Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Saratoga
Thursday - July 21, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
SAR-1   07/21/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($105K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DRINK THE WIND Jul03 Jun12       (catalano wayne)ROSARIO JOEL 119 3.00 27% 2.70    
2  FRAT PACK         (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 2.00 10% 9.00    
3  INSOMNIAC         (pletcher todd )LEZCANO JOSE 119 8.00 ★    
4  BE THERE Apr02 Mar13       (zito nic)GOMEZ ANTONIO 114 30.00 ★    
5  CITIZEN MACK         (mcgaughey clau)ORTIZ L 119 10.00    
6  UP TO THE MARK         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 119 1.20 39% 1.60    
 
SAR-2   07/21/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Handicap ($25K) Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS Jun30         (baker charlton)ROSARIO JOEL 119 3.50 ★    
2  KUMAR Jun03 May06 Apr09 Mar05 Feb11 (rodriguez gust)LEZCANO JOSE 117 4.50 ★    
3  BLAKE B. Jun04 Apr30 Mar26 Feb26 Feb06 (romero jesus)CANCEL ERIC 116 15.00    
4  NO BURN Jun16 May29 May21 Apr07 Mar04 (barrera s)DAVIS DYLAN 121 3.00 48% 1.10    
5  PERCEIVED Jun16 May15 Apr10 Feb26 Feb04 (rodriguez rud)ORTIZ JR 120 2.00 ★    
6  PALACE COUP Jun18 Mar19 Jan29     (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 14% 6.00    
 
SAR-3   07/21/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  I AM THE LAW Jun12 May15 Apr23 Mar27   (terranova john)ROSARIO JOEL 125 10.00    
2  HATCH (GB) May29 Apr23 Feb11 Jan14   (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 12.00    
3  CASH IN A FLASH Jun10 May13 Apr14     (casse mark)VELAZQUEZ R 125 4.50 8% 11.20    
4  RESILIENT COURAGE Jun19 May20 Apr22 Feb25 Jan16 (donk david)ORTIZ L 120 15.00    
SCR  ICARUS Jun18 Apr29 Mar05 Feb10   (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.00 8% 11.00    
SCR  ST. JOE LOUIS (GB) Jun25 Apr15 Feb27 Jan14   (brown c)ORTIZ JR 123 1.60 25% 3.00    
7  AL'S PRINCE Jul15 Jun05 Apr15 Mar05   (englehart jeffr)DAVIS DYLAN 125 6.00 ★    
SCR  HOMETOWN         (atras rob)RIDER TBA 123 0.60 38% 1.60    
SCR  INSPIRATION POINT Jul04 May29 Apr10 Mar13 Feb16 (englehart chris)CANCEL ERIC 123 6.00    
 
SAR-4   07/21/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($83K) 2 ALL PT- 2:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RUN POPPY Jun26         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 38% 1.60    
SCR  SMART PRIZE Jun26         (casse mark)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 3.50 15% 5.80    
3  FORBIDDEN SECRET         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 119 3.00 16% 5.40    
4  KBCYA LATER Jun22 May29       (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 ★    
5  V MART         (avila carl)OLIVERO A 119 6.00    
6  CLEAR THE DECK Jun26 Jun08       (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 4.50 11% 8.40    
7  FOURFAITH         (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 119 12.00    
SCR  TYVER         (chichakly amira)CANCEL ERIC 119 30.00    
 
SAR-5   07/21/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($36K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG AL'S GAL Jul02 May19 Apr07 Mar18 Feb25 (dip)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  AIDANIKE Jun11 May06 Apr03 Feb20 Jan08 (lucas bonnie)ORTIZ JR 124 2.50 29% 2.50    
3  BAY JEWEL Jun26 Jun12       (summers )SANTANA JR 122 8.00    
4  GREATEST LOVE Jun19 Jun04 May19 Apr15 Feb13 (rodriguez gust)ROSARIO JOEL 122 1.50 33% 2.10    
5  DOMINEER Jun25 Jun05 May13 Apr15 Feb25 (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 124 8.00 ★    
6  SONG OF HONOR Apr08 Feb25       (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 122 8.00    
7  GUNS BLAZING Jun26 Apr22 Apr07 Feb21 Jan16 (reynolds)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 6.00 9% 10.30    
8  MY GIRL LEXI Jun24 May19 Apr22 Apr07 Mar26 (ferraro )DAVIS A 124 15.00    
 
SAR-6   07/21/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($83K) 2 ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  NOBLE CONNECTION         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
SCR  EE YAH Jun04         (lucas bonnie)ORTIZ JR 119 4.50 46% 1.20    
3  BARZINI         (trombetta michael)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 26% 2.80    
4  A WESTERN YARN         (delacour ar)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 6.00    
5  IN DETAIL         (camejo m)ORTIZ L 119 5.00 ★    
6  CARA'S PRINCE Jul01 Jun09       (friedman mit)CASTELLANO J 119 15.00    
7  THREE ZERO Jun30 Jun08 May20     (abreu fernan)BRIDGMOHAN X 119 6.00 ★    
8  JEREMY'S JET Jun26 Jun09 May20 May12   (mcentee paul)DAVIS DYLAN 119 8.00 ★    
 
SAR-7   07/21/2022 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($125K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SMOOTH B May23 Apr26 Mar29 Feb19   (reid e)LEZCANO JOSE 122 15.00 ★    
2  PRINCIPLED STAND (GB) Jun23 May13       (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 124 2.50 13% 7.00    
SCR  MAXWELL ESQUIRE Jul04 May29 May12     (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 5.00 ★    
4  IT'S A GAMBLE Jul03 Jun02 May05 Apr09   (breen j)ROSARIO JOEL 122 6.00    
5  ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS Jul04 Jun09 May12 Apr09 Feb05 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.50 60% 0.70    
6  BIG PACKAGE Jun23 Apr30       (donk david)ORTIZ L 122 3.00 ★    
SCR  NOTHING BETTER Jun17 May22       (duarte jorge )ORTIZ JR 124 6.00    
 
SAR-8   07/21/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 GOOD Allowance Purse ($95K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  U GUYS ARE NO FUN Jun15 May18       (englehart jer)ORTIZ JR 125 1.80 19% 4.10    
2  CAPTAINSDAUGHTER Jul03 May30 May14 Mar27   (cash russel)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 3.50 ★    
3  CARAGATE Jun24 May27 Apr09 Feb21   (friedman mit)CASTELLANO J 120 2.00 38% 1.60    
SCR  ELEGANT LAOBAN May29 May08 Apr10 Mar18 Feb24 (o'brien )GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 50.00 5% 19.00    
5  STIMULUS CHECK Jul04 Jun20 Jun01 May18   (iorio jr)CARMOUCHE K 125 12.00 13% 6.90    
6  REIGNING CHICK Apr10 Feb21 Jan23     (noda orlando)ORTIZ L 118 6.00    
7  MIA BEA STAR Jun24 Jun18 May27 Apr02 Mar25 (persaud ran)ALVARADO JUNIOR 123 8.00    
 
SAR-9   07/21/2022 5610ft TURF RC2 GOOD nongraded Stake Purse ($125K) 3 ALL PT- 5:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STOP THE SPREAD Jun13 May28       (caramori eduar)LEZCANO ABEL 118 50.00    
2  SUNDAESWITHSANDY May01 Apr07       (rodriguez rudy)ORTIZ L 118 12.00 ★    
3  COINAGE Jul04 May07 Apr08 Mar05 Feb05 (casse mark)SAEZ LUIS 123 2.50 8% 11.00    
4  DAKOTA GOLD Jun19         (gargan danny)ORTIZ JR 123 0.80 47% 1.10    
SCR  TIMBUKTU Jun24 Apr30       (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 118 8.00 7% 14.20    
SCR  SEAVER Jul01 May13 Apr22     (hills a)DAVIS DYLAN 118 20.00    
7  PRACTICE SQUAD Jul01 Jun05 May01 Feb28   (sharp joe)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 4.50 14% 6.20    
SCR  COMPROMISER Jun30 Jun09       (grossman r)RIDER TBA 118 8.00    
 
SAR-10   07/21/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($105K) 2 F PT- 6:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TELL ME WHEN Jun23         (hamm timothy)ORTIZ L 119 10.00 18% 4.50    
2  SUGAR MAMAS CAKERY Jul01         (asmussen steve)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 8.00 ★    
3  FACTOR THAT Jun24         (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 18% 4.60    
4  SHACKLED BY LUST Jun19         (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
SCR  MARGARET BURBIDGE         (ward a)ORTIZ JR 119 2.50 18% 4.50    
6  AMERICAN ROCKETTE         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 3.00 21% 3.70    
SCR  STRUT         (motion grah)FRANCO MANUEL 119 12.00    
8  DETERMINED JESTER         (schoenthal )MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 15.00    
9  GEORGEES SPIRIT         (abreu r)ROSARIO JOEL 119 4.50    
10  ANOTHERDAYGONEBY Jul11 Jun23 Jun08     (sideris nich)BRIDGMOHAN X 119 30.00    
11  BINSKY         (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 119 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.