Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Tampa Bay Downs
Friday - April 11, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TAM-1   WIN (1/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/4)-(1/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/6/4)-(1/6/4)-(1/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/6/4)-(6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/6/4)-(6/3)-(3/5/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TAM-2   WIN (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/3)-(6/7/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3)-(6/7/1/3)-(6/7/1/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (6/3)-(3/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/3)-(3/5/6)-(3/4/2) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TAM-3   WIN (3/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/6)-(3/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/6)-(3/5/6)-(3/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/6)-(3/4/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/5/6)-(3/4/2)-(1/5/3/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TAM-4   WIN (3/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/2)-(3/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/2)-(3/4/2)-(3/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/4/2)-(1/5/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/4/2)-(1/5/3/6)-(6/3/4/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-5   WIN (1/5/3/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/5/3/6)-(1/5/8/3/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/5/3/6)-(1/5/8/3/6)-(1/5/8/3/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/5/3/6)-(6/3/4/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/5/3/6)-(6/3/4/1)-(8/4/3/9) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
TAM-6   WIN (6/3/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/3/4/1)-(6/3/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/3/4/1)-(6/3/4/1)-(6/3/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/3/4/1)-(8/4/3/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/3/4/1)-(8/4/3/9)-(8/7/4/6) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
TAM-7   WIN (8/4/3/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/4/3/9)-(8/4/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/3/9)-(8/4/3/9)-(8/4/3/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/4/3/9)-(8/7/4/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/4/3/9)-(8/7/4/6)-(9/8/3/4/1) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
TAM-8   WIN (8/7/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/7/4/6)-(8/7/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/7/4/6)-(8/7/4/6)-(8/7/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/7/4/6)-(9/8/3/4/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
TAM-9   WIN (9/8/3/4/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/8/3/4/1)-(9/8/3/4/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/8/3/4/1)-(9/8/3/4/1)-(9/8/3/4/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TAM-1   04/11/2025 5400ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($18.5K) 4UP M/F PT-12:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHABAM Mar05 Jan01 Dec13 Nov23 Oct10 (arnett g)MARIN SAMUEL 120 2.00 47% 1.10    
2  CINDY'S SONG Mar05 Jan17 Nov30 Sep07 Aug16 (rondon-mora carl)BRACHO A 120 3.50    
3  BULLET ON TAP Mar23 Mar01 Aug18 Aug09 Jul12 (charl)DIAZ RAFAEL 120 15.00    
4  FABULOUS CANDY Mar05 Feb02 Jan17 Jan08 Dec21 (moysey chelse)VARGAS E 110 6.00 12% 7.60    
5  JENAS MERCY Mar08 Feb16 Feb02 Dec20 Nov10 (orantes r)LEON SONNY 120 10.00    
6  VIKING QUEEN Mar23 Mar07 Jan26 Jan08 Jan01 (ward dennis)FERRER C 120 1.60 15% 5.50    
 
TAM-2   04/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($20K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AUGER Mar23 Mar12 Feb14 Feb01 Jan15 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 122 2.50 ★    
2  DESANTIS Mar23 Mar12 Feb01 Jan15 Dec11 (bennett geral)IORIO MELISSA 118 6.00    
3  JOHN'S PROMISE Apr02 Mar12 Feb01 Jan15 Jan05 (simone v)LEON SONNY 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  TOP RECRUIT Jan31 Dec22 Mar10 Aug12 Jun04 (josep)DIAZ RAFAEL 118 4.50    
5  LITIGANT Mar23 Feb14 Jan31 Jan15 Jan01 (ochoa gerard)MARIN SAMUEL 118 4.00    
6  ARAK Dec06 Oct21 Oct01 Sep18 Aug28 (davis scoo)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 118 3.50 62% 0.60    
7  MAKIZAN Mar19 Mar07 Feb02 Jan19 Dec20 (campbell joe)BATISTA A 118 6.00 ★    
 
TAM-3   04/11/2025 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($53K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:37
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNICYCLE         (vigil jaime)BATISTA A 118 15.00    
  (by UNIFIED out of KEEWATIN ICE by INTIDAB)
2  SHARE REPURCHASE         (brown)DIAZ RAFAEL 118 4.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of QASWARA by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
3  ELITE HEAT (GB) Feb15 Nov23       (cox brad)GALLARDO A 118 2.00 49% 1.00    
  (by TOO DARN HOT out of FORMIDABLE KITT by INVINCIBLE SPIRIT)
4  LOW KEY IN LOVE Mar16         (brown c)MARIN SAMUEL 118 1.60    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of INLOVEWITHLOVE by BERNSTEIN)
5  ENCHANT Mar15 Feb21 Jan31 Jan11 Dec21 (dini mike)FERRER C 125 5.00 19% 4.40    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of COACHWHIP by SO YOU THINK (NZ))
6  MISHKA Mar15 Feb05 Aug13 Jun25 May17 (seale christophe)LEON SONNY 125 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of GOLD DUST WOMAN by DISTORTED HUMOR)
 
TAM-4   04/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($20K) 3 ALL PT- 2:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WE CALLED SOL Mar21 Feb28 Feb07 Jan15   (mcgoey monic)GONZALEZ CESAR 113 20.00    
SCR  SO GRAND Mar06 Jan25 Sep11 Aug11   (seale christop)MARIN SAMUEL 120 8.00 15% 5.60    
3  MR. SWEETS Mar19 Mar01 Feb07 Jan08   (hamm )DIAZ RAFAEL 120 1.20 33% 2.00    
4  HIGHS N LOWS Mar15 Sep09 Aug28 Aug12 Jul24 (rice kev)RODRIGUEZ O 120 6.00 20% 4.10    
5  MY PAL MAX Feb22         (ellebracht gary)FERRER C 120 3.00    
SCR  BUZZSAW Mar02 Feb02 Jan04 Dec20 Nov23 (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 120 6.00    
SCR  LUTZ         (carrascojr v)MENESES MARCOS 120 8.00    
 
TAM-5   04/11/2025 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($20K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MUCHOMACHOMAC Mar16 Feb09 Jan12 Dec22 Dec01 (kutt m)FERRER C 124 1.60 54% 0.80    
2  VITTORIANO Feb23 Feb07 Jan12 Dec27 May03 (agostini arth)IORIO MELISSA 124 30.00    
3  KADAR INDY Mar16 Mar01 Feb05 Jan12 Feb02 (cascallares nestor)BUSH V 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  BLUE SKY'S SYL Mar26 Jan10 Mar15     (wasiluk peter )ALLEN D 124 20.00    
5  STOW ON THE WOLD Mar26 Feb28 Oct13 Sep15 Jul27 (carra)DIAZ RAFAEL 124 6.00 23% 3.30    
6  NOBLE HERO Mar22 May12 May01 Apr13 Apr03 (dobber ar)RODRIGUEZ ANTHONY 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  DOMINATOR C. Apr02 Mar26 Mar16 Dec06 Apr28 (baez ral)RODRIGUEZ O 124 15.00    
8  AMERICAN WIND Mar26 Mar14 Feb23     (ochoa gerard)MARIN SAMUEL 124 2.00 ★    
9  OCEAN SOUL Mar26 Apr21       (smith robert)MENESES MARCOS 124 30.00    
10  KEEN SURGE Mar21 Mar02       (laurato mi)FUKUMOTO DAISUKE 118 8.00    
SCR  PROTEST Mar22 Oct04 Sep16     (march william)BUSH V 124 6.00    
SCR  YADIRAYADIRAYADIRA Mar19 Oct06       (mcgoey monic)GONZALEZ CESAR 111 20.00    
SCR  AMOR GITANO Mar07 Jan05 Dec12 Oct19 Sep29 (agostini)RODRIGUEZ O 118 30.00    
 
TAM-6   04/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($53K) 3 F PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOP POCKET PICK Jan11         (vinson g)MORALES PABLO 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BUCCHERO out of PICK THE DOUBLE by DOUBLE HONOR)
2  I CAN EXPLAIN Sep14 Aug25       (mcburney patrick)LEON SONNY 120 30.00    
  (by SEA WIZARD out of SPA SUNRISE by EDDINGTON)
3  MOON GATE Mar22 Jan26 Jul18 Jun21   (cleme)DIAZ RAFAEL 120 2.50 21% 3.70    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of SINE WAVE by BIG BROWN)
4  BREEZEY Z May16         (yates mi)GALLARDO A 120 3.00 20% 4.10    
  (by CAJUN BREEZE out of BELLA CAPRI Z by STRONG HOPE)
5  SOMEKINDA SPECIAL Mar08         (stewart chad)MENESES MARCOS 120 12.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of DANA MY LOVE by CITY ZIP)
6  AURELIA'S MISCHIEF Jun14         (cox h)MARIN SAMUEL 120 1.20 37% 1.70    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of LADY AURELIA by SCAT DADDY)
7  CHOSEN FACTOR Mar22 Feb01 Jan15 Dec21   (gulick m)CASTANON L 120 15.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of STARSHIPUNFAITHFUL by DIALED IN)
 
TAM-7   04/11/2025 5610ft TURF RC6 FIRM Optional Claiming ($32K) Purse ($33K) 3 F PT- 3:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY EMBRACE Mar21 Feb16 Dec27 Dec04   (o'connel)GALLARDO A 118 4.50    
2  SPARKLING RUBY Mar29 Mar09 Feb28 Dec07 Oct03 (arriagad)RODRIGUEZ O 118 5.00    
3  MS KENDRICK B. Feb15 Feb01 Jan15 Dec29 Dec07 (bennett geral)IORIO MELISSA 118 12.00 8% 11.40    
4  NOTABLE EXCHANGE Mar21 Feb28 Feb09     (dini mike)CASTANON L 122 3.50 30% 2.30    
SCR  DYNA SOAR Mar21 Feb21 Jan25 Dec28 Dec07 (dini mike)CENTENO E 122 6.00    
SCR  SECURITYLIGHTNING Mar16 Feb09 Jan25 Dec11 Sep21 (o'connell kat)IORIO MELISSA 118 4.00    
7  MISS RUMMIKUB (FR) Mar08 Feb08 Jan25 Dec04 Nov06 (moreno-barban l)BEATO INOEL 118 10.00    
8  PERKY Mar15         (clement christ)MARIN SAMUEL 122 2.00 32% 2.20    
9  PRAYED FOR GIRL Mar21 Feb05 Dec11 Aug31 Aug10 (dobber w)LEON SONNY 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
TAM-8   04/11/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($27.5K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MORETASTIC Mar30 Mar09 Feb21 Jan24 Jan01 (bowersoc)GALLARDO A 118 6.00    
SCR  ZIP CODE ENVY Mar15 Feb28 Jan19 Dec04 Oct26 (wasiluk pete)BATISTA A 118 8.00    
3  SWEET LAURA Mar01 Feb08 Jan10 Dec04 Oct08 (arnett g)MARIN SAMUEL 118 3.00    
4  EXPLOSIVE EXCHANGE Mar23 Feb21 Jan22 Oct18 Sep27 (simone m)RODRIGUEZ O 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  D' TIGER LILY Sep14 Aug25 Jul20 Jun30 May18 (wilson tony)IORIO MELISSA 118 6.00    
6  MO'S VINO MESA Mar16 Feb19 Jan25 Dec28 Dec04 (wilson tony)MENESES MARCOS 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  MARVELOUS LADY Mar26 Jan31 Jan12 Dec20 Dec06 (rarick lynn)ALLEN D 118 4.00 30% 2.30    
8  PRACTICALITY Mar30 Feb23 Jan31 Jan12 Dec27 (arriagada jua)SANTOS ADEMAR 118 3.50 32% 2.20    
 
TAM-9   04/11/2025 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($32K) Purse ($54K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DRAMA CHORUS Mar30 Mar02 Dec27 Dec06 Oct13 (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TWO STEPPIN KLUKI Feb15 Dec14 Nov30 Oct03 Sep14 (cudworth paul)COTTO L 119 30.00    
3  MAGICAL MARRIAGE Mar12 Feb15 Dec14 Sep14 Aug03 (mcburney patrick)LEON SONNY 119 6.00 16% 5.30    
4  SUMMER CAUSE Feb07 Dec12 Nov07 Sep15 Apr06 (clement christ)MARIN SAMUEL 119 4.00 5% 19.00    
5  I'M ON FIRE Sep02 Jul06 Jun09 May12 Apr19 (mcburney patr)IORIO MELISSA 119 20.00    
6  TATANKA Mar14 Feb26 Feb08 Jan24 Dec28 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 119 12.00    
7  E MINOR Mar22 Mar14 Feb12 Jan18 Dec14 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 119 8.00    
8  ROYAL LUCK (CHI) Mar22 Feb22 Jan18 Dec24 Nov23 (arriagad)RODRIGUEZ O 119 3.00 21% 3.80    
9  RETOUCH (FR)         (brown ch)GALLARDO A 119 2.00 38% 1.60    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.