.00    
BIG CITY BOY Mar07 Dec17 Nov22 Nov05 Oct06 (hartman alex)JORDAN R 124 4.00    
MIRANDEN Mar07 Feb05 Jan21 Dec17 Nov05 (young scott)WETHEY JR 124 1.40 72% 0.40    
FURIOUS AVENGER Nov30 Nov19 Oct26     (biehler michael )BIRZER E 118 6.00    
JUST OKIE Mar07 Nov30 Nov21 Nov11 Oct21 (padilla juan)MORA GERARDO 118 6.00    
CRAZY LOVER Mar07 Dec17 Dec01 Nov22 Nov12 (moreno carlos)PUSAC ALBERTO 124 12.00    
GOSPEL TRUTH Dec01 Oct28 Oct05 Sep17 May09 (williams f)KIMES C 124 20.00    
10  PRAIRIE DOLLAR Dec08 Nov15 Oct27 Oct05 Sep24 (rodriguez mar)FUENTES ERICK 119 20.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.