Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Montpelier
Saturday - November 05, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
MTP-1   11/05/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 Allowance Purse   3UP ALL PT-12:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNCLE JEROME Oct15 Sep30 Aug27 Aug06 Jul07 (smith lawre)GALLIGAN GERARD 155   ★    
2  MYGRANDMAISRACHEL         (mulligan edwa)GARNER THOMAS 150      
3  BELLARMINE HALL Oct15 Sep07 Aug29 Jul20 Apr01 (bourke david )BARGARY JAMIE 155   10% 9.50    
4  GRUNION         (yovanovich )WOODSON MICHAEL 145      
5  KEN LOVES KITTEN Aug22 Aug10 May19 Apr17   (bourke m)NO RIDER 150   ★    
6  RUM BOBBY         (mulligan e)BESWICK HARRISON 155   9% 10.70    
7  SHOOTIN THE BREEZE         (neilson kat)HENDRIKS PARKER 155   56% 0.80    
 
MTP-2   11/05/2022 12540ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($30K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FEARSOME (GB) Oct15 Aug08       (murphy cyr)BESWICK HARRISON 156   36% 1.80    
2  QUEENS EMPIRE (IRE) Oct08 May14       (fisher r)BARGARY JAMIE 153      
SCR  PROJECT TWO (IRE) Oct15 Aug31 Aug01     (young leslie)BRENNAN NATHAN 152   ★    
SCR  TOP BRASS (GB) Oct22 Oct08 Sep19 May07 Mar31 (young leslie )GARNER THOMAS 151   10% 9.20    
5  SENOR SEVILLE Oct15         (hodsdon danie)GERAGHTY ROSS 153      
6  HE'LL DO Oct02         (brion keri)HENDRIKS PARKER 156   26% 2.80    
7  MR. BRIDGER Oct08 Aug22 Aug08     (george laird)MCDERMOTT SEAN 156   ★    
 
MTP-3   11/05/2022 12540ft TURF RC0 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($15K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GUNDRY Oct15 Sep30       (beecher mark)OWINGS BRETT 151      
2  ARROWHEART Oct22 Oct08 Jan02     (young leslie )GARNER THOMAS 152   ★    
3  DIVA OF SEVILLE Oct02         (pinkard casey)SMITH COLIN 142      
4  PLENTY IN THE TANK (IRE) Oct22         (young leslie)BRENNAN NATHAN 148   63% 0.60    
5  FEMINISTA Oct08 Sep05 Jul26 Jul01 Jun08 (brion keri)HENDRIKS PARKER 137      
SCR  DADDY'S COZY Sep16 Aug20 Aug05 Jul08 Jun08 (hodsdon danie)GERAGHTY ROSS 148      
7  ECONOMIC POLICY Oct22         (bourke lia)BESWICK HARRISON 148      
8  MERKABA Oct08 Jun21 Jun01     (dowling willi)BARGARY JAMIE 152      
9  REFI Jan17         (wyatt j)MCDERMOTT SEAN 156   ★    
10  EYE OF GUNFIGHTER Oct30 Oct22 Oct08 Sep22 Sep09 (smith lawre)GALLIGAN GERARD 156   7% 12.90    
SCR  HERO'S RETURN Oct29 Oct08       (beecher mark)BARGARY JAMIE 156   6% 16.40    
 
MTP-4   11/05/2022 12540ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WEBB Oct22 Oct02 Sep17 Aug07 Jul21 (elliott ja)BESWICK HARRISON 150      
2  MODUS OPERANDI (IRE) Oct22 Jun19 May21 May12 Apr22 (brion keri)HENDRIKS PARKER 150   6% 14.80    
3  MISSION BRIEF Oct08 Jun08       (hodsdon danie)BARGARY JAMIE 150   58% 0.70    
4  LIGHTNING ROD Oct22 Aug17 Jul04 Jun03 Apr28 (george laird)GERAGHTY ROSS 150   ★    
5  TALK OR LISTEN (IRE) Mar09 Feb05       (neilson kat)GALLIGAN GERARD 154   ★    
6  EAGERLY Oct22 Oct15 Jun04     (voss elizabet)GARNER THOMAS 154      
7  CATCHER'S MITT Oct22 Oct08 Sep21     (miller zach)NO RIDER 150      
SCR  JUKEBOX JUJU         (gomens julie)NO RIDER 142   ★    
 
MTP-5   11/05/2022 12540ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PURE COURAGE Oct15 Aug04 Jun04     (wyatt j)MCDERMOTT SEAN 150   ★    
2  SEISMIC WAVE Oct22 Oct08 Sep05 Aug29 Aug15 (morris neil)GALLIGAN GERARD 154   71% 0.40    
3  QUID Aug29 Jul11       (gomens julie)GERAGHTY ROSS 154   7% 13.80    
4  SOUTH MOUNTAIN (IRE) Oct22 Oct08       (fisher r)BARGARY JAMIE 154      
5  HILLIARD Oct21 Sep24 Sep05 Jun30 Jun05 (brion keri)HENDRIKS PARKER 150   ★    
6  KIYOMORI Oct07 Sep24       (elliott ja)BESWICK HARRISON 142   ★    
SCR  SURVEY (IRE)         (mulligan edward)SMITH COLIN 147      
 
MTP-6   11/05/2022 12540ft TURF RC2 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($50K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LEAR AVIA Oct08         (wyatt todd)SCULLY ELIZABETH 147      
2  SAIGON Oct22 Oct02 Sep10 Aug07 Jul13 (elliott jan)GALLIGAN GERARD 156   ★    
3  MOLLY FANTASY (GER) Oct22 Oct08       (brion keri)HENDRIKS PARKER 153   37% 1.70    
4  BELLA COOLA Oct02 Aug22 Jul26     (voss elizabeth)FOX FIONA 145      
5  OUR BAB (IRE) Aug22 Jul11       (young leslie )GARNER THOMAS 153      
6  SPEED ALERT         (fout dou)BESWICK HARRISON 147   ★    
7  NEW APPOINTMENT (IRE) Oct02 Aug22 Aug08 Jul11   (brion keri)MCDERMOTT SEAN 150   29% 2.50    
8  EVE'S CITY Oct02 Aug22 May14     (fout dougla)BARGARY JAMIE 142      
9  SORAMOND (GER) Oct29         (young leslie)BRENNAN NATHAN 156   9% 9.80    
 
MTP-7   11/05/2022 13200ft TURF RC2 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($60K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IRANISTAN Sep15 Jul20 May14     (brion keri)HENDRIKS PARKER 150   43% 1.30    
2  CITY DREAMER (IRE) Oct22         (fisher r)BARGARY JAMIE 148   ★    
3  SONG FOR SOMEONE (GER) Oct15 Sep15 Aug17     (young leslie)BRENNAN NATHAN 152      
4  DUC DE MERAN (FR) Oct22 Oct08       (murphy cyr)BESWICK HARRISON 144   ★    
5  BODES WELL (IRE) Oct22 Oct08       (young leslie )GARNER THOMAS 144   25% 3.00    
6  ASK PADDINGTON (IRE) Oct15 Sep15 May28     (brion keri)MCDERMOTT SEAN 158   ★    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.